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Is Iraq sleepwalking to partition?

July 11, 2014 at 3:09 pm

When large swathes of land in Iraq were seized by the Sunni militant group, ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham), many analysts predicted that it could spell the break-up of Iraq. Events since then appear to support this prediction; despite the grave threat to Iraq’s security, there has been no show of unity from the country’s politicians. In particular, the leaders of the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan – which encompasses three provinces in northern Iraq – and the central Baghdad government have been involved in a bitter war of words.

On Wednesday 9 July, the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, accused the Kurdish leadership of turning their regional capital, Erbil, into the headquarters of ISIS, Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party, and other opponents of the government. “The capital of the Kurdistan region has become the headquarters of ISIS, Baath, and Al-Qaeda,” he said, calling on the Kurds to “stop the operations room for ISIS.” He appeared to be alluding to the fact that some of the Sunnis who fled ISIS went to Kurdistan to seek refuge. Among them were some Sunni tribal leaders and politicians who oppose Maliki’s government, which in turn suspects them of making a deal with ISIS. Indeed, some tribes have supported ISIS, but have said that they did so only because of what they see as Maliki’s discriminatory policies against Sunnis. Some of these leaders have voiced support for Kurdish independence.

In response to Maliki’s criticism, the Kurdish regional government announced on Thursday that its ministers would boycott cabinet meetings. In addition to their own regional parliament, Kurds are represented in the Shiite-led Iraqi parliament, holding offices including president, foreign minister, trade minister, and health minister. Leaders demanded an apology and called for Maliki to step down. “He [Maliki] has become hysterical and has lost his balance,” the Kurdish president, Massoud Barzani, said in a statement. “He is doing everything he can to justify his failures and put the blame on others.”

Much of Maliki’s anger is related to the fact that the Kurds took control of more land – the city of Kirkuk and the surrounding area – after Mosul fell to Iraq. This was seen as opportunistic by many of the country’s Shiites. The Kurds believe that this land – which contains Kurdish-speaking villages – is rightfully theirs. Writing in the Independent, Patrick Cockburn suggests that “Maliki’s political strategy may be to develop a stab-in-the-back explanation for his defeats that will convince the Shia community he is not responsible for their loss of power.” He is reluctant to step aside, despite wide-ranging calls for his resignation, as lawmakers attempt to form a new parliament.

Sectarian and ethnic tension in Iraq is nothing new. The latest crisis is an extension of the bloody civil war that began in 2006 and has never really stopped. Even before the current war of words, there was significant tension between Baghdad and Erbil. The central Iraqi government was refusing to pay salaries of Kurdish government employees because the Kurds were trying to export oil independently. There was also debate over the degree of Kurdish autonomy. Since the current crisis began, the Kurdish leadership has been stepping up calls for an independent state, saying that it will hold a referendum on secession. It appears that both Barzani and Maliki are attempting to curry favour with their own bases of loyalists, by criticizing each other. However, it is a risky strategy, as ramping up the rhetoric obviously does nothing to promote unity at a time when the country faces a grave threat. The actions of ISIS are a threat to both Baghdad and Erbil, yet the increasing tension between the two prohibits the kind of coordinated action that is necessary to defeat the extremist group.

It is also worth remembering that attacks on Kurds are hugely charged given their long history of victimization in Iraq. Under Saddam, tens of thousands of Kurds were killed in chemical weapons attacks and other massacres, while a precursor group to ISIS, Ansar al-Islam, terrorized Kurds along the Iranian border for years.

The US and other international powers fear a break-up of the country – along ethnic lines by the Kurds and sectarian lines by ISIS. But the rhetoric from Barzani and Maliki does nothing to halt what some see as the march towards the partition of Iraq.