Erdogan's comments make thaw in Ankara and Cairo relations unlikely

On paper, Egypt and Turkey are the ideal allies; they share strong religious, cultural and historical ties. Egypt was part of the Ottoman Empire for five centuries, both countries are members of the Union for the Mediterranean, and they share the majority religion of Islam. Yet despite periods of friendliness and strategic cooperation, diplomatic relations between the two have often been strained. In recent years, following the ousting of Egyptian Islamist President Mohamed Morsi in July 2013, things have deteriorated sharply.

Morsi was ousted by the military after mass protests against his rule, and a bloody crackdown against supporters of his Muslim Brotherhood movement ensued. Turkey was one of the fiercest international critics of what it called an “unacceptable coup”, demanding that those responsible for the deaths of Muslim Brotherhood protesters in August 2013 be tried for the “massacre”. Months of diplomatic crisis between the two countries culminated with Egypt expelling Turkey’s ambassador in November 2013, accusing him of undermining the country. Turkey responded by expelling Egypt’s ambassador. Normal diplomatic relations have not yet resumed.

Now, over a year later, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that Ankara will not consider an improvement in relations with Cairo unless Morsi is freed from prison and death sentences against his supporters are lifted. “Mr Morsi is a president elected by 52 per cent of the votes,” Erdogan told Turkish reporters. “They should give him his freedom.” He reiterated his criticism of the Egyptian authorities’ treatment of political prisoners, and of western countries for failing to speak out. “Doesn’t the west say it is against the death sentence? There are 3,000 people sentenced to death. This should be lifted,” he said, referring to hundreds of death sentences handed out by the Egyptian courts to alleged Brotherhood supporters in mass trials.

In Cairo, Erdogan’s criticisms will fall on deaf ears. Turkey’s ruling AK Party, co-founded by Erdogan, had close ties with Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood. The current regime, led by former military head Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, sees him as biased and is likely to disregard his comments. Egypt has rejected Erdogan’s criticism before (when he described Al-Sisi as a “coup leader” and said numerous times that Egypt’s new government is “illegitimate”), saying that Turkey has no right to interfere in another country’s political affairs. Last summer, the Egyptian government warned that relations with Turkey could deteriorate further after Erdogan called Al-Sisi a “tyrant”. In his comments this week, Erdogan hit out against this criticism: “They say ‘Turkey should not interfere with our domestic affairs’. We are not interfering. If something happens in a country against freedoms, we should speak up.”

Despite the war of words between the leaders of the two countries, various legal measures for bilateral relations remain in place. A Free Trade Area Arrangement has been in force between Turkey and Egypt since 2007, while a memorandum of understanding, signed in 2008 to strengthen political, economic and cultural cooperation, still stands. Both are regional powers with significant clout; theoretically, working together is mutually beneficial.

Erdogan’s comments, though, will end recent speculation that ties between Ankara and Cairo might be about to improve. This speculation was based on the fact that Turkey has given its backing to the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen following a recent official visit by Erdogan to Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is one of the key supporters of Al-Sisi’s government, and some analysts suggested that Turkey’s greater cooperation with the kingdom could pave the way for a thaw in relations with Egypt. Yet given the ongoing war of words between the leaders of the two countries, this looks unlikely.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.