Trump’s Middle East playbook: Israel, Iran and the new geopolitical game

The 2024 election of Donald Trump as US president signals significant shifts in US foreign policy towards the Middle East, particularly in the context of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Drawing from his previous term (2017-2021) and recent campaign pronouncements, Trump’s approach is expected to favour assertive measures against perceived threats from Iran, a strong endorsement of Israel’s security and a potential continuation of the Abraham Accords framework aimed at regional normalisation. Unlike his first term, the Middle East is in flux, with the conflict between Israel and Iran snowballing into a regional security crisis.

Policy reorientation towards Iran

During Trump’s first term, his administration implemented a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and imposing stringent economic sanctions – approximately 1,500 sanctions were imposed on Iran, as well as on foreign companies and individuals conducting business with it. This strategy significantly restricted Iran’s economic capabilities and aimed to curtail its influence in the region.

Trump has often cited the increased security challenges in the region under the Joe Biden administration as evidence of the need for a tougher stance on Iran. He argues that Iran’s growing assertiveness, including its support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, could have been mitigated under his regime. During the campaign, Trump criticised the Biden administration for lifting certain sanctions. He denounced Vice President Kamala Harris after Iran’s October 2024 missile strike on Israel, calling her and Biden “grossly incompetent” and warning they are “leading [the US] to the brink of World War III.”

To a certain extent, Trump has indicated a willingness to strike a deal with Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear capabilities. While Iran has denied allegations of its involvement in the US elections, during his campaign trail, Trump vowed to “destroy” Iran if it threatened a US election candidate, citing “serious threats” from the nation. This hard-line stance, combined with his preference for punitive measures over multilateral diplomacy, suggests that Trump’s policy may focus on renewed isolation of Iran, which he argues is essential for regional stability. Further, Iran fears Trump’s win could lead to Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and increased Western sanctions.

Strengthening US-Israel relations

A cornerstone of Trump’s Middle East policy has been his unwavering support for Israel. In his first term, Trump took unprecedented steps to strengthen US-Israel ties, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem (recognising it as Israel’s capital) and endorsing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. He withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, halted funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) aiding Palestinian refugees and exited the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) over what he described as an excessive focus on Israel. He also introduced a 2020 Israel-Palestine peace plan criticised by Palestinian leaders, who argued that it heavily favoured Israel and undermined their claim to Jerusalem. These moves were well-received by many within Israel and among his domestic base, as they symbolised a shift in US policy that placed strong, unconditional support for Israel above traditional diplomatic balances.

Trump’s role in brokering the Abraham Accords—a series of normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain—further solidified his legacy as a pro-Israel leader. He played a pivotal role in bringing the only democratic nation on par with other Sunni monarchies in the region. These accords, achieved in 2020, were seen as a strategic move to foster regional peace by strengthening ties between Israel and Arab nations aligned against Iran. In his recent campaign, Trump expressed interest in expanding these accords and suggested that he could even include Iran in future agreements, though he offered limited specifics on how this would be achieved.

With the current escalation between Israel and Hamas, Trump’s stance is expected to prioritise military and economic support for Israel, potentially reinforcing its actions against Hamas while deterring other regional actors, like Iran, from intervening. Trump’s policies may involve pressuring Gulf allies to take a firmer stance against Hamas and similar groups, which he considers direct threats to both Israeli and US interests.

Impact on broader regional dynamics

During his first term as president, Trump’s foreign policy towards the Middle East emphasised counterterrorism, opposition to radical groups and a strong military presence to maintain US influence. He suggested that he would seek to reinforce these priorities by consolidating alliances against Iran’s “axis of resistance,” which includes Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups supported by Iran. This coalition-building approach reflects his commitment to a security-first approach to the region, where military readiness and the threat of economic sanctions are key tools in advancing US interests.

In his recent campaign, Trump also highlighted his belief that stability in the Middle East is directly tied to a firm US presence and clear deterrence strategies. This outlook could see a ramp-up of military aid to key allies, increased pressure on Iran-aligned militias in Iraq and Syria and a continued presence of US forces in strategic locations across the Middle East. Such moves may stabilise certain areas but also risk deepening divisions within the region, as Trump’s policies may be perceived as favouring one side in longstanding sectarian conflicts.

Prospects for diplomacy and regional integration

While Trump’s administration may adopt a more confrontational stance, he has indicated openness to encouraging regional cooperation among US allies, potentially building on the Abraham Accords. His campaign rhetoric includes aspirations for broader regional integration, though such goals may be tempered by his adversarial stance on Iran.

Gulf countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar may see Trump’s return as a chance to boost their regional influence with US support. While they aim to maintain strategic autonomy by steering clear of direct involvement in conflicts, Trump’s policies could complicate their diplomatic balance with the US. Should Trump seek to extend the accords, he would likely focus on persuading additional Gulf states and possibly Saudi Arabia to formalise ties with Israel, a move that could counterbalance Iran’s influence.

However, this strategy could be complicated by ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hamas, as well as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, which has garnered international condemnation. Trump’s emphasis on security and deterrence over humanitarian considerations could limit his ability to engage with nations that advocate for Palestinian rights and a negotiated peace.

Trump’s return to the presidency is likely to signal a more hard-line US foreign policy in the Middle East, focusing on containing Iran, supporting Israel and forging alliances through frameworks like the Abraham Accords. While his policies may resonate with certain US allies in the region, they also risk escalating tensions with Iran and deepening divides over the Israel-Palestine conflict. As Trump prepares to re-enter office, his approach will face the challenge of balancing regional security interests with the complex, evolving dynamics of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.