Is it Erdogan who has changed, or the international balance?

Principles and national interests wrestle each other in the world of politics, regardless of the country involved. Which takes precedence depends on the circumstances at the time. “We have no lasting friends, no lasting enemies, only lasting interests,” said former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

This reflects the pragmatism of the international “game of nations”. Politics is basically just a struggle for interests, say analysts, as interests are what are reconciled, not states.

There are many theories and strategies about international relations. Almost all conclude that the soft approach — diplomacy — is the most effective in promoting political interests; that it is necessary to rely on political realism and cooperation to promote the interests of each country by using economic, scientific, cultural and social power to achieve major national goals.

Moreover, the main interest of all countries is to preserve themselves, so the pursuit of power has become a political, economic and social necessity; strength leads to growth and prosperity. Thus, even friendly states are in permanent competition with each other, and allies can find themselves regarded as the “hidden enemy” if they overstep the mark.

That is why governments cannot let principles and morality guide them; defence against external threats, real and imagined, always takes priority. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once said that it is not in America’s interest to solve any problem in the world, but it is in its interest to pull the strings of the problem and move them according to the US national interest.

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I say this following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, after an estrangement which began with Saudi Arabia’s behind-the-scenes role, along with its ally the UAE, in the failed coup attempt against Erdogan on 15 July 2016. There was also an assassination attempt against the Turkish leader. The relationship worsened in 2017, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt imposed a siege on Qatar, due to alleged “support for terrorism”. Turkey and Qatar are close allies.

The murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul in 2018 plunged relations to rock bottom; Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman was said to be behind the murder. This was a major international scandal for Saudi Arabia, which was condemned by the UN and international human rights organisations, turning it into a pariah, a status which it is struggling to shrug off.

Bin Salman has spent billions trying to whitewash his global image with help from US public relations companies, with limited success. Khashoggi still haunts him, with US President Joe Biden replacing Bin Salman’s friend Donald Trump in the White House and vowing to bring the killers of the Washington Post journalist to justice.

The ill feeling between Bin Salman and Erdogan sits upon the bitter historical legacy of the Ottoman Empire and Saudi Arabia, as well as the ideological and doctrinal differences between the Kingdom and Turkey, as both compete for the leadership of the Islamic world. In the background, though, are the new global realities, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the creation of new and arguably strange international alliances. Now Turkey and Saudi Arabia find themselves facing internal and external problems that push them closer to each other in defence of their respective interests which, on this occasion, tend to overlap. Hence, any grievances are being put aside, at least temporarily.

Before travelling to the Kingdom, Erdogan was keen to close the Khashoggi file by transferring it to the Saudi judiciary. This is a major concession on his part; he had insisted that the killers be tried in Turkey. The CIA, remember, accused Bin Salman of ordering the journalist’s murder, so Erdogan has basically saved the Saudi prince from the metaphorical stick used by many Western leaders to beat him. There is no such relief for Khashoggi’s family and friends, though.

Before leaving for Riyadh, Erdogan said that his visit will open a new page in relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; that it expresses a common will to open a new chapter of cooperation as two countries with historical, cultural and humanitarian ties. He added that it is in their mutual interest to increase Turkey’s cooperation with Saudi Arabia in areas such as health, energy, food security, defence and finance.

There is understandable anger at Erdogan for conceding the Khashoggi issue from those who look at the matter on the basis of principles and morality. However, politicians do not look at things from this perspective; both are trumped by national interests.

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In this case it means Turkey’s economy in particular, which has been stagnant for some time. The Turkish lira has fallen in value for reasons too many to list here. Nevertheless, it is important to point out that Turkey has faced a fierce economic war from regional powers with Western support. There remains a semi-boycott of Turkish goods in Saudi Arabia, for example, so Ankara needs to agree trade deals with Riyadh so that the resultant cash flow can boost Turkey’s treasury. Erdogan stressed in his press statement after this week’s Eid prayer that relations between Ankara and Riyadh will rise to a special level across a number of sectors, and Saudi holidaymakers will boost Turkey’s struggling tourist industry.

Turkey is due to hold a presidential election next year, which Erdogan wants to win. He needs a popularity boost in the wake of the poor economic performance which has affected the livelihood of ordinary Turks who blame the policies of the ruling Justice and Development Party. The opposition is taking advantage of this to attack the government and Erdogan in an attempt to bring them down with the support of the international and regional powers with which Erdogan is trying to resolve his issues. His visit to Saudi Arabia and, before that, a visit to the UAE, as well as his warm welcome of the Israeli president, are all part of this process.

Of course, Bin Salman and Erdogan will be scratching each other’s back; you don’t get anything for nothing in international relations. That’s how the political game goes. Erdogan has pushed the Khashoggi case off Bin Salman’s shoulders, while the latter is at odds with Washington and needs Turkey as a reliable alternative security partner. Together they share many concerns about regional issues, including Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Hezbollah. As such, there is a lot of common ground between them which can be used to serve the interests of both. Erdogan can provide some regional security options for Saudi Arabia and perhaps help to reduce tension between Riyadh and Tehran, which has friendly relations with Ankara. He can also mediate to end the war in Yemen and get Bin Salman out of the quagmire in a respectable way that saves the de facto Saudi leader some face.

Churchill was right: there are no lasting friends or enemies, only lasting interests. Political analysis must focus on the latter above all else in the “game of nations”. Principles and morality, meanwhile, fall by the wayside. “Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose,” wrote Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr in 1849: the more things change, the more they stay the same. So is it Erdogan who has changed, or the international balance?

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.