Former British diplomat claims Iran could overwhelm Israel in major war

Former British diplomat Alistair Crooke has claimed that debate inside the Pentagon is divided over Iran’s military capabilities and the potential impact of a direct conflict on Israel, arguing that some assessments suggest Israel may not be able to withstand such a war.

Speaking in an interview with retired judge Andrew Napolitano on the Judging Freedom podcast, Crooke said he believed certain Pentagon views are based on evidence rather than assumptions, pointing to what he described as the experience of a 12-day war between Israel and Iran.

Crooke criticised what he called arrogance in Washington and Israel, particularly claims that Iran is unable to challenge advanced missile defence systems. He said Israel had been “attacked in an unprecedented way” and sustained “real damage”, while others, he argued, continued to downplay Iran’s capabilities by describing Iranian missiles as outdated and ineffective.

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He described this stance as “emotional thinking”, saying it was not grounded in rational assessment. “How can Iran possibly challenge our missile systems?” he said was a common refrain, adding: “This is the new world you’re living in, gentlemen of the Pentagon.”

Crooke also argued that countries including China and Russia have demonstrated the capacity to challenge sophisticated Western military systems, and said Iran “isn’t backward” or in decline.

Drawing a parallel with the 2006 war in Lebanon, Crooke recalled Israeli assumptions about Hezbollah’s capabilities. He said Hezbollah nearly sank Israel’s newest frigate after launching a surface-to-sea missile, prompting an Israeli investigation into why the ship’s defence systems had not been activated.

According to Crooke, the naval commander involved said intelligence assessments had portrayed Hezbollah fighters as “barefoot Bedouins who live in caves and ride donkeys” — an account Crooke cited as an example of the dangers of underestimating an adversary’s military capacity.

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