Rising from the ashes: Post-Assad Syria is slowly stirring

The adage goes, “No news is good news,” and a lack of headlines generally means that all should be well. In the case of Syria, that is true to some extent, though during the latter years of the conflict, numbness to Assad’s many crimes meant that reporting seemed to dwindle as observers accepted his “victory”. Nevertheless, Syria is generally out of the headlines when considering the region more broadly. There can be no question that the state is in a much better place than it was before 8 December 2024, but headlines in recent days remind us that there is still a great deal to consider.

There have undoubtedly been many successes in Syria since the removal of Bashar Al-Assad. A mafia-like family no longer rules the state as if it were its own fiefdom, and the overthrow of the Assad regime, achieved while Syria’s territorial integrity remained intact, should not be taken for granted. In many cases, states emerging from civil war are very different entities after a conflict than they were before it.

The removal of US and EU sanctions, as well as Syria’s removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, is testament to intensive lobbying and advocacy efforts. Syria is clearly being taken seriously on the international stage, in contrast to when it was ruled by Assad and was essentially a pariah. 

An interesting point to note in an era of increased migration and refugee flows is the opposite direction in which many Syrian refugees are heading: instead of leaving Syria, they are returning. There is a degree of hope attracting people back. Transitional justice, while imperfect, is being applied in Syria, and parliamentary elections and parliamentary functions are a step in the right direction.

Freedom of speech is arguably the main issue to celebrate in a post-Assad Syria that is still recovering. Protests in recent days by citizens across the country, highlighting high fuel prices and the difficult cost-of-living situation, present a test for Al-Sharaa and his new government, but also offer an opportunity. There are no indications that the government will react to understandable protests in the way Assad did, and they give the government a genuine chance to reframe the narrative. 

The economic situation is difficult, and while efforts to remove sanctions on Syria are welcome, the effects of their removal will take time. Investment in Syria is also not straightforward, and there is political work to be done. Al-Sharaa needs to communicate directly with the Syrian people about the challenges they face and, to a certain extent, manage expectations. 

The use of influencers is not enough. The Syrian people need to hear more from Al-Sharaa and see him more often in unscripted, informal settings. Syria now has a parliament, and it needs to play a role here too. There is already scepticism about its future role, so it must be part of the conversation and communication strategy.

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Al-Sharaa has been honest about how the shift from a socialist command-and-control economy to a free-market economy will bring shocks. What he needs to do is mitigate the impact of these shocks on a war-weary, exhausted population that has known only crisis and war over the past decade and a half. Alternatives to oil exist, such as solar power. Can more be done to harness them?

Regionally, the threat from Israel remains considerable. Israeli incursions into Syrian territory violate Syrian sovereignty and international law. The international community must do more to reprimand Israel for its repeated incursions, and the Golan Heights—illegally occupied by Israel since 1967—must be returned. 

The tide may be slowly turning against Israeli hegemony, as the whole region has turned against it. Even Trump is less vociferous in his support, as demonstrated by his failure to reprimand the UK and others when they declared their belief that the occupation of the West Bank is illegal under international law. The Mecca Pact between Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has threatened Israel. Syria, as an ally of Turkiye, is bearing the brunt of Israel’s frustration.

Foreign policy successes must also be noted. Beyond the removal of sanctions and two well-received addresses by Al-Sharaa to the UN General Assembly, in 2025 and 2026, the independence of Syria’s foreign policy is crucial. The US asked Syria to intervene in Lebanon against Hezbollah, with Trump reportedly viewing this as a possible quid pro quo for the removal of sanctions. Syria resisted the request. 

Saudi Arabia also asked Syria to intervene in Yemen against the Houthi militias. This request was also resisted. The image of Al-Sharaa as a Saudi or American proxy is inaccurate. Action is taken only in Syria’s interests.

A national identity is being formed, and political rather than military solutions to problems are being sought. People are free to protest in the streets and make their views about the current government heard. More needs to be done to investigate policing and security concerns, including the imprisonment of Hassan Akkad and the death of Mohammed Gamira in police custody. While unlawful imprisonment is not on the scale seen during the Assad era, it remains a problem that Al-Sharaa must resolve urgently. The commitment in the constitutional declaration, signed by Al-Sharaa in 2025, to hold presidential elections within five years must be honoured.

Is Al-Sharaa up to the challenge? The past 20 months or so would indicate that he is, but expectations must be managed.

It is interesting to note Al-Sharaa’s recent interview in New York, moderated by former US official Brett McGurk and organised by the Atlantic Council, and the way he dealt with questions about his past. It is an irony of history that the man whom some want to put on political trial for what he was 20 years ago is now required to deal with Russia, Israel, the US and Turkiye; manage a country that has just emerged from war; and rebuild a state from beneath the rubble.

Hope is in the air, and it must be channelled into something bigger. Some of the responsibility rests with the Syrian people themselves. John F. Kennedy famously said: “Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.” The mentality of a people who have been beaten is recovering, and the Syrian people are emotionally resilient. Entertainment and the return of normal life, as seen in the successful concert by Assala, are welcome signs. Rome was not built in a day; Damascus will not be rebuilt in a day either.

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