Tunisian fears

The closer the time gets to the military attack on Daesh in Libya, the more the fears of the Tunisians grow from the potentially dangerous consequences affecting their country that is already going through a serious economic and social crisis. Therefore, President Beji Caid Essebsi was right to go to the Western leaders and say: “Any proposed solution in Libya must be reached by means of an agreement between the neighbouring countries.” He noted that any thought given to military intervention in Libya must take into consideration the interests of neighbouring countries, beginning with Tunisia. He also said: “The continued state of instability in Libya poses a direct threat to Tunisia and is a factor affecting its economy.” Tunisia remains “the country most vulnerable to the consequences of the crisis in Libya.”

My previous articles have stated that 2016 will be a crucial year in the eyes of the West in terms of confronting Daesh, not only in Iraq and Syria, but also in Yemen and Libya. Therefore, the arrangements occurring in the Arab Levant are organically linked to the arrangements being made in the Arab Maghreb, as the political and military strategic thoughts are being used to deal with the entire region, considering it a single indivisible unit. The Western mind has made egregious errors in estimating and predicting risks and dangers, the Libyans, Tunisians and Algerians are all afraid of a potential military intervention that has been planned by NATO for months. This is because any mistake made by NATO’s military leadership can cause dangerous and radical changes in these countries, especially in Tunisia, which has not been able to mitigate the level of fragility it has been experiencing since the revolution.

This is not only the opinion of the president, who is directly responsible for the Tunisian diplomatic formulation. His point of view is shared by many former Tunisian diplomats, including former foreign minister and former head of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali, Mongi Hamdi, who said during his recent meeting with Essebsi that “any military intervention in Libya will have serious consequences on Tunisian, especially in light of the current economic and social circumstances in the country.”

There is a consensus between the Libyans and their neighbouring Arab governments, as well as the Western forces, regarding the need to uproot and eliminate Daesh, as well as prevent them from continuing to expand and control the oil wells. However, the problem does not lie in this, rather in the conflicting interests, considerations and visions amongst these various parties. For example, the Egyptians’ considerations are not aligned to those of the Tunisians or Algerians. Moreover, the compasses of the armed groups and parties inside Libya are not pointing in the same directions, as major forces in Tripoli continue to refuse aspects of the political solution that was put into effect under UN auspices. This is also because the national unity government, led by Fayez Al-Sarraj, is facing serious challenges due to the domination of the logic of quotas over the logic of feasibility and national interests.

Therefore, Essebsi believes that “resolving the Libyan crisis must go through the political agreement, and the national consensus government must quickly be approved, and the capabilities of the international community, especially the neighbouring counties, must be utilised.”

What we must not forget to take into consideration is the fact that Tunisian armed groups, as well as others, have been waiting over two years for the right conditions in Libya in order to wage a sweeping attack on the south of Tunisia, believing that the army and security agencies in the country do not have the ability to resisit and persevere. Because this is not a secret, the Tunisian military plans have aimed, for a long time, to do everything possible to confront this possibility. German Chancellor Angela Merkel reassured the Tunisian president that his country’s borders with Libya will be secure, but is that enough if the military arrangements are not accompanied by a serious plan to provide economic and social security in this vital area in Tunisia?

Translated from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 8 February 2016.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.