An analysis of the deteriorating situation in Libya and its geopolitical impact on the Maghreb

After Muammar Gaddafi’s regime ended in 2011, Libya witnessed a dramatic spiral towards political instability.

On one hand, the West was promoting democracy and the Libyan people’s choice and their freedom to exercise their political rights after over 40 years of autocracy. The West believed that this would facilitate a smooth democratic transition and the opposition, along with the revolution leaders, would be able to govern on the basis of joint governance and would also be able to run the state and its institutions after the liberation phase was over.

Contrary to this, Libya witnessed dangerous security deterioration that resulted in much desperation and pessimism towards the future of political stability in the country, especially since the scenario of overthrowing the regime was accomplished with the help of the NATO based on a mandate from the UN Security Council in accordance with resolution 1973.

The deterioration of the situation in Libya gives the impression that the events of the past three years explain the failure of the West’s approach to achieving stability and instead leading the country to a civil war due to the lack of an effective central authority able to protect Libya from falling into chaos.

Therefore, Libya and the countries along the African coast have become fragile and fragmented by sectarian, religious, and revolutionary affiliations. This has made it a safe haven for Al-Qaeda and other radical Islamist movements, including those from Mali fleeing the French forces.

The Western approach mainly focuses on defending its vital interests in the region that is rich in oil, gas and natural materials, and therefore, solving the security equation seems more urgent and necessary in order to achieve regional stability, thus preserving the West’s interests and benefits.

In his book The Post-American World, American researcher, Fareed Zakaria (Newsweek journalist) glorifies the measures taken by the US to spread liberal democracy around the world, also noting that other countries are now competing with the US for economic, production, and cultural power.

While the US is still the leader in terms of political and military power, other countries such as China, India, and Brazil have become international players in many fields. They are now turning their attention to searching for raw materials and new investment opportunities, especially in areas rich in raw materials such as diamonds and gold in Africa.

In this regard, China is trying to find great economic opportunities in Sudan and Zimbabwe despite the security risks, and has also bought thousands of hectares of agricultural and jungle land in central and West Africa. In addition to this, China has produced cheap products and is selling them in African markets, which threatens food security in these areas and makes it a source of development for large countries.

On the other hand, global forces are trying to concentrate their presence in order to control this geo-political field in order to hinder China, which is seeking to guarantee its fuel sources for the future by maintaining its geographic and strategic position in the area and creating industrial production units there.

There are many risks that threatened the African coast and the Maghreb region, as the explosion of disputes in the area leads to the instability of the entire coastal area, while the war in Libya adds more dismay to the scene and multiplies these risks. Moreover, this space acts as a relatively safe haven for the network of international armed groups that find all the facilities needed for military training, recruiting fighters, carrying out assassinations, suicide bombings, suicide attacks and kidnappings, and building training camps.

On another note, the region is considered fragile in terms of security as illegal activities are easy to carry out, including arms trafficking, drugs, cars, cigarettes, raw materials, and trafficking people. It is also possible to bury nuclear waste, form radical Islamist groups, illegal immigration, and money laundering.

The problem of the lack of security in Libya negatively impacts the path to democracy and seriously hinders the establishment of political and administrative institutions and also contributes to the increase in crime and activities of radical groups. In addition to this, the Libyan officials and foreign diplomats are at risk of arrest and kidnapping, such as the case of the kidnapped Prime Minister Ali Zeidan in 2013.

The lack of security and stability can be chalked up to several factors, including the miserable disarmament failure and the paralysation of military militias that have been active after the end of the war in Libya. Moreover, despite the consensus of Western parties and Libyan leaders regarding disarmament, the country remained under the control of armed groups from different tribal affiliations, putting the elected government under the threat of violence and the intervention of the armed groups, which has also caused the electoral process and political pluralism to stall.

The efforts made to establish the state institutions in Libya are still politically and administratively weak due to the delay in issuing a democratic constitution and respecting the agenda set forth before the end of the war, as the constitutional committee was not formed until two years after Gaddafi’s death.

This coincided with the armed groups’ control of eastern Libya and its oil wells, as well as them threatening the establishment of an independent state. In addition to this, the Islamists hastened to apply the law of political isolation which excludes many parties from participating in the political process. There was also the dispute in the National Congress in 2012 on many political and administrative issues which contributed to the decline in the confidence of citizens in the democratic process as a result of the absence of a national state and the presence of tribal sectarianism and revolutionary remnants in the scene.

On the other hand, the role of the international and regional institutions is considered ineffective and just for show. Unlike the NATO interventions, the UN envoy to Libya is considered small, symbolic, and insignificant compared with the UN envoys to the Congo, for example, or in Kosovo in the past, and does not possess any executive powers that can help achieve security and stability in Libya. This is what threatens the failure of the West’s military intervention and turning the successful revolution and the end of the Gaddafi regime into a crushing defeat in the event that Libya falls into the trap of civil war and the coastal area remains fragile, becoming a real threat to the Western economic interests, as no economic activities can last in the absence of security and stability.

The Maghreb region is a geopolitical area that is now going through a difficult political time that requires regional and international efforts in order to facilitate the democratic transition process. In this context, the Maghreb is trying to play an effective role that contributes to the international role in order to achieve security and stability in the region.

The Moroccan monarch’s recent visit to Tunisia in June 2014 was made in the context of re-arranging the political and economic affairs by strengthening the economic partnership and signing several cooperation agreements in all sectors (23 agreements) and removing it from under Algerian influence which provides the country with economic aid to Tunisia in order to influence the country to adopt a position aligning with the Algerian position, especially regarding the issue of the Sahara region and Algeria’s desire for regional leadership and to maintain its status in the Arab Maghreb Union.

The efforts of the Maghreb and international community must be focused on the following points:

– Supporting the democratic experience in Tunisia, as the stability of the political situation after reaching a consensus on the national coalition government that includes various political parties and the completion of the constitution would contribute to the improvement of the security situation in the country and strengthens the state institutions even more than before. This will leave no room in the future for terrorist groups to act freely or carry out its activities as it has done during the past phase.

– Supporting the national reconciliation in Libya, as in the absence of international forces to keep the peace, Morocco and Algeria could play a pivotal role by inviting the Libyans to hold a dialogue, defuse the fighting, and develop a democratic constitution that focuses on democracy and political pluralism and spares the country from falling into Islamic extremism or dictatorship by restoring a military regime, i.e., going back to square one, which does not serve the democratic path. The need for security certainly does not justify a coup against democracy, as what has happened in Egypt, instead, what is needed is to reinstate and rehabilitate the political institutions that the Libyan public lost faith in due to the presence of governments that fight over power and a military force led by Haftar fighting terrorist movements based on a flawed security logic.

– Activating the role of the Maghreb countries and international institutions as well as providing the United Nations with sufficient information about the armed Libyan groups in order for them to be eliminated. In this regard, we must note Morocco’s new role as a mediator to resolve regional disputes and its experience in crisis management, as it intervened as a mediator to resolve the crisis in Mali.

– Strengthening the Libyan armed forces. The lack of security is mainly due to the weakness of the armed forces, and the United States and European Union are trying to train over 15,000 recruits in the next few years due to its weak technical and training capabilities, on the condition that this effort is coupled with a popular reconciliation, the organisation of an strong and effective civil community, as well as representing most of the sections of the Libyan society.

-Stability cannot be achieved in the region without employing the logic of social consensus regarding the national state project; a logic that accepts the integration of all political parties without any marginalisation or exclusion. In this context, Morocco and Algeria can provide support and training for the Libyan regulatory forces without sending armed forces to intervene in Libyan territory which may exacerbate feelings of rejection among Libyan citizens.

– Contributing to monitoring the borders and the sophisticated strategies it requires, as well as the security, surveillance, and coordination systems amongst the Maghreb countries in order to prevent the infiltration of armed groups and various security risks that threaten the stability of the region.

– The establishment of strong and effective administrative structures that support the existing political power and protect the interests of the citizens.

Finally, it is clear that security dealings and military intervention in Libya and the coastal region will not contribute to solving the problems of security and combating terrorism and violence before a true democratic transition is achieved and the people’s will to live a free dignified life is expressed. Moreover, sustainable development of the Maghreb and African countries remains a real bet, as security and economy are two sides of the same coin.

In terms of geopolitics, the Maghreb and coastal region needs effective regional actors that can ensure regional balance, especially in light of the international competition and race to take over the areas rich in natural resources.

As a country, Morocco is experiencing political stability and security, and it does not hesitate to call for the revival of the Arab Maghreb Union and the activation of the Agadir Agreement for free trade, despite the difficulty of completing this task after the AMU has been frozen for over 25 years. True change of the political elites is the correct path to building a Maghreb region that is economically integrated, as economic development, if achieved by these countries, is able to eliminate the danger of security threats and can bring about economic achievement and productivity in a world that is moving towards regional blocs and string alliances between the international parties and the members of the sub-governments in order to coordinate strategic roles.

This article has been syndicated from Anadolu.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.