The West Bank on a Powder Keg

The pace of settler attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank has escalated to the point where their consequences are becoming increasingly difficult to contain. The recent incident in the village of Tell was one such example. Last Friday, a settler attack on the village resulted in the killing of four Palestinians and the death of two Israelis after a Palestinian seized the weapon of a settler who had been pointing it at the villagers. The incident occurred amid a wave of escalation by settlers that began only a few weeks ago and has spread across most parts of the West Bank. It has resulted in deaths and injuries, among them children, as well as attacks on homes, mosques and agricultural land through vandalism, arson and destruction. One Israeli analyst described the situation as the West Bank approaching an “imminent catastrophe”, amid mounting provocations on the ground and the emergence of local self-defence committees in Palestinian villages.

According to video footage and eyewitness accounts, the Israeli occupation army does not merely stand by while these armed attacks against unarmed Palestinian civilians take place. It also intervenes in support of the settlers whenever necessary to protect them, as demonstrated by the attack on civilians in the village of Tell and its aftermath.

Nahum Barnea, political commentator for Yedioth Ahronoth, holds the Israeli government responsible for encouraging settlement expansion, protecting illegal outposts, and providing political cover for extremist settlers. The situation in the West Bank is further compounded by increasingly stringent restrictions on movement across the territory, further disrupting the already difficult daily lives of Palestinians as a result of the occupation army’s measures on the roads. The Israeli government has also deployed two additional military battalions to take part in operations in the West Bank, in addition to the 24 battalions already operating there. Alongside this, many other measures and practices have been implemented by the occupation with increasing intensity. Is the Israeli government preparing for a further escalation in the West Bank?

In the aftermath of the Tell incident and its subsequent developments, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a large-scale military operation in the West Bank, while simultaneously pledging to accelerate settlement activities. This came just three months before the Israeli elections scheduled for October. The timing of the escalation in the West Bank raises a legitimate question as to whether the current eruption in the territory could serve Netanyahu’s electoral interests, just as the war in Gaza helped preserve the cohesion of his coalition and prevent its collapse over the previous three years. This argument becomes more compelling when the escalation is viewed alongside Netanyahu’s broader objective in the West Bank, which he has consistently pursued in recent years. After assuming office as Prime Minister for the first time in 1996, Netanyahu stated that the West Bank should form a part of Israel. Rogel Alpher, a columnist for Haaretz, links the current escalation in the West Bank to Netanyahu’s political strategy, arguing that it advances his broader project of expanding Israeli control over the West Bank.

This argument stands in complete contrast to that advanced by the Israeli journalist Yossi Yehoshua, who maintains that attacks by settlers against Israeli soldiers pose an internal crisis that affects the state’s ability to enforce the rule of law. This appears to be precisely the argument that Israel intends to adopt, as reflected in official statements claiming an inability to prevent settler attacks against Palestinian civilians. The purpose is to absolve the occupation authorities of responsibility for the large-scale settler attacks that are being planned, while reinforcing the claim that the West Bank is disputed territory between two peoples, despite the reality, the legal arguments, and the history of the land.

The settlement movement does not seek to establish a state separate from Israel or outside its framework. Rather, it seeks to annex the West Bank to Israel, prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state there, remove the Green Line from the legal and administrative system, and apply Israeli law to the settlements, bringing them under Israeli state institutions.

The escalation in settler attacks constitutes a qualitative shift, moving from assaults limited in number, offensive force and destructive impact to armed assaults carried out in large numbers and claiming a greater number of Palestinian victims. This explains the recording of hundreds of assaults within a short period, and the killing and injury of numerous Palestinians as a result of this violence. Settler attacks in the West Bank have witnessed a clear escalation in recent years, particularly since 7 October 2023. By last July, settlement outposts and farms had come to control, in practice, an area approaching 20% of the West Bank, exceeding the area designated under the interim Oslo Accords as “Area C”.

Last February, the Israeli Security Cabinet decided to authorise the enforcement bodies of the Israeli Civil Administration to operate within Areas A and B in matters relating to antiquities and heritage sites, environmental violations, water resources, and construction. Under this decision, the Israeli authorities are empowered to halt projects or demolish Palestinian buildings in areas that fall under the Palestinian Authority’s civil jurisdiction. The Cabinet also decided to strip the Hebron Municipality of its planning and licensing powers in the vicinity of the Ibrahimi Mosque, allowing the expansion of settlement facilities and alterations to the site without the municipality’s approval, despite the 1997 Hebron Protocol having granted it planning and construction authority. The government also decided to establish an Israeli administration for Rachel’s Tomb in Bethlehem. In May, the Knesset approved at first reading a bill to establish an Israeli Heritage Authority for the West Bank, after which it was referred for preparation for its second and third readings. This would transfer responsibility for antiquities from the framework of the temporary military administration to an Israeli civilian institution operating under legislation enacted by the Knesset. Also last February, the Israeli Security Cabinet facilitated settlers’ access to land records in the West Bank and introduced a governmental mechanism for purchasing land. The decision allows Israelis to purchase land directly without the need for a company registered in the West Bank and abolishes the requirement to obtain prior approval for such purchases. This enables settlement organisations and investors to identify areas for expansion and acquire land without the need for a public government decision to establish a new settlement.

These developments in the West Bank coincide with other measures which, taken together, mark a dangerous turning point. Following the events in the village of Tell, a widespread closure of roads and key routes linking towns and villages across the West Bank severely disrupted the daily lives of Palestinians. A total of 925 checkpoints were recorded across the West Bank and East Jerusalem, representing a 43% increase over the annual average of previous years. Although the number of checkpoints had already risen after 7 October, their expansion accelerated and movement restrictions intensified with the closure of dozens of roads across the West Bank and the installation of dozens of additional checkpoints on roads leading to Palestinian cities at the beginning of last year, following the entry into force of the Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement. As a result, Israel has effectively assumed full control over movement, transport, trade and security throughout the West Bank.

These developments reflect a curtailment of the powers of the Palestinian Authority, and are forcing its transformation into an administrative apparatus of limited functions, legally and politically subordinate, and stripped of authority. This is entirely consistent with other measures taken by the occupation authorities relating to gradual economic and financial measures. The financial pressure on the Authority is no exception, whether through the withholding of clearance revenue funds, which constitute more than 60% of the Authority’s budget, or the threat to halt the correspondent banking service between Israeli and Palestinian banks, owing to the Israeli government’s threat to Israeli banks to withdraw protective guarantees, which could cause the suspension of the money transfer service to and from Palestinian banks, meaning the disruption of economic life in the Palestinian territories. Palestinian banks are also facing a crisis of surplus shekel cash, which Israel refuses to allow to be transferred or converted into electronic balances to facilitate financial transactions, adding further complexity to the Palestinian economic reality.

Is Israel seeking to dissolve the Palestinian Authority? In reality, two influential currents within Israel hold competing views on the issue. The first, representing the more right-wing and hardline position, favours the collapse of the Palestinian Authority as a means of preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state. The second, by contrast, opposes its dismantlement, arguing that its continued existence serves Israel’s interests. From this perspective, a weak Palestinian Authority incapable of evolving into a state is preferable to its complete absence, which would leave Israel directly responsible for the obligations of governing the West Bank as an occupation power. Today, it is not difficult for anyone following developments in the Palestinian situation to conclude that a Palestinian state is unlikely to be achieved through understandings with the occupying power, whose leaders have defined their position towards the Palestinians and their state for decades. It has also become evident that the strategy of steadfastness alone, adopted by the official Palestinian leadership, is no longer sufficient. There is now an urgent need for it to be coupled with a strategy of counteraction.

Time is no longer working in the Palestinians’ favour. Israel’s plans to neutralise the Palestinian presence continue unabated, and sustained official and popular pressure, combined with imposing a cost on Israel, remains the only way to unsettle its plans.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.