US, Middle East analysts fear intelligence being distorted

A National Intelligence survey found officials in the US Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees combat operations in the Middle East and South Asia, had far less confidence that superiors were not distorting or suppressing their analyses than counterparts in the other eight American military commands, Reuters reported today.

The December 2015 survey, conducted by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), is expected to be one of the main topics of a House intelligence committee hearing today.

It is likely to reinforce questions in Congress and elsewhere about whether the administration is pressuring officials to make over-optimistic claims about progress against Daesh and the Taliban so US President Barack Obama can leave office in January on a high note.

A Republican congressional report earlier this year found “widespread dissatisfaction” among analysts at CENTCOM who thought their superiors were distorting their reports.

In one of its more striking findings, only 36 per cent of CENTCOM officials surveyed said they were confident that their mid- and senior-level managers were not deliberately distorting or suppressing their analyses.

As a point of comparison, the average for the other eight commands, which include those in the Pacific, Africa and Europe, was 72 per cent – double that of CENTCOM analysts.

CENTCOM directs US military missions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East and South Asia.

Asked if “anyone attempted to distort or suppress analysis on which you were working in the face of persuasive evidence,” 40 per cent of the CENTCOM respondents said yes, compared to an average of 13 per cent.

The survey found that when that question was asked, 65 per cent of CENTCOM’s respondents said “politicisation” was an issue.

“The data suggests respondents from Central Command believe their workplace adheres to objectivity standards relatively less than do workplaces of their IC counterparts,” the report said, using an acronym for the US intelligence community.

Much of CENTCOM’s analysis consists of daily bomb damage assessments and other situation reports, not strategic intelligence, and constitutes only a small part of the material that finds its way from numerous other intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the National Security Agency, into the President’s daily intelligence briefing.

Nevertheless, the findings, which have not been public until now are likely to raise questions about intelligence assessments provided by CENTCOM.

Earlier this year, a US congressional report said CENTCOM painted too rosy a picture of the fight against Daesh in 2014 and 2015 compared with the reality on the ground and grimmer assessments by other analysts.

The Defence Department Inspector General is investigating the findings and is expected to issue a separate report, military officials said.