Breaches do not lead to victories

The balance of power globally, regionally and in Palestine (the axis of Resistance) was tilted against the Zionist entity, specifically against the policies of Netanyahu who, along with his war council, led the continuation of the aggressive genocide in the Gaza Strip. Of course, we must mention the military support he received from the US and Europe, and the political cover, which allowed him to challenge the world by continuing the genocidal war and the war of aggression in the Gaza Strip. This went against the laws governing the balance of military and political powers, mainly because of America’s double positions, or hypocrisy, and its weakness in the face of the Zionist bias.

However, despite that, the general trend was heading, albeit slowly and stubbornly, towards inflicting defeat on Netanyahu and his policies. The resistance forces in Iraq, the participation from Yemen and the support from Iran, were heading towards translating Netanyahu’s defeat into a victory for the Resistance in Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq.

The massacre that resulted from the breach that caused the pager explosions (4,000 wounded and 10 martyrs) in the ranks of Hezbollah; then the next day the explosion of wireless devices, followed by the operations, two days later, killing a significant number of Radwan leaders, have all caused something resembling a reversal, even if on the external or psychological level, in the military balance of power due to these severe blows dealt to Hezbollah.

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Of course, it is impossible not to include these blows in the balance of political and military power, which caused some to consider them “decisive” blows, and they began to consider the war to be decided, or as some of those in Netanyahu’s ranks indicated, that it opened the door to continue the attack. This took us to 23 September, 2024, when air attacks were launched on southern Lebanon, the Beqaa and the Baalbek region, resulting in about 500 martyrs and 1600 wounded, indicating the beginning of a genocidal war, as was the case in the first days of the genocidal war on the Gaza Strip in terms of the number of martyrs and wounded in a single day.

This means that the Zionist decision is heading towards war, and it wants to make it a comprehensive war against Hezbollah, as it is against the Resistance in the Gaza Strip. However, Hezbollah’s responses that day and the following day, directed at Haifa, confirmed that militarily, Hezbollah maintained its effectiveness and capabilities, even after all those strikes. This means we cannot say that the blows were decisive, or that Hezbollah is in a position where it cannot engage in a comprehensive war.

Hence, the balance of power that was formed throughout the eleven months globally, regionally and on the Palestinian and Lebanese level (the axis of Resistance), is still as it was. Hezbollah has begun to confirm, through its direct responses, that it has overcome the breach and the resulting losses, or that it is on its way to achieving this, as quickly as possible.

Thus, Netanyahu, and the thoughts in his head and the head of the Zionist leadership, has made a mistake in calculations when it comes to waging a comprehensive war, as it is obvious that breaches are painful, but they do not win a war.

Wars are not won by fools, nor are they won by miscalculations of the balance of power. This will be the fate of the war led by Netanyahu against Hezbollah, as well as against the Resistance and its leadership in the Gaza Strip, the axis of Resistance, and the Arab, Islamic and international public opinion, along with the weakness that the US is suffering from.

This article appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 25 September, 2024.

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