Egypt's regime craves elusive legitimacy

This week, the African Union’s (AU) Peace and Security Council held a summit in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa. The 54 member states focused on the situation in South Sudan, the Central African Republic and Egypt.

Representatives of Egypt will be in attendance – but only to give a briefing on developments in the country. Its membership of the pan-African body was suspended in July, two days after the elected president, Mohamed Morsi, was ousted by the military. This is a measure taken automatically by the AU in the event of an unconstitutional change of government in a member state. African politics have been blighted by coups (military and otherwise), and the Union, keen to encourage nascent democracies, takes a tough stance. Egypt was not the only state to fall foul of this rule last year: the Central African Republic was suspended in March following a coup.

Speaking to the Anadolu news agency, a spokesman for the Egyptian foreign ministry said that Hamdi Loza, assistant foreign minister for African affairs, had “attended the summit to present a briefing on the situation in Egypt and the steps taken to implement the transitional roadmap”. He denied that Loza was submitting a request to attend the summit as a member.

Of course, the exclusion from the AU goes further than just attending the body’s own summits. Egypt recently hit out at the US for choosing to exclude Egypt from a meeting on Africa’s trade ties with the US, scheduled for August. The AFP news agency reported that invitations would be sent to African nations that are in good standing with the US and not suspended from the AU. “This decision is wrong and short-sighted,” said a spokesman for the Egyptian government.

The American position on Egypt has been conflicted. The superpower was highly suspicious of Morsi and his brand of Islamist politics, and resisted describing July’s events as a “coup”, as this would have triggered an automatic congressional mechanism that suspended military aid. Over the months, politicians have expressed concern about abuses of human rights by the interim government, and about the implementation of democracy, but have continued to give millions of dollars in military aid. In October, Washington said it would withhold $260m aid, as well as deliveries of weaponry, until progress was made in these areas. But this did not mean the suspension of all support: the US said it would continue to fund counter-terrorism work and the operation in the Sinai Peninsula. More recently, it has been suggested that all US aid could be restored, following the ratification of the new constitution in Egypt.

The EU and its member states have been similarly confused in their response. Western powers are torn between an instinctive distrust of Islamist politicians, and a supposed commitment to democracy. The AU, by contrast, has no concept of a “good” or “bad” coup to muddy the waters.

While the organisation takes a hard line on takeovers of democratically elected governments, it is not out of the question that Egypt will be readmitted. If the interim government’s much-touted “roadmap to democracy” continues to progress as planned – with free and fair elections going ahead – then it seems likely the AU will reinstate Egypt’s membership. The current regime in Egypt craves legitimacy, and being readmitted to the AU will be one part of achieving that – even if it continues to suppress the opposition.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.