The Kuwaiti-Yemeni talks and the upcoming catastrophe

The legitimate Yemeni government delegation returned, with serious Qatari mediation, to the talks in Kuwait between the bilateral alliance (Saleh and the Houthis) and the delegation headed by Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Abdul-Malik al-Mikhlafi. These talks/deliberations have been going for six weeks and they have just gone in circles, achieving nothing. The government delegation insists on implementing Security Council Resolution 2216, the conclusions reached during the Yemeni national dialogue and the GCC initiative. However, the bilateral alliance refuses this and demands the formation of a new coalition government and if the legitimate government does not accept this, then the de facto authority becomes the legitimate authority. The alliance also increased its demands during the meeting in Kuwait by calling for the formation of a military committee not headed by any of the legitimate authority’s military leaders. In other words, they do not want General Ali Mohsen, the vice president of Yemen, to be a member of the committee.

In order to overcome this impasse and before the forces pressuring the government side and the allied countries supporting the legitimate political leadership intensify their efforts, the military situation on the ground must be improved in favour of legitimacy. This cannot be achieved without the allied forces having the political will to provide military support in the form of all types of weapons that can achieve the goals declared on the eve of the beginning of Operation Decisive Storm. The most important of these goals is the restoration of Yemen, which has been kidnapped by aggressors. The dizzying diplomatic tactic adopted by the bilateral alliance during the Kuwait negotiations with the official government delegation is exposed and seen by anyone monitoring Yemeni affairs. Observers would also notice that the ambassadors and experts from the 18 countries present in the conference in Kuwait are putting psychological and political pressure on the government delegation and are urging them to be patient.

The question here is: Why is it that the legitimate government delegation alone has to be patient? Why aren’t those who are acting against the Yemeni people and their dignity asked to do anything? Why is all the international and Gulf pressure put on the legitimate authority’s delegation? The information we know is that the alliance against the rebels in Yemen is made up of over ten Arab and Muslim Countries. Can’t they, with their military and financial capabilities, resolve the military battle against armed gangs that are only interested in financial gains and seizing power?

The rebels are monitoring all of the political movements in the region by the hour and they believe, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that there is dissatisfaction/disagreement within the members of the alliance regarding each other’s performance in relation to Yemeni affairs. The Houthis and Saleh believe that the Americans are on their side to achieve their demands, a belief that was further solidified after social networking outlets circulated a story about the US embassy in Yemen refusing to send money to any bank associated with the legitimate authority, and instead demanded that the money be sent to the Central Bank in Sana’a. It is a well-known fact that the Central Bank is controlled by the rebel authority that has dominated Sana’a, just as all the state institutions there. The Houthis and Saleh view the legislation issued by the US Congress regarding the September 11th victims’ families’ right to file lawsuits demanding compensation for the victims and accusing Saudi Arabia of the incident, as being a weak point for the Saudis that would make them accept US pressure put on them in service of Saleh and the Houthis.

The information issued by some of the GCC states notes that the positions of Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi are not in sync or aligned with the leadership of one of the GCC countries and that he made an unannounced visit to the capital by means of Gulf mediation. However, the Gulf country’s official met with the Yemeni president in an airport lounge with uncharacteristic coldness. This received a negative reaction from the Yemeni president and the mediator was concerned about this.

There is a hypothetical question being repeatedly asked regarding the Yemeni satiation: If President Hadi steps down from his position as a political solution, giving his position up to his Vice President General Ali Mohsen, will that restore the situation in Yemen to the pre-coup situation? Will the rebels and their supporters accept this?

In my opinion, if this political theory is true and the legitimate president agreed to do so, then the entire situation would be different. There will no longer be a place for a legitimate authority, Operation Decisive Strom will no longer be justified, and the Iranian domination and influence will intensify. This will cause a catastrophe for Yemen and the GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the extent of it will be unknown to anyone but God.

I will end by saying that if an agreement is not made by the Houthis and Saleh accepting the three points, i.e. the implementation of the related Security Council resolutions, the conclusions reached during the Yemeni national dialogue and the GCC initiative, then military resolution is a security necessity for the Gulf and a national necessity for Yemen. Anyone who says otherwise is deluded.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.