Israelis are pessimistic after one year of war in Gaza

Israeli assessments after one year of the occupation state’s war against the Palestinians in Gaza, and whether it has succeeded or failed in its objectives, have varied. It is admitted that Israel has seen some strategic confusion and a sign of crisis concerning its standing with international public opinion. It has also witnessed severe, unprecedented, tensions with the United States; a radical deterioration in its economy; fluctuations in the mood within Israel itself; and a return of deep polarisation between its political parties.

The fact that the war is ongoing after more than a year is reason enough for more pessimism regarding its outcomes as far as Israelis are concerned. Hostages are still being held in Gaza, and the Israeli government’s lack of interest in freeing them still casts a long shadow. This alone increases the legitimacy of the debate over the war, where it’s heading and whether it should stop or not, stirring more discussions of failures that have been piling up since October last year.

As the war continues, international isolation of the occupation regime increases because of the livestreamed images of killing and destruction in Gaza. This has led to falling support for the war, more depression and general despair, and a strong belief that it is ineffective. A deep chasm has opened up in Israeli society over what is being seen now as a futile war with an extremely high international and economic cost. More Israelis now believe that it is not possible to make real progress in Gaza after the war.

Morale in Israel is low.

The very survival of Hamas is the movement’s success. It will have a major say in what happens in post-war Gaza, and will be boosted by the return of thousands of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, who will symbolise the value and victory of legitimate resistance against the Israeli occupation. The Arab regimes will find it very difficult to suppress the enthusiasm that will engulf their people. It does not seem as if such considerations are yet clear to most of the Israeli public.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s use of the occupation army and negotiators as pawns in his own political games is expected to dissuade them from achieving their goals and is likely to discourage them. This will increase the public’s sense that their government has lost its legitimacy as the strength of the opposition grows. The unruly political noise that generally accompanies the decision-making process in this Israeli government has undermined its credibility.

Strategic and political assessments of the war a year after its outbreak confirm the validity of the criticism of its course and the alternatives that were proposed. Israel faced an existential threat on 7 October 2023, it is claimed, but many Israelis believe that the war has revealed even more weaknesses of the state rather than strengths. Its standing and image regionally and internationally has been damaged profoundly. The world has been shocked by what has been done to the Palestinians in Gaza by the occupation state. Massive demonstrations have taken place in response to the first-ever genocide witnessed in real time on social media.

Governments sympathetic to the occupation regime have been weakened due to their complicity in the genocide.

In turn, this has undermined the legitimacy of the occupation, as have the irresponsible and illegal statements made about starving the people of Gaza, destroying it forever, deporting Palestinians, annexing parts of Gaza, and re-settling the territory. This has increased international criticism of the war, even as internal dissent takes on new meaning because of the daily losses of soldiers and equipment, placing a huge operational, logistical and financial burden on Israel. The occupation regime’s statements regarding full victory are unrealistic and can only lead to more disappointment and frustration for its own citizens, while inflicting potentially fatal damage on Israel’s military deterrent factor upon which it has depended for decades.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.