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It is no surprise Geneva II failed, a military solution looks likely

March 29, 2014 at 2:06 pm

The failure of the Geneva II conference was expected due to the wide gap of understanding between the two delegations and groups of negotiators and each party’s insistence on their position and interpretation of each point, considered priorities, on the agenda.


The regime insists on beginning with the issue of terrorism and violence and does not want to move on to the second point, the establishment of a provisional government, until after the issue of violence and terrorism has been addressed. It insists on addressing the point of violence and terrorism regardless of how long the issue may prolong negotiations whereas the oppositional delegation believes that these two issues, terrorism and the establishment of a provisional government, go hand in hand.

What was truly surprising was that Lakhdar Brahimi, The UN-Arab League envoy to Syria, apologised for the lack of any concrete achievements throughout the two rounds of negotiations. It is as if Brahimi announced the failure of Geneva II and the fact that both sides agreed to hold a third round, without announcing a formal date for the session, serves to prolong officially announcing the conference’s failure.

The common trend that seems to be occurring in Geneva’s corridors is the western tendency to blame the Syrian regime for the failure of these negotiations and for the military alternative against them. Practical measures and the media have both shown preference to the military alternative and have done so even before the two unfruitful Geneva II sessions took place.

The two failed sessions have not paved the way for a third session and it does not seem that one will take place in the near future, not unless military action forces the regime to bow down to the demands of the opposition in creating a transitional government, one that the regime will have to cede all power to in the end.

There are several points that indicate the likelihood of a partial or complete military solution in Syria in the coming weeks or months:

  1. The meeting that took place on Friday between US President Barack Obama and Jordan’s King Abdullah II in the White House. A large part of this meeting focused on the Syrian issue and the American president confirmed the need to take strong measures that would put pressure on the Syrian regime to accept a political solution.
  2. In a meeting that took place two days ago, the American Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford asked the Syrian National Coalition (SOC) to engage in fiery battles with the regime on the southern front near Daraa. It is a well-known fact that Jordan is the gateway for this front, which explains the meeting that took place between the Obama administration and the Jordanian monarch as they undoubtedly discussed how to facilitate a billion dollar loan to Jordan.
  3. American newspaper, the Wall Street Journal, revealed on Saturday that Saudi Arabia is determined to provide the armed Syrian opposition with anti-aircraft missiles in an effort to change the reality on the ground in the opposition’s favour.
  4. The American Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs confirmed to the SOC’s delegation that the United States has drafted a “Plan B” that it will implement immediately should Geneva II fail.
  5. Government backed Russian media outlets leaked information about supposed French-American intentions to intervene in Syria’s Kalamoon area specifically. These plans for intervention aim to stop the regime’s army and include airstrikes and providing the Syrian opposition with sophisticated weapons.

The US Administration, together with its European and Arab allies, cannot afford to adopt a resolution in the UN Security Council that condemns the Syrian regime and accuses it of obstructing political efforts to find a solution to the Syrian crisis due to the Russian veto. It is not unlikely that international powers will declare Geneva II a failure and that that the regime will be blamed for this failure as a cover-up for the next phase of military intervention.

If a military intervention does in fact take place, it will not be on the same scale as that in Libya, Iraq or Afghanistan. It will be limited in order to pressure the Syrian regime to bow down to the demands of the first and second rounds of Geneva II, which ultimately seek to cede all of the regime’s power to a transitional government with full authority.

It is no coincidence that America’s strongest allies are currently in Washington including the Jordanian monarch and the Saudi Minister of Interior, Prince Mohamed Bin Nayef. Bin Nayef is also known as Washington’s strongest man inside the Kingdom who inherited most of his authority from his cousin Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, who previously relinquished his strong role in Syria to the minister of interior. Furthermore, a closed-door meeting was also held between the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his guest the Qatari Prince Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, who is visiting Turkey today.

President Obama is scheduled to visit the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia next month in an effort to reconcile relations between the two countries, which have been strained due to two issues in particular: the Iranian nuclear programme and the Syrian chemical weapons issue. It is not unlikely that the American president will present the Saudi monarch with a conciliatory gift in the form of military escalation against the Syrian regime.

The burning question now is what is Russia’s stance with regards these developments? It is absolutely certain that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is well aware that Washington is suffering greatly due to Russian advancements in the Arab region, the most notable of which include Putin’s latest visit to General Abdul Fatah Al-Sisi, the current minister of defence and potentially the future president of Egypt.

During his visit, Putin signed an agreement with Al-Sisi worth three billion dollars that would end Egypt’s dependence on American weapons, which has lasted over 40 years. One cannot assume that Putin will allow Obama to make any such gains in the region, especially not through the Syrian gate.

The heat of this battle will not stop at the southern front, as Robert Ford requested, but it will continue to extend to other large fronts both inside and outside of Syria, both militarily and politically, as the Cold War between Russia and America returns after more than 20 years since it first ended. The Syrian scene is subject to numerous surprises in the coming months and it will return to square one, a square that is characterised by political and military polarisation. Jordan will undoubtedly have a large role to play in this context.

This is a translation of the Arabic text published by Raialyoum on 15 February, 2014

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.