Germany’s future role in the Middle East

There are two crucial elections coming up in Europe; Germany and France will be electing their chancellor and president respectively in 2017. In France’s case, there are a number of potential presidential candidates, including the incumbent president Francois Hollande of the Socialist Party. Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppe are the two front-runners for the Republican Party presidential nomination, and one of them is favoured to win the presidency in 2017.

Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, is also running for the top job. The polls have not placed her in front at the moment, but after the spectacular shock of the Brexit referendum results in the United Kingdom and the outcome of the 2016 United States presidential elections, polls have proven to be less reliable.

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel has indicated that she will stand for a fourth term as the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in 2017. Her party CDU will have to garner enough representation in the Bundestag for her to be elected. Germany under the chancellorship of Angela Merkel is crucial in the new global political order particularly in light of the rise of right-wing politics in Europe and the election of Donald Trump in the US.

Germany’s positive image as one of the world’s greatest exporters of philanthropy, efficiency and professionalism has made it a reference point for other countries. It has become synonymous with perfection because of its high quality products and services the country continues to supply to the world. Its economic and political successes have given it a default leadership role in the world.

However, the rise of right-wing politics is threatening the political stability in the world, particularly in Europe. The number of racially motivated attacks against immigrants is gaining momentum and the backlash to this new phenomenon might lead to a violent reaction as victims seek to defend themselves, which in turn may lead to a widespread state of civil conflict. The tensions felt in the streets of the capitals of Europe suggests a continent that is like a ticking time bomb. Europeans are even turning against income generating tourists who are somehow lumped together with the “undesirable other”. Germany’s institutional memory and moral high ground under Merkel’s leadership is essential in pushing back this scourge and in averting further escalations.

Germany will also have an increased political role in the Middle East. It has demonstrated leadership by assuming political responsibility and engagement on three fronts in the region.

First, recently it welcomed thousands of refugees from Syria, and this has contributed tremendously to the profile of Germany in the Middle East. Germany has become one of the main stakeholders in the Syrian refugee crisis and its politics, and consequently it will be part and parcel of future political settlements in Syria. The refugee challenge is the most divisive issue in Europe and the greatest threat to European cohesion. The “open door” refugee policy adopted by Germany will entrench the people’s relationship with Syria, increasing cross cultural exchanges and interactions. This new reality will most likely culminate in growth in economic cooperation between Germany and the Middle East.

Second, the large numbers of Turkish immigrants in Germany who are growing impatient with the policies of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have unwittingly entangled Germany in the politics of yet another country in the region – Turkey. The political contestations and polarisations in Turkey have spilt over into Germany. Turkey and Germany are therefore likely to continue butting heads as Turkey intensifies its efforts to fight what it calls “Gulenist terrorists” many of whom reside and are citizens of Germany. Furthermore, the strong Kurdish representation in Germany has made the country an interesting political mobilisation ground.

Third, Germany will also be key in saving the P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran. Donald Trump has indicated that he will repeal the deal when he comes to power in January 2017. Germany, as a key member of the EU and as a sponsor of the deal, is most likely to exert pressure to save the deal.

The Middle East will face difficulties moving forward. The aggression of Russia in Syria and the election of Trump will most likely add to the refugee crisis. At some stage Germany as the largest host of refugees in Europe will have to contribute to the solution at the source.  The alliance between Russia, Iran and the advent of an unpredictable US stance under Trump could worsen the situation in Syria. Europe under the leadership of Germany is important to counter the balance of this new global power.

In conclusion, the decline in global politics is pinning all hopes on Germany, particularly on Chancellor Merkel. Her leadership during the global economic meltdown and on the refugee crisis in Europe has rendered her indispensable. Added to this is the imminent departure from the global political scene of President Barack Obama. Although many have argued that UK Prime Minister Theresa May brings hope to global politics and might supplement Merkel’s exceptionalism, her political mandate, which is the execution of Brexit, disqualifies her and adds to the global political pessimism.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.