Netanyahu’s dilemma is the decline of deterrence and the exposure of the occupation

Israel has always prided itself on its ability to wage sudden, short wars against Arab states and defeat them without the need to fight within the territories it has occupied since the 1948 Nakba and the June 1967 Naksa. It invaded Lebanon to fight, and has fought six wars in Gaza while suppressing the Palestinians in occupied Jerusalem and the West Bank without paying too high a price, while enjoying the sympathy and support of the West, which has its own double standards when it comes to war crimes and genocide.

However, Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October last year upended those myths, changed the matrix, and proved that the Israeli occupation forces boast about two lies that were exposed by the Palestinian resistance groups: that the Israeli army is invincible, and that it is the most moral army in the world. The past nine months have shown that it is indeed beatable and is not trained to wage war against well-prepared and trained irregular forces. And that its sense of morality is non-existent.

No regular army has ever won a war which is unbalanced in this way.

Look at the US wars in Afghanistan against the Taliban, in Iraq and Syria against Al-Qaeda and Daesh, and before that against the Viet Cong in Vietnam. And look at the Israeli war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Today, the occupation state is facing a number of setbacks in the tenth month of its genocidal war against the Palestinians in Gaza. The International Court of Justice, the highest court in the world, has issued a historic 140-page advisory opinion describing the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza since 1967 as unlawful and illegal. The opinion affirmed the right of the Palestinians to self-determination and the need to evacuate the illegal Israeli settlements across the occupied territories. The ICJ also accused Israel of committing war crimes.

The Palestinian presidency was quick to describe the World Court’s opinion as “a victory for justice and a rejection of the occupation and the Knesset’s decision (which rejected by an overwhelming majority, except by the Arab representatives, the establishment of a Palestinian state, undermining the mirage and illusion of the 1993 Oslo Accords) and the American policies that support Israel in its occupation and reject the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

The Palestinian delegation to the ICJ confirmed that, after the issuance of the opinion, they will go to the UN General Assembly as requested by the court to take the necessary measures. The Palestinian Authority, Hamas and the other Palestinian factions, and the Arab and Islamic countries welcomed the ICJ opinion, with Palestinian figures calling for action and the imposition of sanctions on Israel.

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All of this pushed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into another crisis. He responded with his usual bluster and criticised the court’s opinion: “No false decision in The Hague will distort this historical truth, just as the legality of Israeli settlement in all the territories of our homeland cannot be contested.” The neo-fascists in his extreme far-right coalition government joined him in expounding their ready-made, easily debunked allegations against the ICJ, accusing the court of anti-Semitism and hatred of Israel. The ICJ, of course, told Israel earlier this year to prevent genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza as part of its initial judgement on the genocide lawsuit submitted last December by the South African government.

Although the latest ICJ decision is advisory and non-binding, the laws upon which it is based are binding.

It is thus a painful blow to the Zionist occupation state and its supporters, and those who have normalised relations with it, as well as those who have sought to justify and support its occupation and genocidal war against the Palestinians.

It is clear that the illegitimate Knesset decision to reject the establishment of a Palestinian state and the decision of the ICJ puts the US in an awkward position, as both houses of Congress are this week welcoming the war criminal Netanyahu to deliver a speech and meet President Joe Biden, who boasts that he is a proud Zionist. The same Netanyahu is also waiting on the International Criminal Court to issue a warrant for his arrest on charges of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity. All of this also embarrasses the Arabs who have normalised relations with the apartheid state on the pretext that their rapprochement is contributing to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

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The Zionists have essentially revealed their intentions — no state of Palestine between the river and the sea, and the ethnic cleansing of the remaining Palestinians in occupied Palestine — and buried forever the illusions sold by the Oslo Accords.

The Arab countries, especially those with normalised relations, must denounce the Knesset’s decision as it violates international law and Security Council resolutions. So too must Washington, because successive administrations have pushed the two-state solution ever since Bill Clinton was in the White House.

A further Israeli setback is the plurality and unification of resistance and support fronts in the face of the brutality of the Zionist aggression in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and the Golan Heights, as well as the expansion of the confrontation to Yemen and the Red and Mediterranean Seas. The Houthis succeeded in hitting Tel Aviv for the first time, by striking a target just 100 metres from the US Embassy building. The Iranian-made Yaffa drone travelled 2,000 km from Yemen, exposing the weakness of Israel’s air defence systems. The de facto government of Yemen vowed to carry out more strikes as long as the Zionist occupation and war continue.

Netanyahu’s miscalculations, the exposure of the reality of its brutal military occupation and the loss of its deterrence factor have all put pressure on the Zionist settler-colonial state and its allies to grant the Palestinians their legitimate rights and end the occupation of their land. The Palestinians have international law and justice on their side. They must prevail over the lawlessness and contempt displayed so clearly by Israel and its supporters.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Quds Al-Arabi on 21 July 2024

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.