Inside Dakhla, the potential trade and tourist hub between the Sahara and the Atlantic

Strolling through the centre of the city of Dakhla in southern Morocco — or the disputed territory of the Western Sahara, depending on where you stand on the matter — I was pleasantly surprised at the wild and cool breeze sweeping across the tiny peninsula. I expected that this city so far south where the desert meets the sea would have the same stifling air and heat. It was to be the first of many misconceptions I had.

The first impression upon driving through Dakhla is that of a rundown, backwater struggling to keep up with Morocco’s economic activity. Tourism has hardly any impact the city, unlike other popular tourist centres further north. It is not difficult to arrive at such an impression when exploring Dakhla by car and foot, particularly judging by the swept-up dirt and mounds of rubble lining the numerous building plots marked out all along the small peninsula.

It was not long, however, before I was alerted to the fact that those plots and the rubble were none other than the foundations for plans much grander than anticipated. Each space — numbering hundreds of square feet with the promise of more floor space built on storeys above — represented a new opportunity for residential, commercial and economic growth in an area largely untouched by investors until now.

According to a source with close connections in the Moroccan military who visited the city for the primary purpose of seeking out opportunities for property development, the Moroccan government intends Dakhla to become the new hub for international investment, commercial activity and export markets.

The next Dubai, Manhattan or Monaco will apparently not be in the West or even the Gulf, but on the windswept coastline of the Sahara and the Atlantic.

With its strategic location on the Atlantic coast between West Africa and Europe, the Moroccan government hopes that Dakhla will become a significant trading hub, particularly in terms of imports and exports.

Out of the approximately $2.5 billion that Rabat has allocated to Dakhla, around half has gone towards the renovation and development of Dakhla Atlantic Port, a key part of Morocco’s National Ports Strategy which aims to see ports as economic focal points that contribute not only to regional, but also global trade. By connecting trade between the West African states to Europe and across the Atlantic, Dakhla is planned to boost Morocco’s role in global trade and earn it a place amongst the world’s top port destinations.

Part of the port’s intake will also be via land access, with Morocco reportedly aiming to establish a corridor through neighbouring Mauritania in order to connect the Sahel countries to the Dakhla Atlantic Port. Trucks will transport goods to this new gateway for trade, which is planned for completion by 2030.

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One potential obstacle to Morocco’s exploitation of Dakhla and the Western Sahara is the security of the disputed region and the risk of instability. As it stands, Morocco’s state and security forces maintain absolute control of the territory and the tiny peninsula of Dakhla.

Checkpoints manned by the police and royal gendarmerie are located throughout the territory, backed up by the army’s use of the old Spanish fortress by the sea. Further into the Sahara region, Moroccan armed forces maintain their “Moroccan wall” to keep out members of the Sahrawi independence movement, with a deadly buffer zone of landmines serving as a deterrent to incursions. Practically-speaking, therefore, Dakhla and the Western Sahara are under the firm control of Morocco.

Unless action is taken by a sympathetic state actor such as Algeria in support of Sahrawi independence, Rabat’s control of the territory looks guaranteed.

Despite the Moroccan authorities’ success in holding on to Dakhla and its economic projects in the territory, though, it has not had as much success in the political and diplomatic realm until now. Since 1963, the UN has recognised the Western Sahara simply as a non-self-governing territory, and that status has remained unchanged over the decades of Spanish withdrawal, joint Moroccan-Mauritanian administration, Sahrawi separatist efforts, Polisario Front uprising and Moroccan rule.

Rabat’s pursuit of a political resolution has been persistent but unfruitful, with few notable breakthroughs achieved since the 1991 UN-mediated agreement which established a ceasefire and a UN buffer zone in the territory. The Moroccan government has objected repeatedly to a referendum vote on Sahrawi independence, and the Polisario Front refused a proposal in 2007 by King Mohammed VI for broader autonomy for the Western Sahara, insisting instead on full self-determination.

The failure to reach a resolution and Morocco’s attempt to open a road in the buffer zone near the Mauritanian border caused the 30-year ceasefire to collapse in 2020, with the continuation of a low-intensity conflict between the Polisario Front and government forces. In December 2020, a drastic new development shook the status quo in the Western Sahara when the US administration of then President Donald Trump announced Washington’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco’s normalisation of ties with Israel. Almost three years after that, Israel also announced its recognition of Moroccan sovereignty, finalising the deal.

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This came at a cost, of course, not only in anger across much of the Arab and Muslim world over normalisation with Israel, but also in risking a political resolution with the Sahrawi independence movement — and further straining ties with its supporter Algeria — by moving ahead with Morocco’s plans for Western Sahara.

As far as the regime in Rabat is concerned, it was worth it. Shaking up the status quo in the short term has seemingly secured greater diplomatic strength and leverage in the long term. Since those developments took place, more states and in particular Western nations have recognised Moroccan sovereignty, with Spain having done so in 2022, followed by France and Finland this year.

After decades of a political stalemate on the issue on its domestic front, Morocco is finally achieving a diplomatic breakthrough on its international and foreign policy front, managing to convince Western and European states — along with their allies — of the practicality of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.

The economic opportunities presented by the Dakhla Atlantic Port and other trade projects are attractive for international investors, and the authorities’ firm grasp on security in the territory guarantees protection and low risk to foreign investments, diplomatic missions and tourists. Luxury hotels and resorts, many of them backed by investment from developers in the Gulf states and European capitals, have been developed in Dakhla, almost ready for the expected increase in tourists by 2030 and beyond.

For Morocco and those involved in global trade and business, Dakhla and the wider Western Sahara is a land of opportunity. After decades of insecurity and underdevelopment, it looks to open up to the world and greater possibilities for its future.

This is all controversial, of course, and despite further international recognition, the Western Saharan issue is far from resolved. It is the Moroccan government’s hopes, though, that security and economic development will eventually result in political stability, not an easy task for any state looking to cement its rule over disputed territory.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.