Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Mahan Abedin
-
Ahmadinejad throws down the gauntlet to the Iranian establishment
As Iran sinks deeper into economic crisis, the establishment is scrambling to contain the situation. To illustrate the point, establishment grandees, like Ahmad Jannati, who is chairman of both the Assembly of Experts and the Council of Guardians, are calling for speedy trials and tough sentences to punish economic...
-
Why there will not be a US-Iran summit
As tensions between Iran and the US continue to mount, American President Donald Trump’s proposal to meet Iranian leaders appeared to be, on the face of it, a de-escalatory posture. It confirmed once again Trump’s mercurial leadership style and his apparent penchant for dealing with strong authoritarian leaders. As it...
-
Iran commemorates Iran-Iraq War anniversary amid fears of a new conflict
Earlier this month Iran commemorated the 30th anniversary of the ending of the Iran-Iraq War. The eight-year conflict is a defining period in the country’s modern history and the establishment has spared no effort in continually keeping the memory of the conflict in the public consciousness. The war was the...
-
Russia’s re-emergence as a Mideast power is not necessarily good news
Flush with confidence following the successful staging of the FIFA World Cup, the Russian Federation has a renewed confidence about its role in the world. There are plenty of reasons for Russia to feel confident as the country has scored success after success in the past two decades. Following the...
-
There is tension between Iran and Russia in Syria, but talk of a split is premature
For months there has been speculation that the Iranian-Russian partnership in Syria is under strain and possibly even on the threshold of a serious split. There is even speculation that the Putin-Trump summit in Helsinki, Finland could result in a shift in Russia’s position on Iran. Many factors are cited...
-
Is Iran serious about closing the Strait of Hormuz?
As Iran and the United States move toward a confrontation that is looking increasingly inevitable, Iranian political and military leaders have once again raised the prospect of closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil “artery” through which 30 per cent of...
-
Netanyahu goes full theatrical against Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s latest video-taped message to the Iranian people – in which he conflates the relatively good performance of the Iranian football team with unrest on the streets of Tehran – has been widely ridiculed by the Iranian media. His message followed hot on the heels...
-
Will Iran and the Houthis attack Dubai?
As battle rages for the strategic port of Hudaydah, key questions are being raised about the conflict in Yemen, especially in regard to its regional and international components. The dominant analysis in the pro-Saudi camp is that the capture of Hudaydah may well prove to be a major turning...
-
Iran set to secure optimum outcome after Iraqi elections
The Iraqi parliamentary elections in May has predictably been followed by a drawn-out process of complex manoeuvring and negotiations to determine the complexion of the new government. When it first emerged that Moqtada al-Sadr’s Al-Sairoon (the Marchers) block had come on top in the elections, speculation grew that Iran...
-
Are Iran and Israel heading toward open warfare?
This year’s Quds (Jerusalem) Day in Iran was staged with greater fanfare than ever, not least because of rising tensions with Israel. Last month Israel claimed to have staged air strikes against the entire Iranian establishment in Syria. The air strikes of early May – widely judged to have been...
-
Iran prepares to go on the offensive against Israel
Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s meeting last Thursday with a Syrian religious delegation led by Religious Endowments Minister Mohammad Abdul Sattar Al-Sayyed unfolded at a critical juncture in the Syrian conflict. With the anti-Assad rebellion all but defeated, and various foreign powers, including Turkey and the United States, carving out...
-
Why Iran and Britain can never be friends
Last week’s visit to the UK by Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi appears to signal warming relations between Iran and the United Kingdom. Araghchi’s meeting with UK officials, in addition to his speech at the prestigious Chatham House institute, speaks to a renewed push by the Islamic Republic...
-
Israel suffers major setback in Syria
The military confrontation between Israeli and Syrian/Iranian forces on 10 February set off widespread analysis and speculation on the probability of a major regional war. The severity of the latest clash – with reports that Israel may have destroyed up to 50 per cent of Syrian air defence systems...
-
Despite the tough rhetoric, Iran is on the back foot in Bahrain
Last week’s incendiary comments on Bahrain by a senior Iranian journalist and advisor to the country’s leader has reignited debate on the Islamic Republic’s approach to the ongoing political crisis in the small Gulf state. Hossein Shariatmadari’s statement that Bahrain “belongs” to Iran and that Bahrainis regard themselves as...
-
Sochi Congress exposes limit of Russia’s influence
By most accounts, the Congress of Syrian National Dialogue held in the Russian resort of Sochi was less than a resounding success. Billed as the Russian equivalent to the Geneva peace process, the Sochi Congress risks becoming little more than political cover for Russia’s ambitions in Syria. For Russia, a...
-
In defence of Turkey’s Olive Branch operation
The Turkish offensive to wrest control of the Afrin region from the local branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is set to become a tough and bloody battle. Nevertheless, this battle is not only critical to Turkish national security, but equally vital for broader regional security. At stake is...
-
Idlib offensive heralds new phase of Syrian conflict
Since early in the new year the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies have been conducting an offensive against the country’s last major rebel bastion in the north-western Idlib province. The offensive on Idlib was widely anticipated and its outcome is largely predetermined. Idlib is not only the last major...
-
Despite protests Iran is set to maintain its interventionist regional policy
One of the striking features of the Iranian protests of late December and early January was the focus on the country’s foreign policy. Protesters often took a swipe at Iran’s regional policy of supporting non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah. This was encapsulated by the slogan, “neither Gaza...
-
Will Ahmadinejad fall victim to Iran crackdown?
As the protests and rioting which gripped Iranian provincial towns subside, Iranian leaders and officials have wasted little time in attributing blame to foreign powers. The Iranian leader, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, blamed America and Israel for the unrest, whilst at the same time acknowledging legitimate economic grievances. This relatively...
-
Protests strike a blow at Iran’s prestige
“We are Aryans, we don’t worship Arabs” and “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon; I sacrifice my life for Iran” were just two of the bigoted and radical slogans voiced by Iran’s latest protest movement, which emerged suddenly last Thursday. They underline the uglier side of the protests and riots which...
-
What next for the Palestinian Authority?
The decision by US President Donald Trump to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is a major turning point in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as in the broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Trump’s decision has finally blown away one of the greatest hoaxes of international politics, namely that the US is...
-
Saleh’s departure further radicalises Yemen conflict
The killing of Yemen’s former leader Ali Abdullah Saleh earlier this month at the hands of the Houthis has dramatically raised the stakes of the Yemeni conflict. Freed from a half-hearted alliance with a former foe, the Houthis have pressed home their advantage by consolidating power in Sana’a. One immediate...
-
US shift on Jerusalem presents Iran with a strategic opportunity
As the repercussions of US President Donald Trump’s highly controversial decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital continues to reverberate across the region and beyond, there is much concern and uncertainty about the long-term impact of this decision. Most of the analysis has focussed on the apparent “demise” of the...
-
The insidious erosion of the Turkish-US partnership
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strong stance on US President Donald Trump’s anticipated recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is yet another indication of a growing Turkish-US split. Turkey’s “red line” on Jerusalem, as demonstrated by a threat to server ties with Israel, underscores the volatility flowing from the anticipated...