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What awaits Gaza after the appointment of Lieberman as Israel’s defence minister?

May 27, 2016 at 3:54 pm

There have been differing views amongst Palestinian political analysts regarding the impact of right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu’s inclusion in the coalition government as well as the party leader’s appointment to defence minister. They have differing thoughts regarding how it will deal with the Gaza Strip, which is governed by Hamas, a group the party has long called for the end of.

Two analysts believe that Lieberman’s presence in government will be different to his presence in the “opposition”, as he will seek to have a balanced policy and will adopt a policy of action and reaction.

Two other analysts believe that Lieberman will seek to deal harshly with Gaza and may launch a military operation against it in order to reinforce his popularity and status.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman signed an agreement on Wednesday stipulating the inclusion of the party in the coalition government.

During the agreement signing, Lieberman said that he will succeed Moshe Ya’alon and take over the defence portfolio, adding: “The most important issue was that of the security of Israel’s citizens. We left everything else aside.”

Lieberman, who is known for his hard-line and extreme positions on Palestinian issues, will be directly responsible for many details regarding life in the Palestinian territories, including movement, settlement, land confiscation, working in Israel and even handing over the bodies of Palestinians killed by the Israeli army.

Adnan Abu Amer, a political writer and dean of the Faculty of Arts at Al-Ummah University in Gaza, believes that during his term, Lieberman will seek to reassure those living close to Gaza and make them feel like he is capable of protecting them and providing them with security.

The beginning of this month witnessed a number of tense days in Gaza, as the Israeli army launched airstrikes. Its forces were also subject to rocket fire from inside the Gaza Strip, according to Israeli sources, but this was neither confirmed nor denied by any Palestinian party.

Abu Amer also told Anadolu that “Lieberman may not only respond to the rocket fire by targeting ‘empty’ areas and sites in the Gaza Strip. He certainly will not declare war, but he may impose field developments on the ground.”

Since Israel announced the ceasefire with the Palestinian factions in Gaza on 26 August 2014, after a 51-day war, the Israeli side has said that it has recorded incidents of rocket fire originating from Gaza fired in the south and that it responded by bombing areas in Gaza.

Abu Amer also thinks it is possible that Lieberman will launch a military operation against the Gaza Strip that will increase his popularity. He may do this to show how serious he is about combatting Hamas and dealing a harsh blow to the resistance.

“In Gaza, there are serious challenges for Lieberman, including how to deal with the tunnels on the borders and the rocket fire from time to time. However, the coming days will tell us how he will act towards Gaza, but it is clear that we are facing a different political era,” added Abu Amer.

Abdel Sattar Qassem, a political science professor at Birzeit University in Ramallah, agrees with Abu Amer regarding the fact that Lieberman will seek to deal with Gaza forcefully, adding to Anadolu that “Gaza will be a real test for Lieberman and he will try to impose his vision and slogans, especially in the event that the situation on the ground deteriorates and heads towards escalation.”

Lieberman has always threatened Hamas, calling for the overthrow of its rule in Gaza. He even criticised the way Netanyahu dealt with the movement during the war waged by Israel in Gaza during the summer of 2014.

“Lieberman is one of the most extreme figures in Israel and he will try to use his position, which is one of the most vital positions and roles, to execute his threats. He may even push matters towards escalation and military confrontation,” said Qassem.

Although decision-making does not occur within the defence ministry, Qassem believes that Lieberman is capable of formulating new opinions and approaches regarding dealing with Gaza forcefully and powerful responses that may lead to a new war.

Ibrahim Al-Madhoun, head of Al-Mustakbal research centre, believes Lieberman may seek to adopt a balanced policy towards Gaza.

Al-Madhoun told Anadolu: “Lieberman is now in the government and is making political decisions, far from the opposition and its slogans. Therefore, he knows very well that any military confrontation with Gaza will cost him dearly.”

“Lieberman is a politician and he will act based on the policy of manipulation and taking advantage of opportunities. He may try hard to prove to the Israeli elites that he is deeper and wiser than they believe,” added Al-Madhoun.

He also expects that 2016 will be a calm year for Gaza, free of any wars or large-scale military operations.

Habib, a political columnist with Palestine’s Al-Ayyam newspaper, agrees with Al-Madhoun. Habib told Anadolu: “Lieberman will aim to change most of his statements, and even his actions. He will not wage a war against Gaza, eliminate Hamas leaders, and impose punitive actions against the inhabitants of Gaza. Lieberman is completely aware that any uncalculated action towards Gaza may backfire on him and his position, and maybe even on the entire Israeli government.”

He added: “The decision to wage war is not easy and Lieberman and the Israeli government will seek to calm the situation down. They will deal with Gaza in accordance with a controlled and disciplined policy based on what is dictated by the situation on the ground, as they are facing an international community and countries that seek to calm the region.”

US Department of State Spokesman Mark Toner said during the daily press briefing held yesterday evening that the new Israeli government formation “raises legitimate questions about the direction of Israeli policy”.

Toner added: “Ultimately, we’re going to judge this government based on its actions. We are going to work with this government as we have with every Israeli government that preceded it with the goal of strengthening cooperation and we remain steadfast in our commitment to the security of Israel and in our commitment to working towards a two-state solution.”

The Israeli Tourism Minister Yariv Levi responded to the American official by saying “the government structure reflects the voters’ votes and such statements are unnecessary”.

He added: “There will be no changes made to the government policy. The Likud Party insisted during the negotiations with Yisrael Beiteinu on the same basic guidelines adopted by the former government. The only difference is that the new government is more stable, which will allow it to work better.”

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.