Is Saudi Arabia-Israel normalisation close, or still a long way off?

In a move worthy of analysis, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced the appointment of a non-resident ambassador to the Palestinian Authority last week. He will also assume the position of Consul General in the occupied city of Jerusalem. The appointee is also the Ambassador to Jordan, and has been responsible for Saudi-Palestinian affairs from the embassy in Amman.

This step was preceded by reports that there were US efforts to bridge the gap between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and establish diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. Many US officials have visited the Kingdom recently; the national security advisor has been there three times and Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been there too.

“I will say that we’ve had productive conversations, there is a number of issues that we have discussed, both with the Israeli government and with the Saudi government,” explained State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. “Those conversations continue. I expect there will be more happening in the coming weeks.”

The Israeli foreign ministry was content to refer to a statement by Foreign Minister Eli Cohen on this issue. Normalisation of ties with Saudi Arabia, said Cohen, is just a “matter of time.” The Saudis, meanwhile, neither confirmed nor denied the US and Israeli statements, but pointed out that the Kingdom adheres to the decisions of the Arab League regarding the Palestinian cause and the Arab Peace Initiative proposed by King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz which was endorsed at the league’s 2002 Beirut Summit. Nevertheless, Riyadh allowed Israeli civilian aircraft to use Saudi airspace last year, and US President Joe Biden flew to Riyadh directly from Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport. It also distanced itself from criticism of the normalisation of ties between some other Arab countries and the occupation state. Some have said that Bahrain, for example, did not normalise relations without the Kingdom’s approval because its policies are completely aligned with those of Riyadh. Furthermore, the US and Israel cannot talk publicly about holding talks on this issue without Riyadh’s consent. So, what are the implications of appointing a non-resident Saudi ambassador to the Palestinian Authority?

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This can be read as confirmation that unlimited Saudi support for the Palestinian people will continue, and it can also carry multi-directional messages, including a direct message to Biden that if he wants Saudi normalisation with Israel to boost his chances of winning a second term in office, he must offer the Palestinians something equal to this. A message is also sent to the Israeli prime minister to end his current policies against the Palestinians, and to stop building illegal settlements, as he is also looking for normalisation as an achievement that will save him from the tense political situation engulfing his far-right government. Most important of all, it is a message to the whole world that the UN General Assembly resolution adopted in 2012 to recognise the State of Palestine should be implemented, and that the time has come to recognise it as a full-fledged member of the UN. The appointment of a Saudi ambassador to the Palestinian Authority is thus a red line that Riyadh has placed before the US and Israel as an affirmation of Saudi Arabia’s recognition of the State of Palestine, and an affirmation of the status of Jerusalem by the decision to “open” its consulate there. The Israelis, of course, won’t allow a physical consulate to be opened without diplomatic relations being established first. The Saudi move is thus symbolic and a statement of intent.

The Kingdom has also set limits for itself and other Arab states that say no to normalisation with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, so how can it abandon these limits? Saudi Arabia knows very well that its status among Muslims as the Custodian of the Two Sacred Mosques is the most important soft power it possesses, and it cannot forget the status of Jerusalem as the first direction of prayer for Prophet Muhammad and the early Muslims. Moreover, the decision-maker in Riyadh is aware that Israel not only poses a threat to Palestine, but also to the security of every Arab state. As such, normalisation without accepting the conditions of the Arab Peace Initiative is, surely, still a long way off.

Those who think normalisation is close to happening interpret the Saudi decision to appoint an ambassador to Palestine differently. They follow the leaked details of the ongoing US-Saudi talks on normalisation, especially the statements by spokesman Miller at the State Department and Israeli Minister Cohen, who said explicitly on 13 August that the Saudi appointment of an ambassador to Palestine and a consul in Jerusalem sends a message to the Palestinians that the Saudi leadership will not forget Palestine in the US-Saudi normalisation talks. The leaks note that the Kingdom is preoccupied with what it will get in exchange for normalisation, including an improvement in the economic conditions of the Palestinians; a stop to settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank; approval for the export of advanced US weapons to Riyadh; and a new security agreement between Riyadh and Washington, with decisive US support in the event of an attack on the Kingdom. It will also include permission for a civilian nuclear power plant and uranium enrichment on Saudi soil. On this last point, US media confirm that it is on the negotiating table when they say that the leader of the opposition in Israel has warned of a nuclear arms race in the region if the Benjamin Netanyahu government reaches a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia which does not insist that uranium will not be enriched in the Kingdom. 

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It seems clear that these leaks are dangerous, not least because they say that normalisation is within reach and is only a matter of time, and that what is happening now are simply negotiations over the price to be paid. The window for a normalisation deal will close within the next nine months or so, because the US presidential election is next year, and Biden is keen to get the deal signed before then. The appointment of a Saudi ambassador to Palestine and a consulate in Jerusalem is thus a message to the Palestinians that normalisation will happen, but the Kingdom hasn’t forgotten them. The proof is a strengthened diplomatic presence and, if all of this actually happens, a change of many geopolitical and political factors in the region. 

In the midst of this activity, it can be said quite frankly that the Palestinian issue is no longer a central issue for Arab states, and that some Arab countries find it a hindrance when it comes to their own national interests. This is why we’ve seen Morocco, the UAE, Sudan and Bahrain, which all backed the Arab Peace Initiative, bypassing its terms and normalising relations with Israel. Despite this, though, normalisation is generally rejected by the Arab people, no matter where they live. That is a fact that cannot be changed or overlooked.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Quds Al-Arabi on 21 August 2023

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.