What lies behind Sisi’s initiative?

The initiative proposed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi to revive the Palestine–Israel peace process and end the internal Palestinian division, is not based on objective foundations; there are ulterior motives. These include self-promotion and the desire to return to the top of the domestic and regional political scene.

The magnitude of the domestic crisis and the nature of the challenges faced by Sisi at the moment on various levels are no secret to anyone. He is being held responsible for Egypt’s crises and facing a lot of criticism at home, even within his close circle, from where media comments have appeared. Criticism of the president was at the top of prohibited actions immediately after the coup against President Mohamed Morsi when Sisi and the military council took control of the country.

Sensitive reports on Sisi’s desk refer to a strong trend in some branches of the Egyptian government and within a number of political and partisan groups which supported him in the past. The talk is of backing for the suggestion, which has some degree of regional and international blessing, to oust Sisi and replace him with someone who is more accepted at home and abroad, is more capable of interacting with all sections of Egyptian society and who will address the various crises.

Al-Sisi can sense the danger and is doing all he can to stabilise his leadership and contain the efforts to oust him. He is thus trying to create glamorous and influential new roles domestically and externally.

At the same time, the economic situation is deteriorating even more, with greater poverty and worsening unemployment. In addition, problems over living standards and concerns affecting the majority of Egyptians have doubled. This has increased the severity of the criticism of the economic policy adopted by Sisi’s government. He has been reduced to dropping media bombshells to distract public attention.

President Sisi is trying hard to restore Egypt to its former glory and regional role, which has diminished due to internal issues over the past few years. He hopes to gain himself a role and status within the regional and international arena based on the importance and fragility of the Palestine-Israel conflict, as well Palestinian reconciliation. This would allow him to invest these efforts in the context of the turbulent Egyptian political scene and establish himself at the heart of Egypt’s political and social equation.

However, it looks as if Sisi’s efforts to bring the Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiation table will be fruitless given that they are on different pages and have very different positions. It seems to be more of a mirage that is impossible to reach under any circumstances, with no sign of any compromise or agreement between the two parties. Egypt’s competition with France, which held an international peace conference early this month, may be good for Israel, but it is definitely not so for Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority.

Abbas does not have any special relationship with Sisi, who actually has close links with the Palestinian president’s arch-enemy, Mohammed Dahlan. He also knows that Sisi cannot and does not want to put pressure on Israel, and that the most he can do is arrange protocol meetings and celebrations between the two sides, with no real ability to go into the details of the negotiation crisis.

The Palestinian leader’s acceptance of Sisi’s proposal to bring both sides together, regardless of the results, would be viewed as political and national suicide, something that is sure to disappoint people across the board in Palestine. At the same time, Abbas and the PA have hopes for the international conference in France, believing that it will expose Israel’s position in the international arena.

There is no doubt that the issues raised at the conference and the nature of the discussions about the Palestine-Israel conflict, as well as potential outcomes from participating governments, all lean in favour of the Palestinian position. This will contrast with the Israeli position that refuses to offer any goodwill gesture to make the negotiations a success, beginning with a freeze on illegal settlement activity, as demanded by the PA president. Thus, Abbas and the PA are more interactive with the French than any other initiatives, despite the fact that the PA believes that the Paris conference has zero chance of resulting in effective measures to rein-in Israeli oppression and extremism.

The truth of the matter is that the Israeli positions set out by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu two days ago do not leave any reason for optimism about the possibility of achieving anything. This is something of which the PA is completely aware and it bases all of its actions on this. The authority is aiming to expose the Israeli position and push it into a corner internationally and alleviate some of the pressure on itself.

Abbas is crossing a minefield with great caution as far as Sisi’s proposal is concerned. He is unable to avoid his attempts to hold a trilateral meeting between himself, Netanyahu and the PA leader, even though it is a dangerous trap in every sense of the word. The Israeli position is backed by America, which favours Sisi’s proposal and openly rejects the French initiative, which is supported strongly by Abbas and the PA. Sisi’s efforts look doomed to fail.

Furthermore, Sisi’s efforts in terms of Palestinian reconciliation look set to fare little better. His offer to Fatah and Hamas is little more than a media stunt. It gave no indication of any practical measures to bring the two sides together and end their dispute.

The Egyptian president is not oblivious to the fact that the two movements’ positions and their lack of a national management mechanism to end the division is based purely on their own agendas which serve their factional interests. He is also aware that the problem does not lie in reaching an agreement between them as much as it lies in the absence of the political will to implement it.

Sisi knows that he will not find anything as influential or able to attract as much interaction as Palestinian reconciliation. It is a chronic concern for almost all Palestinians and many Egyptian citizens who love the Palestinian people; they know that they are suffering from the ongoing split in their daily lives and that it is affecting the national cause.

All Sisi wants is for the media to mention his name and praise his efforts to unite the Palestinian; to distract attention, if only temporarily, from the burdens and dangers of the crises plaguing his country.

In the absence of results and conclusions, the benefits reaped by Sisi from outwardly adopting Palestinian reconciliation as a problem to solve appear to be positive. Such benefits, though, are short-term and will evaporate quickly.

Given the lack of interaction with Fatah and Hamas over Sisi’s proposal, Egypt’s role in reconciliation will be nothing more than a formality that will not go beyond the media. Cairo has neither taken any steps to bring Hamas and Fatah together, nor made any statements or announced any political measures as a follow-up to the president’s proposal. The matter has been limited to media coverage. Sisi will stay in the spotlight, as he wants, but not for long.

A more accurate interpretation of the Egyptians’ official position on the Palestinian split is Cairo’s desire, on a practical level, to use Hamas to protect its borders and establish security coordination with the movement in Sinai, without making any radical changes to the nature of its relationship with Egypt. The government in Cairo does not want to throw Hamas a lifeline by opening the Rafah Border Crossing. Nevertheless, counting on the future of the relationship between Hamas and Egypt, given the current developments in the area, can weaken the Islamic movement and push it to surrender or break under the burden of the siege.

In short, by means of this initiative, which was launched purely for reasons of self-promotion, Sisi is trying to hang on to anything that may delay his departure from the Egyptian political scene. He is trying to prove himself to be a key player and someone who cannot be overlooked in the local and regional equation. However, the distractions will soon fade and the crises will be back in everyone’s face without any disguises or makeup.

Translated from Aljazeera.net, 7 June, 2016

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.