Mutual suspicion between Egypt and Hamas stalls diplomatic progress

In the eleven days since Israel launched its ongoing operation on Gaza, at least 259 Palestinians have been killed, a death toll which is rising every day and looks set to rise further. Despite talk of a ceasefire earlier this week, Israel has announced that it will expand its ground operation in Gaza, with the aim of destroying “Hamas infrastructure”, including the network of tunnels out of the territory.

The escalation came very soon after Thursday’s five-hour “humanitarian ceasefire”. Requested by the United Nations, it gave the residents of Gaza a short respite from the bombardment. For the most part, both sides stopped firing, and people in Gaza were able to go to markets, food shops, and banks, all of which were open for the first time in over a week.

During this short cessation of fire, media reports suggested that a longer-term ceasefire had been agreed and would take effect the following morning. The reports quoted Israeli officials saying that they were discussing the ceasefire agreement proposed by Egypt. Now, as the violence ramps up, so has the rhetoric of leaders on both sides. Hamas has vowed that it is unafraid and condemned the decision to launch a ground invasion as “stupidity”, while Israeli military spokespeople said it aimed to destroy this “terrorist organization”. Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli foreign minister, suggested that this might be a long military campaign. He said on Thursday: “The report on a ceasefire, allegedly for tomorrow morning, is far from reflecting reality. I spoke now with the prime minister, and at least right now, this is unknown to us.”

Yet diplomatic efforts to end the conflict are ongoing. The main proposal on the table is Egypt’s. The initiative was launched on Monday, and suggested a immediate ceasefire to be followed by talks in Cairo on settling the conflict. It originally called for a ceasefire to take effect on Tuesday, followed by negotiations in Cairo within 24 hours. Of course, that did not happen. While Israeli officials made some positive noises about the plan, Hamas rejected the deal, saying it had not been consulted. The claim was corroborated by a report in the Haaretz newspaper, which quoted western diplomats saying that not all relevant parties had been consulted.

Hamas has since said the group would need a full deal to be agreed before signing up to a ceasefire. But talks are still happening. A senior Hamas member, Moussa Abu Marzouq, who is resident in Cairo, has been meeting Egyptian mediators. Israel’s delegation in Cairo includes Yoram Cohen, the head of the Shin Bet security agency, and Yitzhak Molcho, one of Netanyahu’s close aides.

But what chance of success does Egypt’s initiative have? Sources on both sides have said that there has been little progress so far – a point which is proved by the escalation of hostilities. In the past, the country has been crucial to brokering talks between Israel and Palestine, working closely with the US to end the last major bombardment of Gaza, in 2012. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri has called for a return to this deal, saying that there is “no alternative but return to the truce”.

But that is not a satisfactory position for Hamas, which wants an end to the blockade on Gaza, and the release of dozens of prisoners who were freed in a 2011 deal with Israel but re-arrested this summer. These would be unpopular with the public in Israel, and politicians will be reluctant to grant them. They will be equally unpopular in Egypt, which would have to open the Rafah crossing with Gaza if the blockade was lifted. The military-backed government in Cairo has taken a hardline on Hamas, declaring it a terrorist organization and destroying the tunnels on which it relied for revenue. Egypt has accused of Hamas of taking part in terrorist activities in the restive Sinai region.

It appears that Egypt is acting alone as a mediator, and has not sought the support of other regional powers, like Turkey or Qatar. After the original proposal was made on Monday, Egypt took it to an extraordinary meeting of Arab League foreign ministers, where it won the backing of the group. However, the execution has been left wanting; Egypt’s President Sisi spoke to Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu on the phone, but according to numerous reports, Hamas were not consulted. This will do nothing to allay the group’s suspicion and hostility towards the current regime in Egypt. There are also legitimate concerns about how Israel has implemented past accords. “Gaza is still fully under siege. And none of the agreements that have been signed before have been implemented,” former Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Nabil Shaath told CNN. However, he, like others, believes that first an immediate ceasefire should take place, with the details hashed out later.

As the operation looks set to intensify rather than ease, diplomatic efforts will continue. But a fundamental starting point for any diplomatic push is to have both sides on board. Open suspicion between Egypt and Hamas appears to have undermined progress so far. Something will have to change if these talks are to achieve an end to the current loss of civilian life.