Russia's new openness in the Middle East

It is clear that the Russian leadership has become convinced about the decline of America’s management of Middle Eastern affairs and sensitive issues. Perhaps new US President Donald Trump’s campaign slogan was right when he said, “We will work to make America great again”, as Obama’s has been the weakest US administration in terms of foreign policy.

This has opened the door wide to Russian President Vladimir Putin to move more freely on international issues; his ambitions are probably greater than merely filling the void left by the US in Syria, Palestine, Iraq, Iran and elsewhere in the region. This can be seen by the fact that Russia’s intervention was not limited to its support for Assad’s regime and using its veto on at least five occasions to block the UN Security Council from issuing resolutions condemning the Syrian president for killing his own citizens. Moscow’s intervention progressed to military control of Syria, with troops on the ground and its air force bombing city after city. Russia is also, of course, a co-sponsor of the potential peace agreement, along with Turkey.

Evidence of Russia’s openness to other Middle Eastern issues is its leadership’s invitation for the Palestinian factions to meet in Moscow in the middle of January to discuss reconciliation. Those invited include representatives of Hamas and Fatah who will be seeking to end a hiatus since the previous agreement reached in April 2014.

US sources have revealed that Russia is improving its political relations with Afghanistan’s Taliban and is making an effort to cooperate in a “plan to weaken NATO”. A number of Putin’s advisers have said that Russia is also working on a rapprochement with Turkey and could even prise it from NATO and the EU. Looking at the vision possessed by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation for security and international cooperation, which welcomes Turkey’s accession (unlike the EU), this shows that Russia is adopting a new strategy to get involved in thorny international problems while competing to be the top country in the world.

In the event that Russian intervention fails even in only one issue, then that will be indicative of its failure in the ongoing conflict with America, even if Russia doesn’t show it. Perhaps the greatest test for Russia is in Syria, especially after the agreement reached with Turkey between the conflicting parties. It was presented to the Security Council a few days ago and received moral support, being viewed as an attempt to assist the Geneva negotiations sponsored by the UN. This put Russia at the centre of the race to end the violence in Syria and then have a successful peace conference in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan; if not, Moscow stands to lose its role as a major power in a number of issues in which it is involved.

The Syrian opposition’s decision to freeze any talks related to the Astana negotiations in light of the violations committed by Assad’s forces and the militias they control, is a challenge to Russia’s sponsorship, not only as a guarantor for the regime, but also as a key international player. If Russia cannot force the Syrian army and sectarian militias to commit to the ceasefire with the presence of the Russian army in Syria, will it be able to do likewise elsewhere?

Russia must realise that the US will not allow it to succeed in imposing a political solution in Syria, even though the Americans have not worked particularly hard to end the conflict. This has led already to additional killing and destruction, whilst also causing more damage to Russian credibility.

America will not find anyone better than Bashar Al-Assad and the Iranian government to thwart Russia’s efforts in the Kazakhstan talks; the Syrian president and the Iranian militias will break the ceasefire on the ground, even if the Astana meeting is held, as the government in Tehran is determined to block political efforts to achieve a peace deal. Russia is thus facing the challenge of overcoming Iran’s stonewalling and working to make Tehran’s ambitions fail not only in Syria but also in other parts of the Middle East.

Translated from arabi21, 5 January 2017

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.