Will Netanyahu stop the war after the ‘big day’?

The powerful and decision-making individuals in the Arab and Muslim countries await the result of the “big day”, i.e., the day of the American presidential elections on 5 November. Some are eager for Republican Party candidate, Donald Trump, to be the new president, while others hope that Democratic Party candidate, Kamala Harris, will be the next desired president, who, with her (unlikely) victory, will become the first woman to assume the presidency in the history of the US.

Benjamin Netanyahu is the most prominent of those eager and working for the victory of his ally, Trump. Wasn’t Trump the one who openly annexed Jerusalem to the Zionist entity and recognised it as its capital? Wasn’t he the one who announced his support for annexing the occupied Syrian Golan to the occupying state? Wasn’t he the one who called on Benjamin Netanyahu, after Al-Aqsa Flood, to strike Iran in retaliation for its support of Hamas in its fierce resistance to the occupying entity?

The majority of those who hope for Harris to win believe that she is less enthusiastic than Trump in her support for Israel, is more willing to reach a settlement on the Arab-Israeli conflict, and less biased towards Netanyahu and his ruling coalition. Is there actually a chance for any type of settlement after the “big day”?

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The answer is no, as long as Netanyahu is in power; and no, as long as the deep state in the US considers Israel its most effective base for defending its interests and for reaching understandings with its allies in West Asia, extending from the shores of the Mediterranean in the south to the shores of the Caspian Sea in the north. The answer is also “no” as long as the US remains dominant in the current international system, even if it is doomed to decline and diminish after the political and economic rise of China and the strengthening of its alliance with Russia. What about the supporters of Resistance against Israel in the Arab world? They do not expect a positive outcome or change in the US regarding the Palestinian issue, whether Trump or Harris becomes president, as long as the decision regarding the Palestinian issue is monopolised by the deep state in Washington, on the one hand, and on the other hand, due to the measures, facts and considerations, the most prominent seven of which are:

First, the elected US president cannot assume their powers before the term of the current president, Joe Biden, ends on 20 January, 2025. Moreover, the new president needs a few weeks, perhaps more, to be able, with his ruling team, to grasp the political, economic, social and security reality of the country, as well as the domestic needs and foreign challenges it faces, which prevents them from making decisive decisions during this initial period.

Second, Netanyahu had publicly confirmed that he is against a ceasefire in Gaza and in Lebanon, before ensuring Israel’s goals are achieved. It seems clear that what he aims to achieve in this regard is to “eliminate” Hamas and all the Resistance factions allied with it, and to make the Gaza Strip a wasteland, i.e., uninhabitable, and to displace the population or radically reduce their number through killing, starvation and disease. He also aims to destroy Hezbollah (i.e., the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon) in terms of leadership and organisation, strike its popular base, especially among the Shias, displace its individuals and groups to the four corners of the country, and to provoke sedition and clashes between them and the residents of the areas to which they were displaced.

Third, Netanyahu clearly received a green light from the Biden administration to try to “end” Hezbollah, and thus attack Lebanon to dismantle it as a state and a people with the aim of preventing Hezbollah from remaining and shouldering the burdens of its escalating resistance against the Zionist entity. Netanyahu believes that the continued US green light in his favour is conditional on the continuation of his war in Gaza, as in Lebanon, whether Trump or Harris wins the presidency.

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Fourth, Netanyahu feels that stopping the war in Gaza and Lebanon increases the existential threat to his political life, as well as to the Zionist entity, since stopping the war will subsequently lead to the fall of his government and he will be subject to trial, once again, for committing crimes while in power. This will then lead to his imprisonment and the end of his political life. He and many others on the racist far-right also feel that stopping the war means practically giving Iran more time to strengthen itself politically, economically and militarily, leading to its possession of a nuclear weapon that would tip the balance of power in the region in its favour.

Fifth, it has become clear that Hezbollah was able to restore its leadership in record time after the loss of its historical leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and a group of its best political and military leaders. This motivated it to quickly regain leadership and control, as evidenced by its success in escalating its fierce resistance to the Israeli enemy and preventing the enemy’s repeated and desperate attempts to occupy some of the frontline villages on the border between Lebanon and Occupied Palestine, not to mention its success in expanding the circle of its confrontation with the enemy. So much so that it managed to fire its missiles and drones and reach the city of Haifa and its industrial surroundings, and the city of Tel Aviv and its surroundings, as well. All this prompted Netanyahu to insist on the need to continue the war in order to avoid building pressures on him, internally and externally, to reach a settlement, which is not in his interest, to cease fire and exchange prisoners with the Hamas movement.

Sixth, the success of Hamas and its allies in the Gaza Strip in preventing the Israeli enemy from imposing its control and achieving its declared goals, despite the fact that it and its people have suffered the loss of more than 43,000 martyrs and 100,000 wounded, has strengthened the demand of the Israeli prisoners’ families and their supporters for reaching a ceasefire agreement to facilitate the exchange of prisoners. It is known that Netanyahu’s approval of the ceasefire is enough to push the Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich to resign, leading to the fall of the government.

Seventh, it is no secret to many who follow Netanyahu’s movement politically and in the field that his genocidal war in Gaza and Lebanon is just one link in the chain of his plan aimed at establishing a “new Middle East”, with the support of the US. In the long-run, this serves the biblical delusions of the extremist Zionists to expand the State of Israel to become an area extending from the Euphrates River in Syria and Iraq to the Nile River in Egypt. Therefore, stopping the war, in Netanyahu’s opinion, would be an early setback for his fellow fascist Zionist extremists.

I have mentioned all these facts, considerations and thoughts to reach a logical conclusion, which is that Netanyahu and his fellow Zionist extremists are not on the verge of stopping the war they waged on us all, regardless of who the next US president is after “the big day” on Tuesday. As long as the war of the biblical Zionist extremists continues against us, the only way to confront and thwart is through Resistance. Resistance is our choice, approach and the decision until victory is achieved.

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This article first appeared in Arabic in Al Quds on 3 November, 2024.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.