US President Joe Biden’s emerging strategy on Yemen aims to weaken the Houthis but stops well short of trying to defeat the group or directly address Iran, its main sponsor, raising risks of prolonged conflict, say analysts.
Reuters has reported that the strategy — a blend of limited military strikes and sanctions —appears to be aimed at preventing a wider Middle East conflict even as Washington seeks to punish the Houthis for their attacks on Red Sea shipping linked to Israel.
As the de facto government in Yemen, the Houthis insist that they have the right to sanction Israeli shipping as the occupation state is involved in a genocide against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian cause is popular in Yemen.
However, it is unclear whether the strategy will accomplish Biden’s main goal of halting the Houthi attacks. Analysts warn that a middle-road attempt could mean continued instability along a vital global shipping route without removing the risk of greater regional military confrontation.
“I think the strategy is sustainable. I just don’t think it’s going to work,” said Seth Jones at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank. “Limited strikes against Houthi targets are not going to deter attacks around the Red Sea.”
The Houthis’ campaign has disrupted global commerce, stoked fears of inflation and deepened concern that fallout from Israel’s military offensive against the Palestinians could destabilise the Middle East.
READ: Official: Ship traffic in Suez Canal down 30% due to Houthi attacks
After months of warnings, Biden last week authorised a wave of air strikes against Houthi military targets, hitting missiles, drones and radar stations. Nevertheless, the Houthis have kept up their attacks.
On Tuesday, the US military struck four anti-ship ballistic missiles as they prepared to launch against Red Sea targets, and on Wednesday they destroyed 14 more. Both actions suggest the US is choosing military targets based on real-time intelligence. “If we see a target,” said one US official, “we will hit it.”
Biden’s national security adviser has publicly hinted at the likely need for more military action. “We anticipated the Houthis would continue to try to hold this critical artery at risk and we continue to reserve the right to take further action,” said Jake Sullivan on Tuesday.
Some US officials and experts believe that the Houthis welcome the confrontation with the United States, saying that it helps them win popular support in Yemen and burnishes their brand in the Middle East as part of the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance”. They also appear to believe that they can endure US bombings, even if some stocks of missiles and drones are destroyed.
“The fact of the matter is that [drones and missiles are] relatively easily replaced,” said Gerald Feierstein, a former US ambassador to Yemen. “Whether they get the motors or the guidance systems or something else from Iran, they can put together the pieces themselves.”
The US strategy of balanced escalation was apparent on Wednesday when the Biden administration returned the Houthis to its list of designated terrorist groups, although it delayed implementation for 30 days, to help limit the impact on humanitarian aid to Yemen. Biden also stopped short of relisting the group as a “foreign terrorist organisation (FTO)”.
Although the FTO designation includes far stricter measures than the “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” listing, Gregory Johnsen, a non-resident fellow with the Arab Gulf States Institute, said that he doubted the step would be effective. “This is largely a symbolic act that’s going to have some humanitarian repercussions, but it’s not going to do anything to prevent the Houthis from carrying out these attacks,” he explained.
One senior Biden administration official, briefing reporters on the decision, said Washington was still “committed to resolving the conflict in Yemen” and to reach a durable ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
Jonathan Lord, director of the Middle East security programme at the Centre for a New American Security, said Biden was hoping to deter the Houthis. The former Pentagon official said that the strategy largely ignored the Houthis’ main backer — Iran — and would tie up valuable, and costly, US Navy assets.
“Iran can provide the Houthis with capabilities that are asymmetrically cheaper,” he added. “US capabilities, by and large, live off aircraft carriers and other naval vessels which need to go in and out of the region, but also are needed elsewhere in the world.”
READ: Houthis say US designating them as ‘global terrorist’ won’t hinder support for Palestine