The Gulf States and Turkey are in favour of adjusting imbalances

In the middle of the Iraq-Turkey dispute about the latter’s participation in the battle to expel Daesh from Mosul, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said at a ceremony for the judiciary, which was aired on 12 October, that the issue of Mosul “could disturb balances in the region”. This is perhaps the first time that the matter has been approached with transparency; it is something that many can sense but only a few speak about it in public.

Fighting Daesh, although a priority, is used by Iran and Russia as a cover to establish a new reality in our region, where absolute power is shared between them. On this occasion, influence is not only installed through military bases, but also through penetrating communities and their districts, eliminating the opposition and exterminating their social context. This is what Tehran and Moscow are doing in Aleppo, with some international bodies accusing them of war crimes; the US, meanwhile, has described Russian actions as “terrorism” at the UN Security Council.

Sunni communities are being targeted in broad daylight, and continuously, in a manner that promotes sectarian conflict. This is what Erdogan pointed out, without mentioning Sunni communities specifically, and it is clear that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are also targets.

The official Iraqi objection to Turkey’s participation is, as everyone now knows, actually coming from Iran. This is the imbalance that has been compounded by the Russian leadership, which is taking a huge risk by being hostile to one billion Sunni Muslims, in addition to provoking hostility in the face of the West. If Iran and Russia, and those individuals and groups in Iraq and Lebanon who share their ideologies, agree to act barbarically to resolve internal political problems —destroying entire cities and uprooting people and burying them under the rubble, for example — they must know that the whole world, with the exception of China, North Korea and Israel, refuse to accept such barbarism, which is the highest form of terrorism.

Countries in the region are considering this chaos, which hasn’t been witnessed since the fifties, with extreme apprehension. Thus, the limited Turkish presence in Syria and Iraq represents a delayed attempt to adjust the balance, and to remind Russia and Iran that the area is not void of defence capabilities. It is also there to protect Turkey’s interests on its the borders with Syria and Iraq and to face up to Daesh, which is dangerous and being used by Iran and Russia as a cover to implement their expansionist policies. According to various statistics, 83 per cent of Russia’s military action in Syria does not target Daesh. As for Iran and its Iraqi and Lebanese proxies, it is saving Daesh for as long as possible, in order to continue its propaganda that it is targeting the extremist group. The entire war, meanwhile, as far as Iran, Russia and the Syrian regime are concerned, is waged mainly against civilians and Syria’s national opposition, as well as the Sunni communities in Iraq. Not even Sunni mosques are excluded from the onslaught.

This chaotic situation, which has no moral, legal or political rules, is leading to disasters and imbalance. Hence, there is a great strategic need for Turkey to have a role, especially given that Egypt is absent. Turkey is the largest regional power and is extending a hand of friendship and cooperation to the Arab people; it is the most important Muslim state adjacent to Europe and enjoys membership of NATO. It has a mutual interest with the Arab world to rein-in Iran’s wild side while trying to build a balanced relationship with Tehran. This has prompted the Gulf States to develop their relations with Ankara within the framework of open, comprehensive cooperation that has a strategic prospect.

The meeting of Gulf and Turkish foreign ministers in Riyadh on 13 October came at a very sensitive time, with the US administration suffering from a lack of a clear vision. This is interpreted by Russia as a sign of weakness and loss of political will, which Moscow and Tehran can exploit to the maximum in order to escalate the conflict and force the international community to comply with Russian demands relating to Syria. It is as if Moscow is announcing that Syria has become a Russian colony — with a share for Iran — and no one in the world can intervene in this matter, least of all the Syrian people.

Thus, Turkish officials have warned of a new world war arising from the differences between Russia and Iran on one hand, and the West and the Muslim world on the other, with regards to the crises in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Furthermore, Moscow is also concerned that some neighbouring countries are getting sophisticated weapons from the US and NATO. According to Britain’s Daily Mail, the Russian media have quoted senior officials saying that they have been told by the Kremlin to send their families back to Russia at a time when Moscow has, it is claimed, transferred nuclear missiles to its border with Poland. In the meantime, France and Britain are seeking to impose new sanctions on Russia and the Syrian regime, which indicates increasing tensions.

In this atmosphere, the Riyadh meeting of foreign ministers has special significance as the first of its kind involving all members of the Gulf Cooperation Council with Turkey; moreover, it was a harmonious meeting as far as general and basic political visions are concerned, and determining the risks that threaten the region. All concerned also agreed to activate joint committees in at least twenty vital sectors, a matter that is considered to be a quantum leap in Turkish-Gulf relations.

Turkey has also taken steps to normalise its relations with Moscow, but the improvement is not reflected positively in their respective positions on current topics. In fact, all we have seen is an end to mutual media incitement and officials from both countries starting to adopt a calmer tone indicating friendship, but nothing more.

Iraqi officials are also warning of a war, but a regional not a world war, based on the controversy over the preparations for the Mosul battle. In the meantime, Turkey insists that the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga are the two groups which are best qualified for involvement, and that the participation of the Popular Mobilisation Militias — predominantly Shia — would be catastrophic for the city’s population of Turkmen and Sunnis. The same is true of the possible participation of the Kurdish Workers’ Party, which Turkish troops based in Ba’shiqah Camp just 12 Kilometres from Mosul would not allow. The statement issued by the Riyadh meeting endorsed the Turkish position on this issue.

As far as the crisis in Yemen is concerned, Iran continues to escalate matters by sending its warships to lie offshore. On 13 October, two Iranian navy vessels arrived in the Gulf of Aden in a tense standoff with the US navy in the Red Sea. Moscow supports Iran’s moves, and its manoeuvres to block a political solution in Yemen, reflecting what is happening in Syria at Russia’s behest; the annihilation of the Syrian people has taken on all the appearances of being in Russia’s national interests.

While the Gulf States and Turkey are in favour of adjusting the imbalances in the region, the former are also strengthening themselves in the face of these risks. What, though, are the other Arab states doing about them?

Translated from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, 15 October 2016.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.