At a time when the world is changing from the US dominated uni-polar system to a multi-polar one, there are opportunities for those who wish to free themselves of American dominance. It seems that the Arab world is witnessing an unprecedented condition of turmoil, the likes of which have not been seen in recent decades.
Yet when the state of fragmentation goes on to negatively impact another body of Arab unity (the Gulf Cooperation Council), this suggests that the sistuation is bound to decline over time, contrary to what many believe.
Since the start of the millennium, the Arab world lost Egypt’s role and presence since Hosni Mubarak decided to pass down his rule to his son Jamal. This decision made Hosni Mubarak indebted to his American sponsors and to Israel and as such he had to make many concessions to please both parties. Meanwhile, Omar Suleiman was also engaged in the race as he provided his master with more chips in his attempt to achieve his presidential ambitions.
The reality of the Arab situation is manifested more clearly in the domination of the Palestinian cause, which has moved in the direction of serving Zionism since 2003. This began with the assassination of Arafat and the international community’s decision to remain silent over the crime instead of choosing to remove the officials who conspired against him from power. Moreover, Tel Aviv solidified the type of reality it wanted by placing the Palestinian Authority under absolute occupation, forcing them to coordinate on security matters and to rely on negotiations as the only possible solution to the conflict.
By contrast, the Egyptian revolution gave Arabs a good omen that Egypt would be liberated and would lead its Arab counterparts on the path to restoring their presence on the regional and international scene. Then came the conspiracy against the revolution, not only to bury this dream in the ground, but also to take Egypt back to a time that is far worse than the Mubarak era. With Sisi’s upcoming presidency, not only can we be sure of this reality but we also see the makings of a police state, one where no sane person can dwell.
The Egyptian coup has two political implications that cannot be ignored by any means. The first is to grant Saudi Arabia the responsibility of leading the Arab world and all the countries entangled in its political orbit. The second implication is forcing the region to answer to American and Israeli demands, which one could argue are the biggest sponsors of the Egyptian coup and its biggest international marketing advocates.
In this context we can argue that Sisi will do much worse than what Mubarak did when it comes to the question of succession because he seeks to pass down a police state disguised in democratic clothes. He will continue to make concessions to America and Israel at the expense of the Egyptian people, and the expense of Arab concerns, especially the Palestinian issue, which will translate into negotiations between the authority and the Palestinians on one hand, and conspiracies in the Gaza strip on the other.
There is no doubt that Netanyahu’s mission to market the biggest coup in the international circle did not come without a price. The price that must be paid has become evident in more ways then one, such as supporting Mohammad Dahlan against Mahmoud Abbas. Israel is insisting that Dahlan remain in the Palestinian political circle despite the Palestinian Authority’s desire for him to leave. Israel’s insistence on Dahlan’s presence embodies a greater threat to the Palestinian cause as a whole.
In this context, Saudi Arabia’s leading role in rendering the UAE capable of taking a leading position in the region completely changes the dynamics of the political scene. This naturally explains Saudi Arabia’s decision to finance the Egyptian coup and it also simultaneously explains Egypt’s absence in the region’s biggest hot topics such as the Syrian issue.
If anyone should argue that this temporary status depends on the coup’s status, I would argue that this is highly unlikely because stability in Egypt does not depend solely on ending the coup and it will not stabilise any time in the near future. Part of this is due to the fact that those who experienced and lived the period of freedom following 25 January will not allow the police state to continue, which will bring about implications far worse than those of the Mubarak era. The corruption and authoritarian rule will fuel the continuation of popular movements against oppression because if the oppression continues, many Arab issues will pay the price and the first of them will be the Palestinian cause as I previously stated.
While two countries (Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) have taken it upon themselves to lead the Arab world in deepening the ties of unity in the face of Iranian expansion, it seems as though their leadership is bringing about the opposite effect. This is mainly due to the two countries’ targeting of the Arab Spring and political Islam, which breaks any sense of pan-Arab unity. Moreover, their plans to confront Iran contradict their previous meetings with the country on regional issues such as the Yemeni case, in which they decided to support the Houthi movement in their fight against the Muslim Brotherhood. Due to this, Saudi Arabia ensured the Yemeni revolution’s failure and solidified its goal of keeping Yemen weak so as to avoid competition with the country in the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf.
It is for these reasons that Saudi Arabia and the Emirates did not engage with the Arab Spring and political Islam. Instead, they focused all of their energy to take on an entirely different position. Due to this, they chose to withdraw their ambassadors from Qatar and threatened to impose sanctions because of their foreign policy. They also went so far as to declare the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organisation; these are only some of the consequences that have come out of their adopted position.
Another regional issue that has suffered due to Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s position is Syria, a country that has become the victim of misery and internal bleeding. Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s clash with Turkey and Qatar has come at the expense of Syrian revolutionaries who have been distracted from their confrontation with the Syrian regime that is being sponsored by Iran. A unified Saudi-Qatari-Turkish position in Syria could have introduced a new balance of forces on the ground and may have even pushed Iran to accept a solution that satisfied the Syrian people.
Not to mention what I stated at the beginning of this article that the polarities that are currently facing the international political scene give Arabs the opportunity to adopt new, unified and powerful positions, giving them more options in how they can deal with the international scene. Yet the current fragmentation plaguing the region threatens these potential changes due to the certain regimes’ rejection of political reforms and the opportunity to reverse the tides of history. The situation does not really require all these precautions [taken by Saudi Arabia and the UAE] because they will eventually be faced with the worst scenarios if they continue to ignore responding the people and their will.
Translated from Al Jazeera Net, 8 April 2014
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.