Is Syria’s future a comprehensive settlement or more conflict?

Political and diplomatic circles in Beirut believe that over the next few months, the situation in Syria will witness “crucial developments” determining the future of the country and its neighbours. They don’t, though, share a vision on what the future holds for Syria and the rest of the region.

While sources close to the Syrian regime and its allies — notably Iran, Hezbollah and Russia — confirm that “matters have been settled in the country” and that “an integrated plan will be implemented in the next phase,” official diplomatic sources in neighbouring Lebanon believe that the conflict in Syria has not been resolved definitively. “The coming months,” they say, “will experience more escalation to decide future options, despite the great progress made by the Syrian regime and its allies during the past months on the ground, especially in the south.”

What are the two visions regarding Syria’s future? Where is it heading in the next phase? What is the impact of what is happening on the wider conflict in the region?

According to those in Beirut, the crisis in Syria has reached its final phase after the recent Russian-American summit in Helsinki, with Washington handing over the main role in Syria to Moscow, as well as the task of following up on the future stages. “There is a US decision to withdraw from Syria,” they claim, “except for what remains of the limited American forces in north-eastern Syria — to protect the oil wells — and in the Tanf area.” The Americans are waiting for solutions. “This also aims to keep pressure on Hezbollah and Iran’s allies, and to prevent the opening of border crossings until after a comprehensive political agreement is reached.”

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The Lebanese sources added that Russia is currently following up on several issues in Syria, including arrangements for the return of the refugees, especially those in Lebanon and Jordan. “As well as reconstruction and putting in place various plans to implement these arrangements, Russia is also supervising the restructure of the Syrian army in order for it to be able to keep up with the next stage.” Foundations are being laid for a comprehensive political solution by drafting a new constitution and holding parliamentary and then presidential elections. “As for the situation on the ground, there is now a focus on assessing and resolving the situation in Idlib, in cooperation with Turkey. This will either be through negotiations or military action, even though the main issue is currently linked to the future of tens of thousands of foreign fighters and self-determination.”

Any political solutions and security arrangements, especially in the south, will not be at the expense of Iran’s role and that of Hezbollah, insist those in Beirut. “There is coordination between Russia, Syria and Iran. Hezbollah is keeping pace with developments, and the future political solutions will benefit everyone.”

In contrast to this optimistic vision regarding Syria’s future and the role of the Syrian regime, official diplomatic sources in Beirut have another perspective. “The conflict over Syria’s future and that of the region is still ongoing,” they explain, “despite the progress made on the ground by the regime and its allies — which occurred specifically in the south through US-Russian coordination — and taking into account Israeli considerations.”

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This vision also states that the US and its allies have not yet given the Russians the unconditional green light to manage the Syrian issue, and that clashes on the ground in northern and eastern Syria, as well as some areas in the south, will continue until the decision is made regarding the future of the Syrian regime. “The Turkish role is still active,” they add, “and the Turks have not yet made a final decision to move completely towards Russia and Iran, as they are taking into account the positions of America and the Arab countries.” Nor, they point out, have the Kurds made a final decision about making an agreement with the Syrian regime. “All options are still open. There are tens of thousands of foreign, Arab and Syrian fighters who have not been included in any settlement yet, so the fighting is ongoing and the decision will take some time.”

One thing that both sides of the discussion agree on is that the future of Syria will have implications across the region. This is because what is happening in Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Iran has an impact on the situation in Syria, and everyone is pressing for the outcome of the conflict to be in their favour. However, despite the difference in details between the two main visions, we can say that the future of Syria looks like being decided within the next few months. What awaits? This is an important question, because the regime in Damascus, neighbouring countries and, indeed, the international community will all be affected.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 22 August 2018

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.