What does Assad's downfall mean for Sisi's regime?

The fall of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime last week has triggered contrasting reactions in Egypt. While the Egyptian public has welcomed the development with joy and hope, the ruling circles are visibly anxious and fearful. This dichotomy reflects Egyptian aspirations for potential change from the iron grip that’s working on prolonging the rule of President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi.

Over the past decade, tens of thousands of Sisi’s opponents have languished in prisons that opposition groups describe as resembling Syria’s notorious Sednaya Prison. Human rights reports indicate hundreds of deaths in custody due to medical negligence and torture.

Cairo’s response to the Syrian developments has been cautious and apprehensive, adopting a tone of fear about the possible division of Syria and the spread of terrorism. It also cast doubt on the accounts of Syrians regarding the torture they endured in Assad’s prisons.

One journalist and parliamentarian close to the Egyptian authorities, Mostafa Bakry, warned on his TV show “Facts and Secret” broadcast on private satellite channel Sada El-Balad, that, “If Damascus falls, Cairo must prepare for a battle of destiny.” He expressed his sadness over Assad’s downfall and scepticism about the crimes committed in an article under the headline “The Story of Sednaya Prison: Facts or Fiction”.

Another media personality threatened Syrians in Egypt with deportation if they celebrated Assad’s fall

Similarly, Amr Adib warned on his show “The Story” on MBC Egypt that Syria’s future could involve division or the total collapse of state institutions. Another media personality with ties to the Egyptian security agencies, Ahmed Moussa, threatened Syrians in Egypt with deportation if they celebrated Assad’s fall, claiming on Sada El-Balad that Syria is on the verge of civil war.

Aside from warnings about the Syrian scenario, Egyptian TV channels avoided covering celebrations of Assad’s downfall. They continued to air entertainment and sports programmes as if nothing significant was happening in a fellow Arab nation with close ties to Egypt.

On the ground, heightened security measures were evident in Greater Cairo, with the authorities preventing Syrian residents from celebrating. According to the NGO Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, 30 Syrians in 6th of October City were arrested at random. There are approximately 1.5 million Syrians in Egypt, mainly in Greater Cairo, where they work in commerce and industry, particularly in 6th of October City west of the capital.

READ: Syria retains 26 tons of gold reserves after Assad’s fall — sources

Politically, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement expressing concern over Syria’s situation, reaffirming Egypt’s support for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while urging all Syrian parties to prioritise the nation’s interests. Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Aty restated support for the Syrian state recently, its sovereignty and the unity and integrity of its territories, during a phone call with the former regime’s Foreign Minister, Bassam Sabbagh. This was just days before the collapse of the Syrian army and the loss of an opportunity to coordinate and accelerate joint support with Gulf allies to save Assad.

Ever since the 2013 coup, the Egyptian regime has used scare tactics encapsulated in the phrase, “So that we don’t become like Syria or Iraq,” to justify its authoritarian grip. This scare tactic has been used heavily in the electoral and media campaigns of the current president to intimidate Egyptians with the Syrian scenario and to push them to accept the formula of “authoritarianism in exchange for security”.

That propaganda has collapsed, and the scare tactic has now shifted to Al-Sisi’s regime, which fears the resurgence of hope among the 25 January, 2011 revolutionaries who toppled the rule of the late President Hosni Mubarak. What is happening in Syria reflects genuine concerns in Cairo about the potential success of such an experience, which could, in the future, become a model to be emulated in neighbouring countries.

The Syrian revolution proved that the people, not the army, are the foundation of the state

Gamal Sultan is an Egyptian opposition figure who lives abroad. “One of the biggest fears of the ruling regime in Egypt now is that the success of the Syrian revolution undermines their repeated claim that ‘Egypt is the army, and if the army collapses, the state is lost’,” he wrote on Facebook. “In Syria, the army dissolved, but the state survived. People’s living conditions improved, life became more organised, and institutions started functioning normally again. The Syrian revolution proved that the people, not the army, are the foundation of the state.”

The Egyptian president warned once again during a meeting with army and police leaders last Sunday, “Those who make decisions in Syria are the people of the country, they can either destroy it or rebuild it.”

In 2016, Al-Sisi declared his support for the Syrian army, emphasising that supporting national armies was one of Egypt’s priorities. He also led regional efforts to lift the international isolation of Assad and restore Syria’s membership at the Arab League in May 2023.

In light of this, developments in Syria remain troubling and perhaps frightening for the Egyptian president, who likely did not anticipate such a swift collapse of Assad’s regime. He was, after all, standing beside him in the group photo of leaders at the Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh last month.

With security concerns dominating the Egyptian position, fears are intensifying over the potential emergence of revolutionary waves that could spark popular movements on the streets. These movements might succeed in returning to Tahrir Square — the iconic symbol of the January 2011 Revolution — especially with the 14th anniversary of the revolution approaching next month.

Political analyst Mohamed El-Sayed explained Egypt’s concern over the success of the Syrian revolution as reflecting the stance of counter-revolution states that fight against Islamists. Part of this concern, he noted, stems from comparisons between Syria’s Sednaya Prison and Badr Prison east of Cairo, which has been dubbed “Egypt’s Sednaya”. There is also fear that the scenario where an army that’s been driven by an individual like Bashar al-Assad collapses, could happen in Egypt. There is concern that the Egyptian army might collapse under the weight of public anger or simply in order to sacrifice Al-Sisi.

Demoralised and abandoned by allies: why Assad’s army failed to fight in Syria

In addition to fears that the Syrian revolution might inspire Egyptians, the situation becomes even more complex with the growing Turkish influence in Syria, the collapse of the Syrian army, and the control of Islamic factions over the situation there. These developments do not serve Egypt’s national security and place significant pressure on Al-Sisi’s regime.

Israel’s chief of staff and the head of its Shin Bet internal security agency visited Cairo last week to discuss with Egyptian officials the repercussions of Assad’s ousting and the need to take preventive measures. This comes amid fears of a renewed uprising in other countries, including Egypt, according to the Israeli newspaper Maariv.

Meanwhile, there are positive signals for the Egyptian opposition following the fall of Assad. These could translate into actions on the ground, not by replicating the Syrian experience, but by learning from it to reorganise opposition ranks and agree on a roadmap for national salvation.

There are growing calls for the regime in Cairo to implement major reforms

According to a prominent Egyptian opposition figure who spoke to me on condition of anonymity, the success of the Syrian revolution has revived hope among advocates of change in the region, especially in Egypt, after years of despair. There are growing calls for the regime in Cairo to implement major reforms urgently to save itself and Egypt from a similar fate.

The Egyptian opposition hopes that the fall of Assad will drive real progress in the country, helping Egypt to avoid the Syrian scenario. This would spare the army from any potential confrontation with the Egyptian people and create a suitable environment for comprehensive national reconciliation.

The Socialist Popular Alliance Party has proposed a roadmap to this end, starting with restoring freedoms, releasing prisoners of conscience, lifting restrictions on political parties and unions, ensuring media freedom and judicial independence, and forming a government and parliament that express the people’s will, away from the control of the security agencies. It also calls for a return to the 2014 Constitution to ensure limits on the president’s term in office and powers.

A former advisor to the minister of local development questioned whether the Egyptian regime will learn from the Syrian experience. In a Facebook post, Essam Lala said that Egypt can avoid Syria’s fate by “establishing elected institutions that are accountable, imposing strict oversight to ensure adherence to laws without discrimination or favouritism, eliminating special privileges for any party, and employing qualified professionals without linking their selection to political or security loyalties.” He added that it also requires building a civil state that depends on pluralism and the peaceful transfer of power.”

Finally, the Egyptian regime may delay rapprochement with the new authority in Syria, but such hesitation may not be wise regarding reconciliation with its own people. Positive steps are needed to diffuse the growing but still hidden anger caused by the continued detention of thousands of innocent people, worsening economic and living conditions, and the increasing dominance of the generals over the nation’s wealth.

READ: Lebanon to reopen embassy in Damascus following Syrian regime collapse

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.