Jordan’s protesters don’t want the regime to go. They want reform.

No popular protest or movement occurring in the past in Jordan can be compared to the protests and strikes taking place in Jordan over the past few days. They can truly be described as the true version of the Arab Spring in Jordan, compared to the mass movement that broke out in 2010, lasting about two years. However, its composition and nature was not similar to that of the Arab peaceful protests, as it did not reach that level. Instead, it remained limited and mostly linked to ideological forces.

As for the recent protests, they were characterised with unprecedented features as the strike carried out by the professional unions on 30 May was unique and a precedent in modern history. Interaction with the strike was good and it was followed by protests all across Jordan, including the 4th Circle in Jabal Amman, where the Cabinet headquarters is located. These protests were peaceful and associated with groups that are not involved in the political process and a large part of them do not have any prior experience with political work or even popular protests.

Above all, it is clear that there is a large percentage of protesters from the middle class and from the new young generation. There is also a large municipality that witnessed protests with a more material and symbolic nature, making the geographical and demographic area of ​​the protests larger than each time.

In addition to this, a large segment of middle-class Amman, which is of Jordanian-Palestinian origin, has moved collectively and prominently within the protests, something that has not happened in recent decades.

What happened, then, to get the stagnant water moving, and to reverse the situation of the middle class from stagnation, negativity and general indifference to activeness, efficiency and movement, after a large number of them abstained from participating in the popular movement at the height of the Arab Spring?

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The direct cause is the amended income tax draft bill that has affected the middle class more than it had in the past by reducing tax exemptions (housing and education), increasing the tax bracket and increasing the expected bank interest, which greatly affects their loans. This is all in addition to the expected increase in prices, and the negative effects on investment, which also harms a portion of the middle class as well.

Although these are the stated reasons for making the goal to withdraw the income draft bill, overthrowing the current government is a major demand by the trade unions that represent this class today in negotiations with the government. Those observing the protest discourse in the streets, as well as its size and level, given the participation of many sections of the society that are not affected by the draft bill sent to the Cabinet, would find that the draft bill is only one of the reasons for this protest and is actually just the straw that broke the camel’s back.

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There are many accumulations and developments that created a major negative atmosphere in the relationship between the government and the street. This was revealed by the figures reported by the Centre for Strategic Studies in Jordan, which shocked everyone due to the very low and unprecedented level of the government’s popularity. This was an indication (not picked up by anyone) of the existence of a real crisis, before the issue of the income tax draft bill and its consequences.

It is true that the crisis seems economic and financial linked to budget, taxes, deficit and budget, or the decline in investment and growth, the high unemployment rate, and increase in prices, but the essence, in fact, is purely political. It is linked to the growing gap between the political class and the social classes, both the middle class and the generation of globalised youth.

It also includes those marginalised outside the “planet of Western Amman”. This is due to the inability of the “political functional structure”, in the words of Gabriel Almond, to absorb new inputs and variants in the form of political, economic and social demands, and new support forces that are different from conventional forces.

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Therefore, the outputs and mechanisms in accordance with which the government operates remain outdated and do not match or mesh with the nature of the inputs. This means that there is a major crisis of institutional and functional adaptation experienced by the political system in Jordan.

The good news is that the demands of the new protests do not reach the level of overthrowing the regime. The people are completely convinced that the Jordanian regime is legitimate. However, it is required to carry out a reform of the political process in a substantive and real manner, as well as to absorb the new changes.

The old games of avoiding this have reached a deadlock in the past few days by means of the gradual and ongoing rise in the level and nature of the protests.

This article first appeared in Arabic in The New Khalij on 5 June 2018.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.