Will there be an Israel-Iran confrontation in Syria?

Israel’s objection against Iran’s military presence in Syria has resurfaced after a brief period of media silence, which seems to have given the Russians an opportunity to reach a solution to this problem by reaching an understanding with their Iranian allies. The return of official threats, coupled with the return of Israeli air strikes against military targets in Syria, indicates two things: Israel’s disappointment with the result of Russian efforts to rein in Iran’s presence and the announcement of a new phase in Israel’s dealing with the problem.

The Israelis realise that Russia is busy now with the battle being waged against Idlib, the last stronghold for the Syrian opposition, but regardless of the battle’s outcome they now want to portray to the Russians that the victory of Bashar Al-Assad and his Iranian ally will not be at their expense. They are afraid that they will have to pay the price of this victory. According to the Syrian affairs specialist Eyal Ziser, several Western countries will help Al-Assad rebuild his country in the hope that he will remove the Iranians. These countries will pressure Israel to curb its operations inside Syria in order to preserve its stability. None of this serves Israel’s main strategic goal: to get rid of Iran’s military presence in Syria.

“Battles between wars” is the main notion of the next stage in the Israeli confrontation with the Iranian military presence in Syria. This refers to limited military operations that, according to the Director of the Institute for National Security Studies, Amos Yadlin, aims to “prevent Iran from building an advanced military force in Syria, Lebanon, and even Iraq, by ​​preventing its military advancement and hitting its advanced missile capabilities”.

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However, the challenge that Israel faces in applying this new-old strategy in Syria is a double challenge: the fear that this strategy will lead to a deterioration of its relations with the Russians and the fear of matters getting out of control and its deterioration into a major confrontation with the Iranians inside, and perhaps outside of Syria. In addition to this, there is Israeli concern with not being involved in the military conflict in Syria, which it claims to have stood idly by and that its intervention was limited to providing humanitarian and medical assistance to civilians living near its borders. This is despite reports in the foreign media about Israel providing weapons to some armed Syrian opposition groups.

In the coming stage, the Israelis are counting on two things in order to implement this strategy: First, Al-Assad’s need to solidify his rule, which could prevent him from sliding into a direct confrontation with Israel, and second, their expectation that he will continue his static policy in the Golan Heights, which was behind the long years of calm on the border.

Furthermore, the Russians need their efforts to reach a long-term political settlement to succeed because winning a war without achieving peace will make Russia’s achievement incomplete. In this context, the following question is raised: Could the next phase of the “battle within war” strategy increase the potential for the outbreak of a new confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel?

Despite the repeated claims that neither side intends to cause the outbreak of a new war, there are Israeli escalations against Iran and its allies, as well as careful preparations by the army in the context of the multi-year “Gideon Plan,” presented by Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot in 2015 and updated this year. The plan focuses on the role of the ground forces in any future military confrontation and the training and exercises these forces carry out simulating a new war against Hezbollah, all of which is not reassuring.

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After the relative calm that prevailed on the Gaza front, Israel’s attention today is focused on the northern front, especially on the repercussions of the potential battle over Idlib, the developments in the situation in Syria, and on the way the Russians will deal with the Iranian military presence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already declared that the next stage is to confront Iranian influence in Syria and the region.

Israeli-US harmony is increasingly evident in the position toward Iran’s military presence in Syria, with the announcement by officials in the Trump administration regarding a new American strategy in Syria and the extension of the presence of American forces there. Such an extension would last until the new goals are achieved, beginning with the removal of Iranian forces and affiliated militias from Syria.

Israel has been applying the strategy of “battles between wars” against Hezbollah since the July 2006 war, and its results are known and concrete. Since then, there has been a fragile calm on the border with Lebanon, but this strategy has not succeeded in curbing the party’s military growth and advancement. It also did not prevent them from enhancing its rocket arsenal. Therefore, it can be said that the Israeli noise is an attempt to attract the attention of the Russians and Americans to the importance of preserving the interests of Israel in the post-Assad victory phase.

This article was first published in Al-Araby Al-Jadeed in Arabic on 10 September 2018

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.