US escalation against Iran: options, prospects and the role of Islamists

America’s escalation against Iran, with the demands and threats made by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, was the focus of the discussions during a series of recent meetings held in Beirut between Islamic leaderships from various areas. The aim was to look into the dimensions of Washington’s new strategies and the implications for the regional and international situation. The participants also looked into how to address the threats posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its allies in the region, in addition to Russia’s and Europe’s positions towards the US escalation.

What is the most prominent data available to the Islamic leaderships regarding the dimensions of the US escalation? What are the options and prospects for the US-Iran confrontation in the region? Where do the Islamic groups stand on these developments?

For a start, the new US strategy, in terms of its withdrawal from the nuclear agreement or the demands and threats issued by Pompeo, aims to limit Iran’s regional role. It aims to remove Iran from Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as well as cut it off from its allies and the resistance forces. The new strategy also intends to prevent Iran from developing ballistic missiles and to stop its nuclear enrichment programme permanently.

The escalation coincides with the ongoing preparations for the “deal of the century” related to the Palestinian issue. The idea is to get the deal through without any opposition from Tehran and the resistance forces by means of distracting the Arab world with the conflict with Iran. What’s more, it means to satisfy some of the Gulf countries that are angry about Iran’s growing regional role. This escalation would be the price to pay for passing the deal and securing the support of some Gulf States.

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There are many questions about the European and Russian roles in all of this. Will the European countries, Russia and, indeed, China succeed in absorbing this escalation and continue their cooperation with Iran, or will they resort to putting pressure on Tehran to accept new agreements in order to ease the escalation? Iran’s withdrawal from Syria may be the first demand in such deals.

Iran’s initial position has been to confront the US escalation and refuse to comply with Washington’s conditions and threats. This has emerged in the positions that Iranian officials have adopted in response to the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. However, to what extent is Iran capable of confronting the escalation and able to withstand any new sanctions, for example, after facing 39 years of confrontation and thwarting US plans, ever since the 1979 Islamic Revolution?

The US escalation requires the Islamic groups, whether they are allies of Iran or opposed to its policies in some regional countries, to reconsider their positions, and to look for new options in order to face the next phase. Strengthening Turkish-Iranian cooperation and reactivating relations between all Islamic forces may be a practical and quick response to confront the escalation, which will affect all of the countries in the region that reject the American policies.

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Given all of this, the Islamic leaderships which met in Beirut expect the escalation against Iran and Hezbollah to intensify in the near future, either through America, Israel or the Gulf. They believe that the escalation will be on military, financial, political and media levels and that the Israeli attacks on Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria will continue, prompting reactions from the axis of resistance. Thus, the US escalation will put the entire region on the brink of a comprehensive conflict, despite the keenness of all parties not to slip into a war.

The Islamic leaders in Beirut revealed that the resistance axis forces are in a continuous state of alert to face all possibilities. If the Russian and European efforts do not succeed in absorbing the US escalation, all options are open.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 23 May 2018

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.