The Sudanese Army may have won the battle for Khartoum, but the battle for Sudan is ongoing

After months of fierce fighting, the Sudanese Army has succeeded in storming the Republican Palace in Khartoum, which had been occupied by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April last year as part of the paramilitary group’s failed coup attempt. The army also managed to liberate several other sovereign institutions in the capital, such as the Central Bank, the General Intelligence Headquarters, the Radio and Television Authority, the Friendship Hall and other government and private buildings.

The victories of the Sudanese Army have alarmed the United Arab Emirates, the primary sponsor of the RSF, which is led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti. The liberation of Khartoum comes after the Commander of the Army and President of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, filed a complaint against the UAE at the United Nations. A lawsuit has also been submitted to the International Criminal Court against UAE President Mohammed Bin Zayed.

The RSF alliance with other Sudanese political and military factions intending to declare a parallel government from within the Republican Palace has thus been thwarted.

The Sudanese Army has every right to take pride in achieving these victories independently, whereas the RSF received all forms of military and financial support from external sources, notably the UAE. With the paramilitary group still in control of large parts of Sudan, the army and its supporters must remain vigilant and not be lulled into complacency after taking back control of the capital. The RSF has not been defeated; it is licking its wounds and being primed again with fresh supplies and arms. It is imperative to strengthen the defences around the liberated areas of Sudan.

The 2019 military coup led by Al-Burhan and the ouster of President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir was neither new nor surprising for Sudan. The country’s history since its independence on 1 January, 1956, has been marked by a series of military coups reflecting bitter power struggles.

Sudan has been plagued by internal conflicts that have drained its strength and impoverished its people.

The military has governed for over 60 years — nearly 90 per cent of the country’s post-independence term — with only brief transitional periods governed by short-lived sovereignty councils lasting between one to four years.

Al-Bashir himself came to power through a military coup against Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi in 1989. He survived two attempted coups before he was overthrown by the army in April 2019, following a popular uprising that lasted nearly five months.

READ: Heavy fighting reported between Sudanese army, rival RSF in southern Sudan

Al-Burhan assumed the leadership of what became known as the Transitional Sovereign Council, alongside Dagalo, who owed his rise to Al-Bashir, who had facilitated the formation of the paramilitary RSF to suppress the people of Darfur. Al-Bashir even appointed him to an official state position. However, Dagalo betrayed his trust and turned against him, becoming the deputy head of the Sovereign Council. The council later announced it had thwarted two attempted military coups in 2021 and had arrested the rebellious officers.

It was evident from the make-up of the Transitional Sovereign Council, with its military wings, that there was a conflict simmering beneath the surface between the two coup factions. The conflict was bound to erupt when the conditions allowed, and each side prepared for that decisive moment, aiming to eliminate the other and monopolise power in Sudan. Both parties turned to regional and international actors for support. Dagalo aligned with the UAE, Ethiopia and the Zionist entity, while Al-Burhan was supported by Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

In a previous article at the start of the conflict between Al-Burhan and Dagalo, I wrote that, “The bloody struggle between the two poles of the coup will persist, consuming everything in its path and plunging the country into chaos, with the Sudanese people as the primary victims, until one eliminates the other. The battle between them is a zero-sum game with no return, no negotiations, and no power-sharing as before. One will emerge victorious while the other ends up either dead or in exile, probably in the UAE if Dagalo loses, or in Egypt if Al-Burhan is defeated.”

Time has shown this prediction to be accurate.

It looks as if Al-Burhan has won, and Dagalo has been defeated. He remains in Sudan, though, which is why the Sudanese Army must remain vigilant. It may have won the battle for Khartoum, but the decisive battle for Sudan is ongoing.

READ: Sudan: at least 12 civilians killed in latest RSF attacks

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.