Is there a Nidaa-Ennahda coalition on the horizon?

With the finalisation of the presidential vote and preliminary result pointing to Essebsi as Tunisia’s next president, the political coalition awaits to be formed. Could there be an Ennahda-Nidaa Tounes coalition on the horizon?

In Tunisia’s second parliamentary elections since the country’s revolution, which overthrew former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, the secular-leaning political party Nidaa Tounes gained the majority of votes: 85 of the Parliament’s 217 seats, with moderate Islamist party Ennahda, the country’s first parliamentary election winner, finishing second with 67 of the seats. However, as Nidaa Tounes didn’t reach the 109 seat majority required to head a unitary government, the party will need to create a coalition in order to form a new government.

Earlier this year, Nidaa Tounes official Mohsen Marzouk announced that: “The question of [forming a] government will be sorted out after the presidential election.” He stressed the need for “dialogue and consensus”, and urged “all political parties to minimise frictions.” A final political coalition is expected to take form in January 2015 but the political horse-trading has already begun. With Essebsi as the country’s president, is there an Ennahda-Nidaa Tounes coalition on the horizon?

Ghannouchi flirting with Nidaa Tounes?

Ennahda’s position ahead of the Presidential elections has been ambiguous, says political analyst Habib M. Sayah. The vote created a split within the party between those who argued it should publically support Essebsi’s opponent, Moncef Marzouki, and those who lobbied for remaining neutral. However, there seems to have been a shift in recent weeks, argues Sayah. Before the first round of presidential elections the party’s Shura Council indirectly backed Marzouki by referring to “the values of the revolution”, a clear reference to Marzouki. The second resolution ahead of the runoff, despite remaining neutral, made slightly more reference to “security and stability”, which was “a clear reference to Essebsi,” says Sayah.

At the same time, Ghannouchi has emphasised the need for harmony between the presidency and the head of government, which would again indicate support for Essebsi. “However, this is mainly Ghannouchi’s position,” argues Sayah, a position, which seems to have triggered tensions within the party. “This is quite new inside Ennahda,” explains Sayah, Ennahda has always been very disciplined and made sure that internal tensions or disputes don’t get exposed to the public or damage the party’s image. “But this time it hasn’t worked,” he added.

Ennahda ready for a coalition?

The moderate Islamist party has continuously called on a unity government for the sake of stability, arguing that consensus seeking will continue to be essential for keeping the country’s young and still fragile democratic transition on track. Political compromise has played an important part in the country’s successful democratic progress.

“Tunisia still needs a consensus between the Islamists and secularists because after elections we will not be in a stable democracy, but a transitional democracy. We need unity government to face all the challenges in our troubled region,” Ghannouchi told Reuters ahead of the parliamentary vote on October 26. In the same interview Ghannouchi declared that the party would be willing to work side by side with former Ben Ali sympathisers.

Ennahda has governed the country since the revolution, having gained the majority of votes in the country’s first democratic election, in a coalition dubbed “the Troika” with secular parties Congress for the Revolution (CPR) and Ettakatol. Despite the coalition becoming more and more disliked over time, it remained intact until it was forced to step down from power after finalising the constitution in the beginning of 2014 when the country faced a political crisis. Nevertheless, the Troika coalition proved that the moderate Islamist party was not just willing but able to cooperate with secular political parties.

Why an Ennahda-Nidaa Tounes coalition?

If Nidaa Tounes decides not to form a government with Ennahda, the party will need to include some of the smaller political parties, such as Free Patriotic Union (UPL) led by business man Slim Riahi which received 16 parliamentary seats, the leftist coalition Popular Front led by Hamma Hammami which received 15 seats, and/or liberal Afek Tounes, which received 8 seats.

However, a coalition including UPL and Popular Front will be difficult both on an economic and structural level, argued Oxford researcher Monica Marks ahead of the first round of Presidential elections. “Nidaa Tounes and Ennahda have the most in common economically”, she explained.

Nidaa Tounes and Popular Front do not share the same economic policies, which mean that such a coalition is likely to make economic investments harder and consequently economic improvements more difficult. In addition, the smaller political parties are less structured, which would mean that the coalition would be fragile and unstable. “They [the smaller parties] are also much less organised than Ennahda, which is why it will be hard to keep such a coalition together,” concluded Marks.

Obstacles for a unity government

For an Ennahda-Nidaa Tounes coalition to become reality the two parties would face the same obstacle: convincing their members of the necessity of working together.

“What Nidaa Tounes wants and Essebsi wants may be two different things,” argued Marks, “I could see how Essebsi might want to have a coalition government more than the party itself.” Nidaa Tounes has rallied behind anti-Ennahda rhetoric. The two-year-old political party is a diverse group of former Ben Ali supporters, smaller political parties, union leaders and left and centre-right politicians, with the only unifying factor being anti-Islamism. Many of its sympathisers blame Ennahda for the country’s post-revolutionary upsurge of radical violence and claim the party turned a blind eye to Ansar al-Sharia mobilisation.

“The whole raison d’être of Nidaa Tounes has been to exclude Ennahda, so I think it will be very difficult for many within the party to accept a coalition,” explained Marks. The two parties are also fundamentally different on an organisational level, in that Ennahda is far more structured than Nidaa Tounes and the latter may risk being eaten up by Ennahda, added Marks.

Political analyst Youssef Cherif doubts Ennahda and Nidaa Tounes could work together in a coalition: “It would be ideal if they do, a perfect case of checks and balances, less polarisation, reaching to different regional and international stakeholders etc.” However, Cherif considers cooperation unlikely as the two parties have distinctly different visions of Tunisia’s future.

On a leadership level, Ghannouchi, an Islamist scholar who lived in exile in Britain during Ben Ali’s rule, and Essebsi, who served under both Habib Bourguiba and Ben Ali, know how to work together, explained Cherif “They did meet several times, and they never attack each other personally.”

However, while Ghannouchi has proven successful in convincing his party members, and keeping a united front before, this may become his biggest challenge yet.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.