I apologise for re-visiting the intense conflict between the two sides of the Nidaa Tounes party, but the fast-paced internal developments in the party require us, as analysts of Tunisian political life, to continue to follow these developments and predict their dangerous repercussions on the future of the transitional process in the country.
Just as I had predicted earlier, the division of the party into two sides has become a somewhat confirmed matter according to the information I received from some of its leaders. This is because day by day, the gap between the two sides grows, both the political gap and a deeper gap on the level of personal relations. There is a lack of trust and the polarisation has reached a deadly level. Those arguing within the party have even reached the point of accusing each other of conspiracy, supporting terrorism, dealing with the CIA, among other accusations. The statements made by the Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi made matters worse, as it was not in favour of what is known as Mohsen Marzouk’s wing. This made many consider the statement a benefit in favour of his son, Hafez, who leads the other wing.
Future developments will show, more clearly, the magnitude of the actual power each side has, but it seems clear that Habib Essid’s government will not be affected by the resignation of 32 Nidaa Tounes members of parliament, and their discussion regarding the potential to form an independent parliamentary bloc. The government will continue to have a comfortable majority that will protect it from any attempts to overthrow it, and many who have left the Nidaa Tounes bloc announced that they would continue to support the existing government.
The ball is back in Ennahda’s court, and some believe the movement has hidden sponsors, as every time they face a problem inside or outside the movement, an unexpected secret door opens for them, giving them a strong presence once again in the national arena. If the MPs who withdrew from the Nidaa Tounes party insist on their position, then Ennahda will be the top party in the country. In this case, the current dispute will grow, as how can the largest party in the country agree to be represented in the government by an orphaned minister?
Now the issue has gone past the problem of plural representation in Essid’s government, as now the movement’s leaders have openly called for following the example of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey, which recently decided to return to elections in order to regain a majority that allows it to return to power on its own, without being under the mercy of smaller parties. This means that there are those within Ennahda who have grown bored of the game of fragile alliances with other parties inside the coalition government, as no matter how exciting this structure was for the Tunisians, as well as others, and how it had suggested that its politicians were trained on collective governance and partnership in leading the country, it still exposed, in a short time, the many flaws that kept the country from having a strong and effective government capable of achieving political stability.
The Ennahda members continue to wonder how long their movement will be required to resize itself on its own, and take into account the interests of the other smaller parties or those suffering from internal issues, while continuing to be accused of infiltration and having their intentions doubted by everyone, or at least the majority. However, many of the movement’s members believe that it is capable of assuming its responsibilities and governing the country on its won.
It is true that the situation that Ennahda in Tunisia finds itself in is exceptional, but despite this, it is very important to this fragile phase of the transitional process.
If Ennahda decides to abandon everyone and take advantage of the state Nidaa Tounes is in, as well as the weakness of the opposition parties, or if it decides to turn the tables on everyone and move towards forming a unilateral government after holding new, premature elections, it would find itself isolated and in a state of confrontation with everyone else. In addition to this, this scenario will lead it to aborting the efforts it made, and continues to make, in order to support and reinforce the international and regional forces’ trust and confidence in the movement and in its policies which are based on patience and refraining from monopolising power.
There are many differences between the Turkish and Tunisian experiences, so we must not rush, make mistakes in our considerations and calculations, or cause confusion.
Translated from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 10 November 2015.