As the president and Houthis square up, stability cannot come soon enough for Yemen

When the Zaidi Shia militia group of Houthi rebels seized control of Yemen’s presidential palace last month, it was looked upon as a coup d’état. President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi tendered his resignation as his residence was besieged. He remained under house arrest as the Houthis controlled the capital Sana’a, a city which they had taken more or less unopposed last September.

This weekend, Hadi made a surprise escape from house arrest and resurfaced in Aden. This is Yemen’s second city and was the capital of the formerly independent South Yemen. Here, armed groups loyal to Hadi hold sway. He issued a statement retracting his resignation and labelling all measures taken by the Houthis as “null and illegitimate”. He called upon Yemen’s armed forces to support him. In a letter to parliament withdrawing his resignation officially, Hadi urged lawmakers to help him to “salvage the salvageable and to normalise the security and economic situation in all provinces”. Parliament has not met to accept his letter formally; most government ministers, including Prime Minister Khalid Bahah, remain under house arrest in Sana’a, although some have returned to their posts under orders from the Houthis.

Hadi also called on all government ministers to head to Aden to meet him, suggesting that a parallel government could be formed there. While the Houthis have responded by saying that Hadi’s comeback will not have an impact on the political process, other parties in Yemen say that it could reconfigure the dialogue totally. Since the Houthis seized power in Sana’a a month ago, they have failed to form a government or to reach a deal with other political factions to form a presidential council. If Hadi succeeds in moving the government to Aden, it removes the power vacuum created by the coup.

The president’s return is a surprise development in a crisis that has already been full of unexpected twists and turns. (Until recently, most experts maintained that the Houthis would not attempt to grab power and rule directly; it was expected that they’d use their increased military clout to bargain with the government.) It highlights Yemen’s deep geographical and tribal divisions. North and South Yemen unified in 1990, fought a civil war in 1994 and has never succeeded in becoming a truly unified state, with southern secessionists on one hand and northern rebellions on the other. The Houthis’ power base is mainly in the northern mountainous regions, the heartland of Yemen’s Shia population. The group has opposed the government for over a decade, arguing that the Shia are marginalised by the Sunni majority. In recent months, they have advanced south and west into primarily Sunni areas, but have met with fierce resistance from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the global jihadist group’s Yemeni offshoot, and from Sunni tribesmen. Hadi originally hails from Yemen’s south, but has resided in the north for nearly thirty years, serving as defence minister and vice-president under dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh, before taking his place as president after the 2012 uprising. There is now tension between the two men, as Hadi purged relatives and allies of Saleh from the administration after taking power.

The conflict in Yemen is often painted as a clash between Shia and Sunni, as these are broadly the lines along which the two sides are divided, but experts argue that, fundamentally, this is not about religion, but political and tribal loyalties. Yet, as the conflict rages on and regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran use Yemen as another site for their proxy war, the religious element is undoubtedly exploited.

Even before Hadi’s return, Aden was refusing to follow northern Houthi rule, and there is the distinct possibility that if Hadi establishes his government there it will hasten the partition of Yemen back into two separate states. There is a strong secessionist movement in the south and hundreds of thousands marched in support of Hadi this week, despite the fact that, until now, he had failed to garner much support amongst those in the city who dismissed his efforts to appease their demands. Whether these powerful secessionist actors choose to support Hadi or not will probably determine if he is able to establish an effective government in Aden.

Despite the high drama, most commentators agree that the best hope of lasting peace is the same now as it was four years ago when the revolution began; some form of power-sharing consensus government, which would require compromise from all sides. However, as the various conflicts in this complicated landscape continue, and social, religious and economic divisions deepen, this is looking increasingly unlikely. An impoverished state now riven by years of crisis, Yemen is on the verge of economic collapse. According to UN figures, two-thirds of the population is in humanitarian need. For the people of Yemen, stability in some form cannot come soon enough.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.