Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by John Kemp
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Oil consumption tracking is all about Asia
Oil market analysts must make sense of a bewildering array of statistics about production, consumption and inventories, compiled and published with varying definitions and degrees of accuracy and timeliness. The challenge is to form an accurate and nuanced picture of the whole market capable of generating useful forecasts, without becoming…
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Hedge funds polarised on oil by economy and supply threats
Hedge fund managers remain deeply divided about what matters more for the future direction of oil – intensifying fears about a global recession or Saudi Arabia’s production cuts and other supply disruptions. Hedge funds and other money managers sold futures and options equivalent to 25 million barrels in the six…
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Strait of Hormuz and the risk of uncontrolled escalation
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman named after the fabulously wealthy ancient kingdom of Ormus, has fascinated oil traders since the Iranian revolution in 1979. Iran has periodically threatened to close the strait to enemy shipping, while the United States and its allies have…
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Oil prices stumble as hedge funds become overextended
Hedge fund managers added even more bullish long positions in crude oil and refined fuels last week, but positions showed signs of becoming stretched, setting prices up for a setback, Reuters reports. Hedge funds and other money managers were net buyers of another 46 million barrels of futures and options…
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Trump and Saudi Arabia at odds over oil prices
US President Donald Trump and the Saudi government have closely aligned views on most issues but they disagree significantly on the desirable level for oil prices, which could become a source of volatility in 2019/2020. In keeping with his iconoclastic approach to governing, Trump has kept up a public commentary…
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NOPEC bills provide useful leverage for the White House
For a proposed statute still at the first stage of the legislative process, with only a handful of sponsors in the US Congress, the “No Oil Producing and Exporting Countries Act of 2019” (NOPEC) is generating a lot of comment. The amount of attention being paid to the proposed legislation…
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Saudi Arabia resumes familiar role as swing producer
Saudi Arabia has resumed its traditional role as the swing producer, sharply reducing its output to tighten the oil market and push prices higher, Reuters reports. The de facto OPEC leader has demonstrated, once again, that it can always tighten the physical market, boost prices and push the calendar spread into…