Turkiye’s strategic shift: Why BRICS membership matters for the world’s 19th largest economy

Turkiye’s potential BRICS membership is an intriguing move that signals Ankara’s strategic intent to diversify its international alliances beyond its traditional affiliations, primarily NATO and the EU. This development is not only about enhancing trade or economic opportunities but also reflects Turkiye’s ambitions to reposition itself as a more influential player in global governance. In this analysis, we will explore why Turkiye is considering BRICS membership, the economic and geopolitical implications and the factors driving this shift, all while highlighting its current position as a NATO member.

Economic diversification and benefits

Turkiye’s economy is one of the largest in the Middle East and ranks as the world’s 19th largest economy, with a GDP of approximately $906 billion in 2023. While Turkiye has long been integrated into Western economic structures like NATO and the EU Customs Union, the allure of joining BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) lies in the substantial economic benefits it offers:

Access to emerging markets: BRICS countries collectively account for around 31.5 per cent of global GDP, surpassing the G7’s share of 30.7 per cent. Turkiye’s alignment with BRICS would provide access to a vast economic bloc that encompasses some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, including China and India, which are both projected to continue their growth trajectories in the coming years.

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Trade and investment opportunities: Turkiye’s trade with BRICS countries has been on the rise, reaching around $120 billion in 2023. China alone is one of Turkiye’s largest trading partners, with bilateral trade standing at $38 billion. By joining BRICS, Turkiye could secure more favourable trade terms, diversify its export markets and attract investments from these rapidly growing economies.

Investment in infrastructure: Membership could also facilitate Turkish access to BRICS institutions like the New Development Bank (NDB), which finances infrastructure and sustainable development projects. With Turkiye’s ambitious plans for infrastructure expansion, such as the Kanal Istanbul project and the modernisation of its energy sector, BRICS membership could unlock new financing avenues and technical expertise.

Geopolitical repositioning: Balancing NATO and the West

Turkiye has been a member of NATO since 1952, and this alliance has traditionally formed the backbone of its defence and foreign policy. However, recent years have seen strains in Turkiye’s relationship with its Western allies:

Tensions with the EU and the United States: Turkiye’s long-standing bid for EU membership has stalled, and the relationship has often been marred by disagreements over human rights, Cyprus, and Ankara’s military interventions in Syria. Additionally, Turkiye’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system strained its ties with the US, leading to sanctions and Turkiye’s removal from the F-35 fighter jet program.

A strategic pivot toward multipolarity: Turkiye’s interest in BRICS represents a pivot toward a more multipolar foreign policy. By aligning itself with BRICS, Turkiye seeks to reduce its dependence on Western alliances, signalling that it is open to other partnerships that better align with its regional interests and global ambitions.

Energy security considerations: With BRICS, Turkiye can also deepen energy ties with Russia and China, both of which play critical roles in its energy supply. Turkiye’s strategic location as a transit hub for energy between Asia and Europe makes it an essential player in the energy sector. By joining BRICS, Turkiye could strengthen its cooperation with these energy giants, securing favourable deals and partnerships for its growing energy needs.

Turkiye’s role in global governance

By considering BRICS membership, Turkiye also aims to amplify its influence on global governance structures:

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Greater voice in multilateral platforms: BRICS has been advocating for a more inclusive global governance model that reflects the growing influence of emerging economies. For Turkiye, joining BRICS would mean participating in a bloc that is pushing for reforming institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Turkiye could leverage this platform to advocate for its own regional interests, such as stability in the Middle East and Central Asia.

Building a diplomatic bridge: Turkiye’s participation in both NATO and BRICS could position it as a diplomatic bridge between East and West. This dual alignment allows Turkiye to mediate and influence negotiations between different power centres, enhancing its strategic value globally. For example, Turkiye’s efforts in brokering deals, like the grain export agreement between Russia and Ukraine, showcase its ability to play a mediating role.

Why BRICS, while being a NATO Member?

While Turkiye’s NATO membership provides military security guarantees, its strategic and economic interests extend beyond the Western alliance. Several reasons illustrate why Turkiye is considering this move, despite being a NATO member:

Increasing autonomy and strategic flexibility: Turkiye’s pivot to BRICS allows it to exercise greater autonomy in its foreign policy decisions. As global power dynamics shift and the influence of Western powers is increasingly challenged by rising powers like China, Turkiye sees an opportunity to diversify its partnerships and reduce dependence on NATO and the EU.

Non-western alternatives: The US and EU have criticised Turkiye for its human rights record, its actions in Syria and its purchase of Russian defence systems. By joining BRICS, Turkiye signals that it has alternative partners who do not impose the same level of political or economic scrutiny.

Military-Industrial cooperation: NATO membership has constrained Turkiye’s military-industrial ambitions, as seen with the US imposing restrictions following Turkiye’s acquisition of the S-400 system from Russia. BRICS could provide an alternative platform for military cooperation, especially with Russia, China and India, allowing Turkiye to develop and expand its defence industry without facing Western limitations.

Challenges and risks for Turkiye

Despite the potential benefits, Turkiye’s bid to join BRICS is not without risks:

Navigating conflicting alliances: Balancing its commitments to NATO and a growing relationship with BRICS will be a diplomatic challenge for Turkiye. NATO may perceive Turkiye’s deepening ties with BRICS, especially with Russia and China, as a threat to alliance unity.

Economic and political trade-offs: While BRICS membership may offer economic opportunities, Turkiye risks alienating its Western allies, who remain significant trading partners and sources of foreign direct investment. The EU accounts for around 40 per cent of Turkiye’s exports, and any major shift toward BRICS could complicate its economic relations with Europe.

Institutional limitations within BRICS: BRICS remains an informal group without the same level of institutional structure as NATO or the EU. The group’s ability to act cohesively on global challenges varies, and Turkiye may find it challenging to extract tangible benefits if BRICS does not evolve into a more structured and proactive entity.

Turkiye’s potential BRICS membership reflects a desire for diversification and increased influence on the global stage. While it continues to rely on NATO for its security needs, Ankara’s engagement with BRICS is a strategic attempt to reduce dependence on Western allies and explore non-Western economic and political opportunities. Balancing these alliances will be crucial for Turkiye, as it navigates the complex dynamics of a rapidly shifting global order.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.