Electoral reforms but no real change in Lebanon

Lebanese will have a first opportunity in nine years to vote in a general election on Sunday under new rules, expected to bring some changes to parliament but preserve a unity government combining its main political blocs.

A smooth election and the swift formation of a new government are not only important for Lebanon’s political stability but also to bolster a weak economy that is in dire need of reforms and investment.

The new voting system has generated uncertainty in some districts, but Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, looks likely to form another unity government that includes Iran-backed Shia movement Hezbollah.

Many analysts predict Hariri’s parliamentary bloc will lose seats in this election.

Read: Lebanese expats vote in parliament polls for the first time

Hezbollah may emerge stronger, though there is little prospect of it and its allies securing the two-thirds majority needed to dominate the state.

Hariri has called for a new government to be formed swiftly to press ahead with reforms to put public finances on a sustainable path. Otherwise donors may withhold $11 billion in soft loans pledged in April to help revive the economy.

Changes since last elections

Last time Lebanese voted for a new parliament in 2009, since then Syria’s civil war from 2011 has aggravated Lebanese political divisions and led to years of paralysis.

As a result, the country spent 29 months without a president after former president Michel Suleiman left office in May 2014. Political factions could not agree on a candidate to replace him. In the end, Hariri had to compromise and in 2016 struck a deal that made Hezbollah ally Michel Aoun head of state, while Hariri became prime minister.

Aoun, an 81-year-old former army general, secured 83 votes in the 128-seat chamber when MPs convened for their 46th attempt to choose a head of state.

Lebanon splits power among religious groups according to quotas adjusted at the end of the 1975-90 civil war. The president is always a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the parliament speaker a Shia.

In parliament, the 128 seats are split evenly – 64 for Christians and 64 for Muslims including Druze, with the two halves further divided among 11 total sects. Each electoral district has seats apportioned according to its demographic makeup.

In the past, voters would cast a vote for each seat in their district, with winners decided by a majority. A new law was finally agreed last year, with a compromise requiring voters to choose both a favoured list and a preferred candidate from it, with seats awarded under a complex formula.

Some critics say the new system still favours traditional local bigwigs. However, it has introduced uncertainty in some districts and produced an array of alliances at a local level.

Lebanon’s main political players

The Future Movement

Led by current Prime Minister Saad Hariri who enjoys backing from the West, notably France which intervened last November when it is widely acknowledged that Saudi Arabia – once a close ally of the Hariri family – forced him to resign, though Riyadh and Hariri publicly deny it.

Hariri took on his political role after his father Rafik Hariri was assassinated in 2005.

The early years of his political career were defined by confrontation with Hezbollah. A UN-backed court later charged five Hezbollah members over the Hariri killing. The group denies any role.

Hezbollah

Hezbollah is the most powerful group in Lebanon. It was founded in 1982 by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and is deemed a terrorist group by the United States. It has grown even more powerful since 2012 as a key player in the Syrian war, fighting in support of President Bashar Al-Assad.

Hezbollah entered parliament for the first time in the 1990s. It also has ministers in government.

Hezbollah troops at a supporters rally [Anadolu Agency]

The FPM was established by Maronite Christian politician Michel Aoun, a former army commander who led one of two rival governments in the final years of the 1975-90 civil war.

Aoun became president in 2016 as part of the political deal that made Hariri prime minister. The FPM is led by Aoun’s son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, and is allied to Hezbollah.

The Amal Movement

The Shia Amal Movement was a civil war adversary of Hezbollah but has been closely aligned with the group since the conflict ended. It is led by Nabih Berri, who has been speaker of parliament since 1992. Amal also has close ties to Al-Assad.

The Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

The PSP is led by Walid Jumblatt, the strongest figure in the Lebanese Druze minority. Jumblatt inherited his role from his assassinated father, Kamal, and was a prominent civil war leader. Jumblatt is in the process of handing authority to his son, Taymour, who is running in his place in the election.

The Lebanese Forces (LF)

The LF led by Maronite Christian politician Samir Geagea emerged from a powerful civil war militia by the same name.

Geagea led the LF through the final years of the war after the 1982 assassination of Bashir Gemayel, its founder. Geagea, the only Lebanese militia leader to serve jail time over civil war violence, is the most significant Christian opponent of Hezbollah.

The Kateab

Also known as the Phalange Party, the Kateab is led by Maronite Christian politician Sami Gemayel, who took over the leadership from his father, former president Amin Gemayel.

Sami Gemayel moved to the fore after the assassination of his brother, Pierre, in 2006 during a wave of killings targeting opponents of Syrian influence in Lebanon.

On 16 September 1982, following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the right-wing Christian Phalange militia stormed the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in West Beirut and began a massacre which ended in the deaths of hundreds, maybe thousands, of mostly Palestinian civilians.

The Marada Movement

Marada is led by Maronite Christian politician Suleiman Franjieh, a close Hezbollah ally and a friend of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Hariri initially backed Franjieh for the presidency in 2016 but the deal did not gain wider backing. Instead, Hariri struck the deal that made Aoun head of state.

This article was syndicated from Reuters

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.