Israeli analyst warns that Sisi's regime may collapse

An Israeli analyst has warned that the stability of Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi’s regime is under threat following the death of Saudi’s King Abdullah.

In an article published in Haaretz newspaper yesterday, Zvi Bar’el noted that economic problems and the likely “war of inheritance” may force the new regime in Riyadh to halt its financial obligations towards Al-Sisi.

Bar’el said that it is very likely that the new king may adopt a policy that is different from that of his predecessor and that King Salman may find it necessary to teach Al-Sisi a lesson in statesmanship.

He explained that the fate of Sisi’s regime very much depends on the political support and generous financial backing Saudi Arabia offers. He pointed out that last year King Abdullah paid Egypt $1 billion not to mention his efforts to impart political legitimacy on Sisi’s regime as evident from his keenness to accomplish reconciliation between Egypt and Qatar.

Bar’el further elaborated that Al-Sisi realises the implication of the rush of thousands of Egyptians to stand in long queues to obtain household cooking gas and knows that his inability to provide the essential needs of the people may cost him his authority.

He noted that what could augment matters is that the plan to build one million housing units, whose funding in part was pledged by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, will not be completed for several years if ever at all.

Developments in Saudi Arabia would affect the US policy in the region pointing out that this is what prompted US President Barak Obama to shorten his visit to India and travel to Riyadh in order to ensure that the Kingdom under Salman will not change the fundamentals of its traditional policy, Bar’el explained.

There are signs that Sisi’s regime is heading in the direction of rigging the results of the forthcoming parliamentary elections, he warned. Adding that an election system that grants independents 420 out of a total of 567 seats in parliament means that the regime will be keen to facilitate the success of those independents it wishes to see occupy seats inside the legislative chamber.

Former Israeli Justice Minister Yossi Beilin, on the other hand, expressed hope that King Salman would maintain his predecessor’s commitment to the Saudi peace initiative that was announced by King Abdullah in 2002.

In an article published today in Israel Hayom newspaper, Beilin explained that although King Abdullah only proposed his peace initiative in order to ward off US criticism levelled at Saudi Arabia in the aftermath of the 11 September 2011 attacks, it has, nevertheless, represented a precedent on which one can build more.

He expressed doubt that there is a government in Israel that is able to use this initiative as a basis for a political resolution to the conflict.