Opinion

How will the Iran deal affect Middle East peace?

by Battle continues against former regime, says Tunisia's Marzouki

American and other international players have gone out of their way to explain that the latest agreement with Iran is specifically about nuclear weapons and doesn’t deal with the many other hot issues boiling in the Middle East. This disclaimer, though, has not kept pundits and people alike from analysing how the ending of the major source of conflict between the international community and Iran will affect Middle East peace.

Perhaps the most important issue to be looked at is not the result of the agreement but the process that led to it. The hope by many is that the unprecedented international group of countries that coalesced to make this agreement possible can be replicated in other areas, especially the Palestinian cause, which has tremendous public support around the world.

If, as expected, the US president succeeds in overcoming the hawkish warmongers in his own country and Israel opposed to this deal, it could change the tide against those who are against a similar international deal in Palestine.

Of course, the main obstacle to a deal in Palestine has been and continues to be the pro-Israel lobby in America. However, once the dust settles on this agreement and the US Congress realises that it can’t put any more barriers in the way of such international agreements, it is possible that change can happen to this dormant issue about which the US has more or less been the sole opposition.

Actions have consequences and the actions of the hard line Israeli Likud prime minister and his Republican supporters in Congress should be the focus of discussion as the world and the US move from Iran to other Middle East conflicts, including Palestine. Much, as always, depends on how the White House responds to Israel and its bombastic obstructionist leadership that continues to oppose “any deal” with Iran, while saying that they are only opposed to a “bad deal”.

The US will continue to support Israel militarily, no matter what happens on the political level. President Barack Obama has done more in this regard than any of his predecessors, but will this unrestricted support also extend to the political trail, especially in the UN Security Council? France is planning to ask the council to consider recognising Palestine within a specific time period during which negotiations would start. How would the Obama administration act in the UN on this issue?

In Israel the actions and demeanour of Netanyahu are being questioned. Knesset member Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid Party has called on the Israeli prime minister to resign over his role in causing a rift in relations between Israel and its main ally the United States. The fact that the pro-Israel lobby has been weakened by exposing American Jewry to accusations of dual loyalty will no doubt also weaken its attempts to restrain the US government from pushing for a solution to the Palestinian issue.

It is still too early to predict if the nuclear deal will also bring about positive change in Iran’s regional and international policy, especially in Syria and Yemen. Many will also be looking to see if the government in Tehran will have a moderating effect on its supporters in the region, including Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

A rejuvenated US president who is witnessing an increase in his popularity rating might want to leave a strong impression in the history books as his legacy, given that he has yet to close down Guantanamo or help to bring about peace in the Middle East. Will Obama use this historic foreign policy success to push for peace or will he decide to appease Israel and his domestic opponents?

The US Supreme Court ruled this summer that, as head of the executive, the president has the sole power to recognise states. In a case dealing with the state department’s insistence on not describing on official documents that Israelis and Palestinians born in Jerusalem are “born in Israel”, the president won a clear mandate for America’s executive branch. It is highly unlikely that President Obama, even in the last year and a half of his second term, will surprise the world by recognising Palestine, but he can set the stage for such an eventuality.

The Iran deal is specifically about the nuclear capacity of the Tehran Islamic regime, but the after-effects can go a long way towards changing the dark paradigm in the Middle East. If this historic diplomatic breakthrough can be built on, with good will it is not impossible to see that the deal worked out in Vienna can help kick start and possibly even resolve the decades-old Palestine conflict.