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Houthis trapped between a coup and reconciliation

February 12, 2015 at 9:22 am

In a televised statement, the Houthis announced on Friday a “constitutional declaration” entailing the dissolution of Yemen’s parliament and the creation of a 551 member transitional council. The council would be tasked with creating a five member presidential council charged with forming a transitional government to rule the country for the next two years.

Much of the power will continue to lie in the Houthi revolutionary security committee that will approve the members of the presidential council. On Sunday, the Houthis also appointed one of their leaders Mahmoud Al-Junaid, as Yemen’s chief of staff, a move which has been seen by the group’s opponents as a consolidation of the Houthi’s power after taking control over much of the country’s institutions since September.

The supreme security commission will rule the country until the establishment of a presidential committee, headed by the former defence minister General Mahmoud Al-Subaihi of former president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi’s government, who resigned along with the rest of the cabinet in January. His presence alongside the Houthis has caused suspicion amongst those close to Hadi. The Houthis hope that Al-Subaihi, a southerner in control of the council, may allay opposition from southern factions. They also appointed three key ministers from the former cabinet in an effort to calm opposition to their seizure of the state.

The move came after they encircled President Hadi at the Presidential Palace, capturing military bases and other state institutions. The Houthis demanded a greater share of power and protested Hadi’s defaulting from previous agreements with the rebel group.

The Houthis had suspicions of a plan by Hadi, under the guidance of Saudi Arabia, to roll back the power sharing agreement formed between the government and the Houthis last September. Initially, the Houthis claimed that they did not want to remove the president, wanting to ensure that he ended corruption and involved all political factions in the decision-making process.

President Hadi had been struggling to exert his power since assuming the position after the ouster of President Saleh. Eventually, the president and his cabinet resigned on 22 January after the stripping of their powers. The Houthis claimed the resignation was designed to undermine a transition by creating a crisis and forced them to coordinate a viable political transition. Various political factions attempted to mobilise in pursuing their interests for the future of the country, many refusing to cooperate with the Houthis.

In light of the stalemate, the Houthis set a deadline calling on influential groups to resolve the crisis on 31 January, which passed without any agreement between different powerful factions.

The Houthi leader Abdel Malik Al-Houthi made a televised speech broadcast on the group’s channel Al-Maseera on 27 January espousing an inclusive populist and social justice agenda, calling for democracy and unity to allay fears of a Houthi takeover in the increasingly fragmented country.

The situation was further complicated by the failure of the UN sponsored talks spearheaded by UN Assistant Secretary-General Jamal Bin Omar designed to find a consensus between the Houthis and rival parties. Many political groups including Hadi’s supporters, the southern separatist movement, the Yemeni Socialist Party, the Yemeni Congregation for Reform, and the Nasserist Unionist People’s Organisation withdrew from discussions. Due to the militia’s arrest of protesters and continuing siege on the minister’s home, they did not want to legitimate the takeover of the state by the Houthis.

The General People’s Congress (GPC) also withdrew from UN brokered talks, demanding a return to the situation prior to 21 September and calling for the role of parliament to consider Hadi’s resignation and a possible post-Hadi transition. But the stalemate within parliament also created a deadlock.

The GPC is the party of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was believed to be in a power sharing alliance with the Houthis. The party also holds a parliamentary majority and was mobilising its members for the parliamentary session to discuss the resignation of President Hadi.

The former ruling party’s majority in parliament meant that its member Yehia Al-Raei, the speaker in the parliament, temporarily assumed power in the country in line with the constiution.

There were also rumours that the son of deposed Yemeni President Saleh, Colonel Ahmad Ali, would assume presidency of the country. The GPC wanted to use their parliamentary majority and convince the Houthis of Hadi’s resignation. This would have paved the way for a vote likely to deliver Saleh’s son to the presidency.

The involvement of Saleh’s GPC, that represents only a partial aspect of the many remnants of the old regime’s structures and factions, caused suspicion of a coup not dissimilar to the Egyptian coup against President Morsi.

It was likely that the resignation of Hadi came as a surprise for the Houthis who have since been struggling with the fallout. Certainly the GPC’s growing mobilisation in light of the crisis, and rumours last week of a rift between Saleh and the Houthis, seems to have led to a backlash by the Houthis who were likely concerned with the GPC’s growing power.

The Houthis have not gained widespread support. Over the last weeks in Sanaa, thousands have protested the Houthis’ domination of the country. Yet the group has been successful in tapping into resentment of the elite, the slow pace of reform, poverty, tribal unrest and continued US drone strikes.

Since 2004, the Houthi militia, who hail from the minority Shia Zayidi population in Northern Yemen, have rebelled against the government in Sanaa hoping to gain greater independence in the north. They accuse the government of widespread discrimination of the Shia minority and the underdevelopment of their areas.

Their advance into Sanaa has its roots in the federalisation plan signed by President Hadi last February under the guidance of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) dividing the country’s 21 governorates into 6 federal entities. The Houthis opposed the plan as the national divisions would cut through their power bases and weaken their influence in government.

The 2011 uprising that toppled Saleh’s regime did bring marginalised groups to the centre but also entailed the breakdown of centralised authority. The transitional government established by the GCC initiative in November 2011, was split between Saleh’s General Congress Party (GCP) and the former opposition bloc the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), of which the Islah party is the biggest member. The exclusion of the Houthis and southern separatists led to their criticism of the Saudi brokered transition in not doing enough to address grievances.

Certainly, those who participated in the uprising have become disillusioned with the 2012 political transition agreement brokered by the US and Saudi Arabia which was designed to establish stability and democracy. For Saudi Arabia, stability in Yemen is of great importance; the Saudis had been battling the Houthis along their border for several years.

Despite the support of the US and Saudi Arabia, Hadi’s power has been limited. The lack of reform and marginalisation of the poor and the youth has left the country fractured leading to Yemen’s socio-political crisis.

With the seizure of the state by the Houthis, southern separatist movements formed “popular committees” and used their influence in the security services to take charge of security in the southern governorates in defence of Hadi.

Other various groups such as Al-Qaeda in Yemen, the Islah party and their tribal affiliates and battalions loyal to the powerful army General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar were active in opposing the Houthis takeover.

Political divisions have remained strong despite the Houthis’ claim that their most recent move was designed to end instability. Although they claim to want a fair share of power, critics say they want to run the country from behind the scenes.

The GPC has condemned the constitutional declaration and wishes to see the parliament reinstated, whilst the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has also condemned the “coup”.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also announced the Houthi takeover after discussions with the Saudis, calling for the reinstating of President Hadi and the resuming of UN brokered negotiations.

In claiming they want to form a government on the basis of a coalition it seems the Houthis wanted to bolster confidence in their ability to find a peaceful solution. The appointment of four key ministers from Hadi’s cabinet, all Sunni southerners, seems to suggest that the Houthis do not want responsibility for governing the country but want a greater role in shaping government policy and reforming what they see as an inefficient state.

The Houthis have tapped into resentment at the slow pace of reform and frustration with the lack of development. Yet tensions between different political factions have continued and it remains to be seen whether the Houthis can orchestrate a peaceful transition by balancing brute force with diplomacy.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.