The battle for Sirte

Forces loyal to Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) and Presidential Council are waging a fierce war against Daesh in its last strongholds in Sirte that are considered strategically vital for overlooking the sea, being close to the oil crescent and a major location linking eastern Libya and the west. Daesh chose Sirte as its main position to secure its provision with weapons, money and men by land and sea, and because control of the city provides it with multiple crossings for movement in the Libyan interior, and guarantees important income from the illegal export of oil and the imposition of taxes on city residents.

However, it looks as if the extremist group has failed to maintain its positions in Sirte, after incurring heavy losses of equipment, land and men during confrontations with experienced GNA combat troops composed of fighters from Misrata and cities in western Libya, such as Tripoli, Zawya, Gharyan and Zuwarah.

It seems, therefore, that the end of the battle of Sirte in favour of the GNA led by Fayez Sarraj is imminent, following the decline of the combat and defence capabilities of Daesh, and the potential reduction of its presence in a number of small residential and industrial complexes. The defeat of the so-called Islamic State in Sirte sends many messages about significant changes, some of which are political while others are economic; a third category belong to the sphere of regional and foreign affairs.

On the political level, the imminent victory in Sirte says a lot about the strength of the Presidential Council and the ability of the GNA to unite the Libyan military under the banner of the state in order to defeat Daesh, the common enemy of all the Libyan people. This has thrown the spotlight on Sarraj’s government as a responsible institution, attached deeply to the unity and integrity of Libyan territory and inclined to impose security and civil order, thus strengthening its credibility and the support of the people.

It is quite clear that the advances made by the GNA forces on the battlefield reveal the readiness and seriousness of the unity government to tackle terrorism. Sarraj and his team actually look as if they have taken the initiative in this respect. In contrast, the Dignity camp led by retired General Khalifa Haftar, supported by the Tobruk government under the leadership of Abdullah Al-Thani and the deputies in the parliament led by Aguila Saleh, all looked to be reluctant to join the battle for Sirte. This is due not only to the acuity of the political conflict among these people, but also to their concentration in fighting the revolutionary forces and the armed groups opposed to them in Benghazi. On the other hand, more than two years after the start of the Dignity operation, the axis allied with Haftar is still unable to end the battles in its favour in Benghazi, which reflects its limited military and ground presence in the region. It is, therefore, evident that the failure of the Haftar camp to liberate Sirte from the grip of Daesh will affect its popularity in a negative way and undermine its chances in the making of the new Libya. As a consequence, this boosts the National Reconciliation camp, which has taken advantage on the field by its opposition to Daesh and its expulsion from a strategic Libyan city.

On the economic level, the battle for Sirte is important because it enables the Sarraj government to take back the city’s strategic port and expand its geographic dominance, which now extends from the town of Ajdabia in the east to Tripoli in the west. The battle also enable Sarraj to regain the government’s hold over oil sources; in this respect it has received significant cooperation from the forces in charge of the protection of oil installations under the leadership of Ibrahim Hathrane. Hence, the unity government can now export oil relatively easily at a level sufficient to contribute towards reducing the country’s financial difficulties. In turn, this will bring some liquidity for the banks and improve citizens’ living conditions and purchasing power.

Regionally and internationally, the unity government has sent a message to the international community and the UN that it is serious about fighting Daesh and can defeat it. It is worth noting here that GNA forces have been supported by the US and Italy.

It is also possible that the result of the battle for Sirte will make some states like Egypt and Russia rebuild their alliances in Libya and possibly try to build bridges with the unity government; this will strengthen the GNA’s credibility within and beyond Libya as well as the significant progress that it has made in the fight against terror.

The battle of Sirte provided a historic opportunity to unite the belligerents in Libya under the banner of a strong nation state, but it seems that the obsession with a political quota system and personal interests prevented this. What is sure, though, is that the battle was decisive in the weakening of Daesh and the re-drawing of the political landscape and economic reality in Libya. The winner will undoubtedly have a crucial role in drafting the hoped-for parameters for Libya’s future.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.