Britain's Jews shouldn't worry - Ed Miliband will back Israel

The Jewish Chronicle has commissioned a fascinating political poll of British Jews’ voting intentions at the upcoming election. The results must be frightening for Labour strategists – showing mass approval for Prime Minister David Cameron, and the opposition leader Ed Miliband as a figure few British Jews trust. All this with just three weeks to go to what could be the tightest result in decades.

Around three quarters of those surveyed said the attitudes of the British political parties towards Israel were “very” or “quite” important to them, and while 65 per cent of voters said they “trusted” Cameron over Israel, only ten per cent could say the same for Miliband. Some 69 per cent of Jewish voters told the polling company, Survation, that they would be voting Conservative, with just 22 per cent electing Labour.

These are extraordinary results. Back in 2010, a similar survey by the Institute for Jewish Policy Research found an exactly even split between Labour and Conservative amongst Jewish voters, with just over ten per cent supporting the Liberal Democrats (this group has since dropped to two per cent).

Miliband, labelled “toxic Ed” by the Jewish Chronicle and former pro-Israel Labour Party donors, has driven Jewish voters into Conservative arms with two recent decisions – first to urge Labour MPs to recognise the state of Palestine in a parliamentary vote last winter, and in the heat of the Gaza onslaught a few months before – to criticise the Israeli leadership over their conduct during the war.

Last week, Jonathan Arkush, vice-president of the Board of Deputies, also told the Evening Standard of other smaller incidents, such as when Birmingham Member of Parliament Shabana Mahmood took part in a protest against goods from Israeli settlements, or when Yasmin Qureshi MP was forced to deny she compared Britons joining the Israeli army to those joining the Islamic State (ISIS). Neither of these MPs are close to the Labour leadership, yet even their transgressions are being called out by Arkush, “the voice of British Jewry”.

Meanwhile, according to the Jewish Chronicle, the Liberal Democrats have been punished for advocating an arms embargo against Israel during last year’s Gaza war. With their support dropping from one in five British Jews at the last Election, to just two per cent of British Jews in 2015.

The Conservative party has been capitalising on this, with Cameron giving frequent and re-assuring speeches to notable Jewish groups including the Holocaust Educational Trust, the Jewish youth charity United Jewish Israel Appeal, the Jewish disabilities charity Norwood, the anti-Semitism watchdog Community Security Trust, and the lobbying group, Conservative Friends of Israel. In contrast, Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been largely invisible on the Jewish campaign trail.

The Conservatives have also cleverly positioned Labour as the “anti-Israel party”. Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers, also a member of Conservative Friends of Israel, told Jewish Chronicle reporters in January that the impact of a Labour government on Britain’s relationship with Israel could be “chilling”.

British Jews are one of the UK’s smallest religious minorities, at less than 0.5 per cent of the population. Yet they are also some of the most likely to vote, and of the 12 crucial swing seats – at least one, the constituency of Hendon, will be decided by Jewish voters.

Yet though the issue of Israel is, as British Jews admit, very important in deciding who they vote for – any mistrust in Miliband is misplaced.

As the Independent reported last year: “Mr Miliband has been warned that Jewish backers are deserting the party in droves over what community leaders perceive to be a new, aggressive pro-Palestine policy at the expense of Israeli interests.” As a result, the party is expected to fall short of its fundraising target for the campaign, in what the Independent suggested was a funding “crisis”, largely instigated by the pro-Israel bloc of donors.

Does this financial withdrawal indicate a loss of influence from the pro-Israel lobby? No – if anything, it represents leverage. The pro-Israel lobby are showing their power – if the Labour party waiver in their support of Israeli aggression, no matter how bloody it is, they must pay the political price.

Senior Labour party figures have already shown they are desperate to win back the cash and patronage of Britain’s pro-Israel bloc. Shortly after the donors told the Independent they were pulling out from the election campaign, Labour’s Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper protested that the allegation against her party being “anti-Israel” was “nonsense”. She also told the Jewish Chronicle that the UK would continue to be a “key ally” of Israel under a Labour government.

Labour Friends of Israel, a highly influential lobbying group, was also described before the last General Election as “less unquestioning in its support of the Israeli government than the Conservative Friends of Israel.” Its current members include at least 22 former and current members of Cabinet or the shadow Cabinet.

Miliband may have hesitated for a moment in his support of Israeli aggression, colonisation and land-grabbing, but he has paid the price. The pro-Israel lobby remains firmly in control of foreign policy for both the Conservative and Labour parties, and if Miliband doesn’t win – he will rue the day he crossed them.

If he does win, his party’s fight will have been that much harder without the pro-Israel money. In British politics, unless your support for Israel is unconditional – you can quickly make life very difficult for yourself, and for your party. So is it really worth the trouble?

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.