US academic warns war with Iran could be prolonged and complex

John Mearsheimer has warned that expectations of a swift end to the war with Iran or the collapse of the Iranian state are “illusions,” arguing that the conflict remains in its early and uncertain stages.

The prominent international relations professor said that current assessments suggesting a quick resolution are premature and potentially misleading, given the nature of conflicts involving regional and global powers.

Mearsheimer emphasized that Iran’s geographic scale and dispersed military infrastructure make it difficult to decisively weaken through rapid strikes, adding that even sustained military operations would be unlikely to fully dismantle its capabilities.

He also argued that the United States and its allies may have overestimated their ability to achieve a quick victory, noting that Iran retains significant deterrent capacity, including missile systems and a network of regional allies that enable it to sustain a prolonged confrontation.

According to Mearsheimer, the balance of power is not one-sided, as often portrayed in some Western narratives. He pointed to Iran’s strategic leverage, including its capacity to influence shipping routes and energy flows in the Gulf, as well as its demographic and geographic depth.

He further cautioned against relying uncritically on official and media narratives, suggesting that some analyses may be biased or based on incomplete information, leading to distorted perceptions of the conflict.

Mearsheimer also warned that the war carries a high risk of regional escalation, given Iran’s alliances and affiliated armed groups across multiple countries, meaning the conflict could expand beyond its current scope and evolve into a wider regional war.