The re-election of Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel is significant, especially for the Gaza Strip and its resistance, as, under his rule, Israel waged two out of three devastating wars in the Gaza Strip. This includes the war waged last summer which is considered the second longest in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, lasting 51 days. The question here is: Does Netanyahu’s success in the elections mean that the countdown to the next war on the Gaza Strip has begun?
Theoretically, it is neither in the interest of Israel nor Hamas to engage in a new military confrontation. In addition to this, the prevalent impression that the formation of an extremist right-wing government must mean that Israel will be quick to pull the trigger does not necessarily reflect the reality of things, even in light of the threats launched by right-wing party leaders and movements who will be joining Netanyahu’s new government. Investigations conducted by the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee regarding the political and military performance during the war indicate that the war ended in catastrophic failure for Israel. In an interview with the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, published on April 3, 2015, a member of the Committee, Minister of the Knesset Ofer Shelah said that there are doubts regarding Israel’s ability in the future to achieve better results in confrontations against Hamas.
At the same time, there is no argument in Israel regarding the fact that changing the reality in the Gaza Strip in a manner that improves the security situation in southern Israel requires the re-occupation of Gaza and remaining there for a very long time, However, this is not favoured by the governing elites or their opposition, with the exception of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman who has become a lame duck after his party’s representation in the Knesset decreased. Re-occupying Gaza means that Israel must take responsibility for 1.7 million Palestinians as an occupying force, including paying the political and economic price for this, not to mention the military exhaustion in the Gazan swamp. In Israel, they are aware that they cannot transfer their responsibility over the Gaza Strip, after re-occupying it, to the Palestinian Authority, as the PA links the handing over of the reins of power in the Gaza Strip to a political settlement to the conflict, which involves the establishment of a Palestinian state.
The PA is aware that an extremist right-wing government in Tel Aviv will not be a serious partner in any political settlement that would lead to the resolution of the conflict, especially after Netanyahu vowed in his election campaign that he would not allow the establishment of a Palestinian state as long as he is prime minister of Israel. At the same time, waging a new war on Gaza would significantly deteriorate Israel’s position internationally. Unlike the conditions during which the last war was waged, there is now a growing trust crisis between Netanyahu, US President Barack Obama and the European leaders. This will not provide an international environment conducive to the waging of a war. To make matters even more complicated, the accession of Palestine to the International Criminal Court will only increase the impact of the war’s negative repercussions.
In addition to this, Netanyahu is aware that the disturbances in the regional environment will cause more strategic threats, thus reducing the ability to invest in the confrontation against the Gaza Strip. As for Hamas, they have come to realise they made a mistake in reading the Israeli reality during the outbreak of the latest war, and it had believed that it could achieve political gains by means of military escalation against Israel. However, Hamas wrongly assessed the regional situation and its negative impact on the conditions of any confrontation with Israel. This is because it became apparent to Hamas that the Arab axis led by Al-Sisi’s Egypt is not concerned with the confrontation resulting in the enhancement of Hamas’s political position.
Therefore, despite the heroic and ingenious performance of the Hamas fighters during the war, the war resulted in a greater deterioration of the economic, living and humanitarian situations in the Gaza Strip. It is also clear that there have been no major regional developments that can benefit Hamas in the next confrontation with Israel. Hamas also realises that the Gazans, who fuelled the three wars waged against them in less than seven years, are concerned with catching their breaths. They are currently preoccupied with reconstructing the damage caused by the occupation during the war and improving the miserable economic situation.
However, despite the fact that neither Hamas nor Israel want a new confrontation to erupt, such a confrontation can erupt due to the situation in Gaza. The continued blockade, the prevention of reconstruction and the lost hope in improving the economic situation can all lead to a new confrontation. Matters may reach the point of the Palestinians being convinced that facing the repercussions of a new war is better than putting up with the difficult economic and living conditions they are currently facing.
It is clear that the continued internal Palestinian division makes matters more complicated and is used by the international community as a justification for their lack of involvement in the reconstruction of Gaza. The realisation of the disastrous repercussions of the status quo remaining the same in Gaza has driven some European parties to make some proposals that may postpone the next confrontation. It is no secret that Switzerland recently proposed an initiative calling for a truce between the resistance in the Gaza Strip and Israel in exchange for beginning the reconstruction process and resolving the issue of the Gaza government employees who have not received their salaries for over a year and a half. Although there has been no indication of Israel’s response to the Swiss proposal, the PA was quick to warn against responding to this initiative, considering it an opportunity for the right-wing government to gang up on the West Bank.
Obviously, we cannot imagine that this initiative will be successful in changing the status quo in the Gaza Strip without the involvement of the PA, the leader of which is viewed by the world authorities as the sole representative of the Palestinians. Therefore, the chances of the Swiss initiative succeeding are extremely limited. In light of this fact, it is only a matter of time before the outbreak of another confrontation in the Gaza Strip.
Translated from Al-Araby, 7 April, 2015.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.