Who will succeed Abbas?

I believe that the past few months of his political life suggest that Mahmoud Abbas will not make it to the end of this year as president of the Palestinian Authority, PLO chairman and leader of Fatah. The man is almost 80 years old and a heavy smoker; he is in poor health and suffers from many illnesses. Moreover, he has threatened to resign in order to live a simple family life, as he is very close to his family and enjoys spending time with his children and grandchildren.

There is an inclination amongst Palestinians to replace Abbas sooner rather than later. This explains the intense disputes within Fatah recently. There are three main potential successors: Jibril Rajoub, Mohammed Dahlan and Marwan Barghouti. All are prominent individuals and influential within Fatah’s Central Committee.

Rajoub is considered the weakest candidate of the three and the least likely to take over the leadership of Fatah, lacking influence, poise and regional and internal contacts. Dahlan was expelled from the Central Committee and the Palestinian Legislative Council, defeated in Gaza and exiled from the West Bank. Nevertheless, he has money, a media presence and good links internationally and across the region. He is a multi-millionaire who buys support and is accepted by Fatah members in the Gaza Strip. His history in Palestinian security qualifies him to deal with threats to his position by blackmail and intimidation. Perhaps more importantly, he has relations with Egypt’s Al-Sisi and contact with US Secretary of State John Kerry.

However, the masses in the West Bank are Dahlan’s weak point. The Fatah movement there does not accept him as a senior leader and will definitely not accept him as a president and successor to Abbas. As such, his chances of being the next president look slight. Hamas’s strong presence shattered his hopes in 2007 and will help to destroy his hopes in 2014 if he does not change his policies.

Marwan Barghouti remains the “dark horse” who possesses many of the attributes that will pave the way for him and make him the strongest candidate for when Abbas does step down. He has overwhelming support in the West Bank and Gaza and is a charismatic leader with a long history of struggle against the occupation; this includes close ties to the armed struggle. Furthermore, he is socially intelligent and maintains close relations with various groups while remaining flexible and realistic.

The only obstacle to Barghouti taking on the mantle of leadership is that he is in an Israeli prison cell, although this could also be an advantage. He is unlike any other prisoner and receives special privileges. He is permitted to meet with many figures for meetings and remains in constant contact with the outside world.

Fatah is on the verge of real change with a shock that will have an impact on its members and the way it deals with the real world. I believe that it will appoint Marwan Barghouti to succeed Mahmoud Abbas as leader of the PLO and Fatah; I also think that ex-prime minister Salam Fayyad may make a real comeback. As for Muhammad Dahlan, his future will depend on his ability to have an impact in Gaza and reconcile with Hamas.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.