What next after the UN report on the chemical weapon attack?

The UN report into the Gouta chemical weapons massacre does not shine favourably on Russia and Syria. Much to their chagrin, the publication of the report coincided with the Security Council’s debate on the interpretation of the controversial Lavrov-Kerry agreement. The debate discussed whether the Russia-US agreement should lead on to Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which gives a mandate for the use of force, or whether its signatories are required to return to the Security Council in order to consider what steps should be taken in the event that chemical weapons continue to be used in the Syrian civil war.

The UN report suggested that the Syrian regime was behind the use of chemical weapons in Gouta, but stopped short of naming it directly. Russia and the Assad regime do not agree with this conclusion and believe that many jumped to it before the report could be read fully by national representatives. Due to the fact that the report is based on political accusations and that some believe that it deliberately covers other intentions and agendas, it is unlikely that the debate on this matter will die down in the near future.

Nevertheless, the UN’s conclusion has put Russia in a tight spot from where it will be required to respond in a way that is “strong and binding”. Moscow might find itself in a position where it has to answer to Chapter VII in the best way possible. Indeed, Russia may become the “official guarantor” that the Syrian government will do as it is told regarding chemical weapons, with Moscow enforcing the terms of the agreement if necessary. Any alternative agreement will have to be supplemented by data demonstrating the regime’s deliberate procrastination or its intention to use chemical weapons again in the future.

Things will not stop there; the UN resolution will look to enforce a “no impunity” ruling and it will do so on a large scale. It will push for such a ruling regardless of any hidden or open intentions and agendas. In fact, cases will be raised to bring those accused of using chemical weapons to the international tribunal, which could also complicate the search for a political solution and Geneva 2 even more.

However, optimists who are seeking a solution for Geneva 2 are at the mercy of Russia and America, which are working directly to push the Syrian crisis on track. They believe that the chemical weapons agreement is the tip of the iceberg and that ultimately Russian-American understanding of the situation goes beyond Syria’s use of such banned weapons. For many, progress on a political solution is necessary to ensure the immediate implementation of the chemical weapons agreement. These optimists also point out the enthusiasm shown for this agreement by pro-Israel allies of the architects of the deal. The diplomatic and strategic alliance achieved by Russia and the US is unmatched militarily by any other party.

We will witness a complicated debate after the investigation of the Gouta Massacre has been completed but all eyes will remain on the Geneva Accord for Chemical Weapons. It is likely that Washington will put pressure on the UN to impose a timetable to disarm Syria of its chemical weapons arsenal. Furthermore, Washington will seek UN pressure on Russian promises to implement the disarmament programme so that there is no procrastination.

In contrast, along with the efforts of international sponsors, the French backed Arab-Turkish axis is looking to continue arming the Syrian opposition with a variety of weapons. A few months ago, a Turkish helicopter came down in Syrian territorial waters in suspicious circumstances; Syria denies shooting it down. However, this week the Turkish air force shot down a Syrian helicopter. It is clear that such incidents could continue to embroil regional players in the civil war.

Unless Russian and American agree to push for the same outcomes and put pressure on their local and regional allies, it is likely that the Syrian conflict will escalate even more. It is also likely that the Geneva 2 conference will be the first victim of this escalation; it certainly won’t be the last. The Second Geneva Accord will probably fail without a Russian and American agreement to cut out other players and their agendas.

Translated from the Arabic text which appeared on Ad Dustour Newspaper in 18 September 2013

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.