What does Netanyahu mean when talking about changing the strategic reality of the Middle East?

When Benjamin Netanyahu talks about “changing the strategic reality in the Middle East”, he is referring to political and military goals related to strengthening Israel’s regional position and changing the balance of power in the region to make it in Israel’s favour. Netanyahu seeks to change the strategic reality in a way that makes it more secure and stable for Israel as it faces multiple threats, whether from Palestinian Resistance movements, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran or even geopolitical shifts in the region. The following are the most important points that Netanyahu may mean when he refers to changing the strategic reality in the Middle East:

Eliminating the Palestinian Resistance movements

Eliminating the threat of Hamas and Islamic Jihad: Netanyahu believes that changing the strategic reality begins with eliminating the military threats facing Israel from Gaza and the West Bank. Repeating military operations in Gaza and the Palestinian Territories aims to limit the capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, by destroying their military infrastructure and drying up their sources of support.

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Imposing political solutions that suit Israel: Netanyahu also seeks to impose political conditions that weaken or eliminate the Palestinian State project or make it weak and demilitarised, giving Israel the freedom for strategic movement in the Palestinian Territories.

Controlling Iranian influence in the region

Limiting Iranian expansion: for Netanyahu, changing the strategic reality in the Middle East means curbing Iranian influence in neighbouring countries such as Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Iran is considered the greatest strategic threat to Israel through its support for Hezbollah and Palestinian Resistance movements, as well as through its nuclear ambitions.

Normalising Arab-Israeli relations to confront Iran: Netanyahu seeks to build regional alliances with Arab countries, especially the Gulf States, to confront Iran. Normalisation with countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia is part of Israel’s strategy to change the regional reality and create an axis against Iran.

Promoting normalisation with Arab countries 

Expanding the scope of the Abraham Accords: Changing the strategic reality includes continuing work on the Abraham Accords to expand the scope of normalisation with Arab countries. Israel aims to improve its relations with new Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, to form a strategic alliance against regional powers that oppose Israel, such as Iran and Hezbollah.

Regionally isolating the Palestinian Resistance: By normalising relations with Arab countries, Israel seeks to diplomatically isolate the Palestinian Resistance movements and to make them less influential in the regional equation, while enhancing its regional legitimacy.

Acting against the Iranian nuclear program

Preventing Iran from possessing nuclear weapons: Changing the strategic reality for Netanyahu also includes taking political or military measures to prevent Iran from reaching a military nuclear capability. This may include continued international pressure or even military operations, if necessary, with the aim of destroying the Iranian nuclear program.

Coordination with the US and its allies: Israel relies on cooperation with the US in this context and seeks to build a greater international coalition to exert pressure on Iran. Achieving this goal is a major step in changing the strategic reality in the region in Israel’s favour.

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Ensuring Israeli military superiority

Technological and military superiority: By constantly working to develop its military capabilities, Israel seeks to ensure that it is the dominant military power in the Middle East. Military superiority enables Israel to confront any potential threats from hostile states or factions.

Maintaining American support: Israel relies heavily on US military and economic support. Continuing to receive this support enables Israel to maintain its superiority in the region, which is an important element in achieving long-term strategic change.

Reshaping borders and regional dominance

Reducing border threats: Changing the strategic reality may include redrawing the borders or securing them in a way that prevents direct threats to Israel, whether from Gaza, Lebanon or Syria. Control of the Golan Heights and increasing the military presence on the borders with Lebanon and Syria, is part of Netanyahu’s strategy to enhance the security situation.

Control over areas of the West Bank: The quest to annex major Israeli settlements in the West Bank may be part of changing the strategic reality. Control of these areas gives Israel strategic influence in managing the conflict with the Palestinians and weakens the possibility of establishing a sovereign Palestinian State.

Geopolitical shifts in the region

Exploiting internal divisions in the Arab world: Netanyahu seeks to exploit internal divisions and conflicts in Arab countries, whether in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Sudan or Somalia, to ensure that these countries will not be able to pose a strategic threat to Israel in the near future.

Using regional conflicts to Israel’s advantage: Israel may take advantage of regional conflicts such as the war in Syria or Yemen to secure its borders or strengthen its alliances with regional powers against a common enemy, such as Iran. 

Weakening non-governmental armed organisations

Targeting Hezbollah and Hamas: Changing the strategic reality also includes weakening non-governmental armed organisations that pose a direct threat to Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza are at the top of the list of enemies that Israel seeks to reduce their military and political capabilities.

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Preventive attacks and assassinations: Israel relies on assassination tactics and preventive attacks against the military leaders of these organisations to reduce their capabilities and create a deterrent balance on the northern and southern fronts.

Deterrence and avoidance of long-term wars

Strategic deterrence: Netanyahu’s goal is to build strong deterrent capabilities that prevent Israel’s enemies from attempting to launch attacks on its territory. Through military superiority and preventive operations, Israel seeks to avoid engaging in long-term wars that can be costly and lead to great losses.

Changing the rules of engagement: Using military operations and regional interventions, Israel seeks to redefine the rules of engagement with its enemies, allowing it to deal painful blows without escalating to a full-scale war.

Restructuring international alliances

Strengthening relations with global powers: Netanyahu seeks to strengthen Israel’s relations with major global powers such as the US and Russia, as well as expanding economic and political relations with emerging powers such as China and India. This alliance with major global powers gives Israel global strategic influence.

In conclusion, when Netanyahu talks about “changing the strategic reality in the Middle East,” he seeks to secure Israel’s position as a dominant regional power by weakening its enemies, whether they are countries such as Iran or armed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. He also aims to strengthen regional and international alliances, normalise relations with Arab countries and ensure Israel’s military superiority for decades to come. Will he succeed in doing so, given the difficulties facing Israel and the obstacles facing the American project to which it belongs?

This article appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 3 October, 2024.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.